Amid growing signs that the US is preparing for the fall of the Kurdish center of Kobane in northern Syria — and preparing to blame Turkey for the Islamic State’s takeover — I was one of the analysts speaking on Wednesday to the Voice of Russia about the situation.

We differed in our perspectives, with the British-based Turkish analyst Tunc Aybak focusing on Ankara’s “deliberate strategic negligence”, Turkish analyst Bunyamin Esen noting Ankara’s “legitimate issues”, and my comment about the debate beyond the Islamic State and Kobane:

If you don’t deal with Assad, you don’t get rid of the problem. What [Turkey is] trying to do is lever [the Kobane crisis] and deal with this question of intervention against Assad which has been held up for two years. Unless the US goes some way in meeting Turkish concerns, Kobane will fall.

The article is reprinted below, and the audio version can be heard on the Voice of Russia’s website:


“Unless the US Goes Some Way in Meeting Turkish Concerns, Kobane Will Fall”
Brendan Cole

The United Nations envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has made a passionate plea for international help to stop the Islamic State from seizing Kobane.

The stakes could not be higher.

Seizing the entire town would give the IS jihadists full control of a long stretch of the Syrian-Turkish border.

This would mean more foreign fighters could get into Syria and it would allow the jihadists to traffic oil from oilfields it has captured.

Turkey has come under pressure to do more to help the Kurdish forces fighting in Kobane.

At least 21 people have been killed in riots across Turkey, the deadliest street unrest in years, after the Kurdish minority rose up in fury at the government’s refusal to protect a besieged Syrian town from Islamic State.

Tunc Aybak is an adviser at the UK-based Centre for Turkey Studies.

He says that Turkey has adopted a strategy of deliberate strategic negligence because it considers the spill over of Kurdish autonomy into Turkish territory a major threat.

He told VoR: “The reason why Turkey is sitting on its hands and not intervening is to check the growing influence of the Kurds as a strategic ally of the West.”

Turkey has been trying to secure a buffer zone under its control and actively lobbied the US government to establish a no-fly zone on its border with Syria.

But Dr Aybak said President Erdogan wants to avoid a confrontation with the Syrian Kurds which might undermine the peace process with Turkish Kurds.

He said: “Turkey has adopted an ambiguous strategy. If the US serves Turkish interests, perhaps then Turkey is more willing to cooperate. We are sailing in uncharted waters.”

The competing interests for Ankara are tricky to balance.

While it is concerned at the rise of ISIS along its borders and has to deal with floods of refugees should Kobane fall, it would be difficult for Turkey to allow its territory to be a logistical base for Kurdish fighters.

That is the view of Bunyamin Esen, a writer at the Turkish newspaper the Daily Sabah and PhD candidate in Political Science and International Relations at Bogazici University.

He told VoR: “The Turkish government has some legitimate issues. According to international law, the PKK and the PYD is deemed a terrorist organisations and Turkey cannot provide weapons to them. Turkey has done a lot, 200,000 people who have fled from Kobane have come to Turkey which is trying to give them humanitarian help.”

Turkey views the crisis in Kobane as a small piece in a wider picture that includes tackling the threat of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Bunyamin Esen from the Turkish newspaper the Daily Sabah told VoR: “Turkey has to find a balance between its minority Kurdish demands and international demands. Turkey is very concerned about a possible 400,000 people going from Kobane to Turkey.”

Perceiving a lack of Turkish support for the Kurds in Kobane, there have been urban uprisings in eastern towns with up to 20 people killed and curfews declared.

Scott Lucas, founding editor of the Middle Eastern analysis website EA Worldview, says that Turkey is not reluctant to get involved but is simply putting conditions on that involvement.

He told VoR: “What the Turks have told the US is that they will back intervention provide that support against the insurgents is not just against the Islamic State but also against the Assad regime.”

The Turkish position is balancing a desire to solve its own internal Kurdish question, especially as a peace process with them is to be discussed next year.

“The most disruptive influence in Turkish eyes right now is Assad,” says Scott Lucas. “If you don’t deal with Assad, you don’t get rid of the problem. What they are trying to do is lever this and deal with this question of intervention against Assad which has been held up for two years. Unless the US goes some way in meeting Turkish concerns, Kobane will fall.”

The symbolism of that happening would be enormous as the Kurds would feel betrayed making it hard to rebuild Syria.

The Islamic State would treat it as a major victory and it would bolster their operations in Iraq and Syria.

Scott Lucas of EA Worldview says that the Kurds do not want ground forces, they want weapons.

“What a lot of the media don’t realise is that the Free Syrian Army is also in Kobane. So you are talking about giving a number of weapons to groups inside Kobane, so you have to release this choke-hold on supplying weapons that has been maintained for many months regarding the insurgents.”

President Erdogan has said that that air power alone could not defeat IS.

If Kobane does fall, Turkey is likely to face a massive backlash from its Kurdish population.

The Turkish parliament last week authorised the government to take military action against ISIS.

But Ankara still has not announced plans for any operations and anticipation is building over what it will do next.