PHOTO: Will President Obama approve supply of advanced weapons to Syria’s rebels?

US officials say they will press President Obama to provide Syria’s rebels with advanced weapons, including anti-aircraft systems, if a cessation of hostilities breaks down.

The Wall Street Journal cited the officials in a Tuesday article claiming the CIA and countries near Syria — including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, leading backers of the rebellion — have drawn up plans for arms that can defend against the Assad regime’s warplanes and artillery.

Some US military and intelligence officials have said since February that they were devising a “Plan B” to counter Russia’s intervention supporting the regime. The proposals were discussed by intelligence officials in the Middle East just before the cessation of hostilities on February 27, and in subsequent exchanges between intelligence services.

The US officials said they provided partners with provisional assurances of the expanded support, but President Obama must still approve the list of specific weapons systems. The CIA made clear that the arms will only be delivered if political talks fail and fighting resumes across Syria.

“The agreement is to up the ante, if needed,” a senior US official said, while noting that the Administration’s emphasis is still pursuing the success of the talks in Geneva.

While the US has provided limited amounts of arms to rebels since 2013, President Obama has repeatedly turned down proposals for more extensive support. He has rejected plans for no-fly zones since 2012, as well as significant intervention after the Assad regime’s chemical weapons attacks in August 2013. Since 2014, he has put emphasis on action against the Islamic State, rather than the Syrian military and its allies.

The President said, in a lengthy article published in The Atlantic last month, that he was “very proud” of his caution over intervention, including after the chemical attacks near Damascus that killed more than 1,400 people.

See Syria Special: “Very Proud” Obama Sells Out Allies and Millions of Syrians

US Priority Still With Political Talks

Secretary of State John Kerry told counterparts in Gulf States last week that the White House is still dedicated to maintaining the ceasefire. He urged Saudi, Qatari, and other regional officials to use their influence with rebel factions for continued adherence and participation in the Geneva talks.

The discussions, brokered by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura are scheduled to resume this week. However, the Assad regime has already made clear that they will not discuss any proposal including the departure of the President from power.

Meanwhile, rebels and Jabhat al-Nusra have seized the initiative on an important front south of Aleppo city, reversing some of the gains from the regime-Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah offensive from last autumn.

See Syria Daily, April 11: Rebels-Nusra Defeat Iranian-Led Force on South Aleppo Front

US Message to Russia: “Rebels Will Not Disappear”

The American officials said Washington has told Russia — including messages from Kerry and CIA Director John Brennan — that the Syrian rebels will not disappear, and that renewed battles could jeopardize Russian pilots.

“If the cease-fire collapses, if the negotiations don’t go anywhere, and we’re back to full throttle civil war, all bets will be off,” a senior Obama administration official said of the message to Moscow. “The outside patrons will double and triple down, throwing everything they can into Syria, including much more lethal weaponry.”

Two Russian-made regime warplanes have been downed since mid-March by rebels using portable MANPADS systems, the first time that anti-aircraft weapons have been used by the rebellion.

The officials said the assurances to Turkey and Saudi Arabia were twinned with warnings not to act independently of the US.

Rebels have captured some MANPADS from the Syrian military since 2012, but reports indicate that Saudi Arabia may have provided a limited number of the systems since late 2015.

The CIA’s assessment is that the rebels have obtained a few MANPADS through “illicit channels”.