PHOTO: Islamic State fighters at the captured Omar oilfield in eastern Syria

In one of the worst weeks for the Syrian opposition since last August’s chemical weapons attacks, insurgents lost ground to the Islamic State in eastern Syria and to regime forces near Aleppo.

Bolstered by its successes in neighboring Iraq, the Islamic State moved along the Euphrates River from the border town of Al Bukamal, as insurgents withdrew. By the end of the week, the insurgency had lost almost all of its positions and was under pressure in Deir Ez Zor city, where the Syrian military is also present.

Meanwhile, the Islamic State is beginning to challenge key Kurdish positions. It is attacking Kobane on the Turkish border, as both side claims they have inflicted casualties on the enemy. The Kurdistan Communities Union has called on Kurds from Iraq, Iran, and Turkey as well as Syria to come to the defense of the town.

Having refrained from attacks on the Islamic State as the Iraqi-led group cleared away insurgents, the Assad regime is confronting the prospect of the Islamic State’s hold on eastern Syria and control of resources and oilfields. Reports of Syrian airstrikes on Islamic State positions are circulating, but as yet there is no evidence of a sustained attack.

Near Aleppo, the Syrian military finally succeeded, after months of attacks, in its takeover of the Sheikh Najjar industrial area, and it is now advancing on an insurgent-held Infantry School. The advance not only returns factories to the regime; it supports the aim of cutting off insurgents in the eastern half of Aleppo after two years of occupation.

In a further sign of the emphasis on the ground offensive, civilian casualties from air attacks fell sharply this week, with less than 50 fatalities on each of the last three days.

Insurgents and opposition political groups are warning that, if they do not receive assistance, the prospect is of a Syria divided between the Islamic State and Assad. So far, there has been little response from the US beyond President Obama’s token request of $500 million from Congress and a focus on “counter-terrorism”.

Some analysts are insisting that aid will only benefit the Islamic State, as it has defeated the insurgency and opposition, while former officials are talking of an alliance with Assad to confront the jihadists.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation is worsening, despite last week’s fall in civilian deaths. The United Nations issued a report warning that, with more than half of the Syrian population displaced or living as refugees, 6.6 million children in the region need assistance because of the crisis.

FORECAST

Insurgents are now trying to bolster frontlines in Homs, Hama, and Aleppo Provinces, using fighters who have withdrawn from the east. Whether they can hold those lines is uncertain, and insurgent advances elsewhere in Syria — notably in the southwest — have slowed.

This is far from a defeat of the insurgency. Near Damascus, commanders such as the head of the Islamic Front’s military branch, Zahran Alloush, are promising a fight against both the Islamic State and the regime, and so far the Syrian military — which may be concentrating on the push near Aleppo — has not broken through the insurgent lines east of the capital.

However, the draining effect of the battle with the Islamic State since January is now evident, and the insurgency faces the PR disadvantage of an Islamic State which can claim success — and significant financial assets — as it tries to draw away fighters.

Months of US hesitancy in support of the insurgency, to the point of blocking supplies and weapons, have been reinforced by the Islamic State’s advance. Despite continuing rhetoric from Washington that it wishes to back a “moderate” fight against Assad and the Islamic State, there is no prospect of substantial American aid, and the insurgency’s key supporters such as the Gulf States and Turkey are exercising caution. Perhaps most importantly, the insurgents can not longer count on renewing their stocks with weapons and material captured from regime positions.

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