I spoke with BBC outlets on Tuesday and Wednesday about President Obama’s mandate of up to $1 billion to increase troop deployments and exercises in Europe.

BBC West Midlands: Listen from 2:09.30
BBC Coventry and Warwickshire: Listen from 1:17.25
BBC Wales: Listen from 1:22.24

Analysis? The decision is far from sudden: the US, European partners, and NATO have been planning a firm response to Russian pressure on Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea and encouragement of separatism in the east of the country.

Obama’s announcement is the culmination of those plans — not only to protect Ukraine but also to warn Moscow not to move on its neighbors, such as Georgia and Moldova, and definitely not to threaten NATO members such as the Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

So what will Russia do?