Having occupied much of East Ghouta near Damascus, Russia and the Assad regime returned their attention to northwest Syria on Saturday, stepping up airstrikes.
Attacks were reported across northern Hama Province, including in the al-Ghab Plain and near Lataminah, and neighboring Idlib Province. There wer strikes on Jisr al-Shughour and on Ariha, where a woman, her child, and an elderly man displaced from East Ghouta were killed.
Pro-Assad forces, enabled by Russian aerial operations, pursued an offensive into Idlib Province over the winter, taking part of the southeast. The ground assault was suspended in January so the regime and its foreign allies could concentrate their forces against East Ghouta.
The opposition captured almost all of Idlib Province in spring 2015, a success which came close to breaking the regime’s military and forcing the departure of Bashar al-Assad. Russian intervention and escalated Iranian involvement saved the situation for Assad, preventing further rebel victories and then gradually eroding the opposition’s position.
In summer 2015, Russian, Turkey, and Iran declared a “de-escalation zone” for Idlib; however, the Assad regime never adhered to the arrangement and Moscow soon borke the terms with its airstrikes.
Turkish forces, having allied with rebels in an offensive in neighboring Aleppo Province from August 2016, have entered Idlib to set up a series of observation posts. Ankara hopes both to have leverage against the pro-Assad forces and to push back on Kurdish-led territory, following this with an offensive from January 2018 which has taken much of the Kurdish canton of Afrin.
Assad and the Ruskies will stop where Erdogan draws his line. The further he moves it forward now the more territory Turkey will take from Assad and the more room the rebels will have to live and re-group.
It is doubtful that Erdogan will defend Idlib because there he would have to confront the Ruskies and he is too chicken for that. He will draw the line between Idlib and Afrin. So when Assad occupies Idlib, the Islamists and FSA will move north and settle in Afrin. Afrin has been cleansed and a lot of homes and property are vacant, which is where Erdogan will settle his fellow Islamists from Idlib.
Erdogan has been successful in having the secular FSA fight the secular Kurds and kill each other, and thus paving the way for Islamists to settle and take over Afrin and also North Aleppo. Ethnic cleansing and Islamification happening right under our noses.
Erdogan is not letting Kurds return back to their homes in Afrin.