Speculation is rising that Russia, after discussions with Turkey and Germany, is backing away from support of a pro-Assad offensive to recapture Idlib Province in northwest Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited German Chancellor Angela Merkel outside Berlin on Saturday. The two leaders issued a brief statement afterwards which focused on assistance to displaced Syrians, rather than the assault desired by the Assad regime.
Merkel said it was important to avert a humanitarian crisis in Idlib, with an estimated population of more than 2.5 million Syrians, many displaced from other areas of the country. She said talks also noted constitutional reforms and possible elections, the topics of their last discussion in May.
Even more importantly, Putin avoided a focus on “terrorists” and “extremists” — the labels used by Russia to justify past attacks on opposition territory, breaking de-escalation agreements — to tell reporters that all efforts must be for the return of refugees and Syria’s reconstruction.
Russia’s assistance is essential for any offensive on Idlib, the last major opposition area after the fall of East Ghouta near Damascus and much of southern Syria this spring and summer. The Assad regime’s army has been unable to advance without Russian airstrikes devastating civilian areas as well as attacking rebels.
Moscow has given different signals in recent weeks. At the end of July, Alexander Lavrentyev, the Russian envoy for Syria, said, “Any large-scale operation in Idlib is out of the question.”
See Russia Dampens Talk of Idlib Offensive…For Now
But on August 10, Russian and regime warplanes bombed and shelled across Idlib and neighboring western Aleppo Province, killing more than 30 civilians. Both pro-Assad activists and the opposition spoke of the attacks as a prelude to the ground assault.
The greatest barrier to such an offensive appears to be Turkey, whose military forces are alongside the opposition in Idlib and parts of western Aleppo and northern Hama Provinces.
Last week Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pressed Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu to accept the attacks, saying action must be taken against “terrorists” purportedly firing on Russian forces from Idlib.
Çavuşoğlu held firm, however: “It would be a massacre to bomb Idlib, civilians, hospitals, schools just because there are terrorists….We need to differentiate between moderate rebels and radicals.”
On Wednesday, the Turkish military reportedly told local elders in the area that there will be no ground assault and that Ankara is moving anti-aircraft weapons near its 12 observation posts to deter further strikes.
See Syria Daily, August 15: Russia Presses for Pro-Assad Offensive on Idlib, Turkey Says No (For Now)
Syria Daily, August 16: Opposition — Turkey Guaranteeing No Pro-Assad Offensive on Idlib
