Syria Analysis: A Trip to Moscow Reveals Assad-Russia Strategy for Victory

“The visit to Moscow, and Deputy Prime Minister Jamil’s comments, can be seen as part of a wider strategy by Damascus and its ally Russia to present the Assad regime as the legitimate government of Syria, in full control of the country, and with an agenda of ending the conflict.

During a visit to Moscow this past week, Syrian Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil made a number of statements indicating that the Assad regime believes the Syrian crisis will soon have a political resolution.

While fighting continued — and even intensified — across the country, with a regime-imposed siege on opposition-controlled towns in the Damascus suburbs and little indication that Assad’s forces are making gains in key areas of Aleppo, Idlib and Dar’aa Provinces, Jamil told reporters in Moscow that the Geneva II peace conference would take place in late November, an assertion optimistic at best, given that the opposition National Coalition has said it will not attend unless Assad steps down.

On Saturday, Jamil went even further, telling Russia’s State-owned Golos Rossii that he expected peace by 2015.

The visit to Moscow, and Jamil’s comments, can be seen as part of a wider strategy by Damascus and its ally Russia to present the Assad regime as the legitimate government of Syria, in full control of the country, and with an agenda of ending the conflict. It is significant that Jamil — as he points out in his interview — is not a member of Assad’s Baath Party, but a member of the Popular Front for Change and Liberation, ostensibly an opposition party but in practice closely allied with the National Progressive Front, the Baath Party-dominated coalition.

Jamil has previously said that he said he supports change that takes place gradually and under the leadership of President Bashar Al Assad.

The full text of Jamil’s interview with Golos Rossii is translated below:

GR:

Please tell us about the results of your visit to Moscow. And by the way , ask what was the status of your visit – the state or the party ? That is, you represented the government or the opposition?

Jamil:

The Syrian government has not authorized me to discuss any specific questions, I do not answer to the government for in terms of a political component. In the government, my area of responsibility is economic issues. So this visit was purely a party visit, I was here as a representative of the Popular Front.

GR:

Nevertheless, could you briefly describe the current situation in the Syrian economy?

Jamil:

The economic situation in the country is dependent on the security situation. It is impossible to solve the economic problems without resolving sensitive political issues and, of course, without solving security-related problems. We need stability. It is also necessary to solve the issue of the international economic sanctions. All of these factors combine into an extremely negative effect on the economic situation. The actual situation is very difficult, the impact of external factors is also very significant. A way out of this impasse is possible only through a political solution through dialog.

In this sense, the main attention is focussed on the Second Geneva Conference on Syria. Now it is certain that this conference will still be convened. International and regional players are already aware that it is not possible to solve the Syrian problem by military means, but only through negotiations.

GR:

That, as I understand it, is the point of view of the “internal” Syrian opposition . Meanwhile, the external opposition in the form of the Syrian National Council has refused to participate in the Geneva conference. What is the current relationship between the internal and external opposition, do you have any points in common?

Jamil:

There is a relationship of sorts between the internal and external opposition, but as far as points of contact are concerned, that’s more complex. The external opposition is guided by a number of foreign players, while the interior is guided by its supporters inside the country. External actors give their counterparts in the external opposition specific tasks relevant to their interests, but which are completely infeasible in Syria under the prevailing conditions. Our position is based on an analysis of the situation in the country. Therefore, the points of contact between us are very rare. In addition, the external opposition — as you correctly pointed out — are in fact divided in their views regarding participation in the Geneva Conference.

GR:

Is it possible to convene the Geneva Conference, without the participation of some or other representatives from the external opposition?

Jamil:

The convening of the Geneva Conference is a done deal, international powers have agreed that its convocation is necessary. As stated, the doors of the conference will be open to all who are not indifferent to the fate of Syria. Those who refuse to take part, will find themselves on the sidelines of the new political reality and will doom themselves to failure and isolation. Geneva II in the first place must ban the export of mercenaries, weapons and money to Syria, that is to close the borders to them. If that happens, then we can say that the situation in Syria will start to return to normal. It is the duty of the international community.

GR:
There is a lot of information about how many people fled Syria during the war. Do you know the exact number, are we talking about millions of people?

Jamil:

No, those numbers are inflated. Inside Syria, there are about five million internally displaced persons. Those people who left their homes and are in border areas in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, I think, no more than two million.

GR:

Do you agree that Syria is really facing a humanitarian disaster?

Jamil:

In some areas, we can speak of a humanitarian disaster. The country first and foremost needs flour, sugar, rice and medicines. Syria’s real friends are helping, countries like Russia, Iran, China.

GR:

In Syria, the process of disarmament is very expensive — the country itself can not cope financially with this issue. Which countries have already expressed their desire to help Damascus?

Jamil:

Russia has declared its readiness to help in this matter. I think the international community should take a serious part in it. Because it is very costly, Syria is in a tough position. To date, the UN experts chemical weapons prohibition have carried out inspections on half the facilities in Syria, and the process of destruction of chemical weapons has started. I think that by the middle of next year, this work will be completed.

GR:

Have some members of the opposition deliberately disrupted this process?

Jamil:

Some members of the opposition did not want an end to the violence in Syria, so they are trying to find different reasons to disrupt the political process, including this.

GR:

What are your expectations for the future of Syria, when do you expect there to be an end to the conflict ?

Jamil:

I think within the next year, we will be able to get out of the crisis and begin to lift Syria up from the ruins.

GR:

So you expect that Syrians will see peace by2015?

Jamil:

Yes. It must be so .