Iran Presidential candidates Masoud Pezeshkian (L) and Saeed Jalili
UPDATE 1115 GMT:
Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili will contest the runoff to become Iran’s President.
Official results give Pezeshkian 10,415,991 votes (42.5%). Jalili has 9,473,298 (38.6%).
Conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Ghalibaf was a distant third with 3,383,340 votes. Former Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi was awarded only 206,397.
The total of 24,535,185 valid votes points to a turnout of 40.2%, breaking the historic low of 48.8% in the 2021 Presidential contest.
UPDATE 0651 GMT:
In the latest vote count, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian maintains a lead over hardliner Saeed Jalili, with the two men comfortably heading to a run-off.
UPDATE
Latest results released by the Interior Ministry show that presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian is now ahead of three other candidates, with 8,302,577 votes. #IranVotes2024 pic.twitter.com/ycr9LVdtsz
— Iran Election 2024 (@PressTVElection) June 29, 2024
ORIGINAL ENTRY: In a surprise development, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili are leading in the first round of Iran’s President election.
Pezeshkian, an MP and former Health Minister has 5,955,781 votes. Jalili, best known as Iran’s lead nuclear negotiator and Secretary of the National Security Council, has 5,560,321.
Conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is a distant third with 1,891,385 votes. Conservative former Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi has 111,967.
The top two candidates proceed to a run-off, unless one has a majority of all valid votes.
See also A Beginner’s Guide to Iran’s “Managed” Presidential Election
Pezeshkian initially appeared to be a token reformist candidate — all others were blocked by the Guardian Council, which carries out vetting on behalf of Iran’s leadership — in the hope of boosting voter turnout past the historic lows in recent elections.
The leadership appeared to judge that Pezeshkian would not have the charisma and policies to mobilize mass support. However, the Council may have miscalculated, with centrists and reformists able to rally around a single figure.
Other analysts believe that a strong first-round performance by Pezeshkian is acceptable to the regime, since he would lose to its preferred candidate in the run-off. And there are some who argue that Pezeshkian has curbed his views — for example, silence on the strict house arrests of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Zahra Rahnavard since February 2011 — so he has a chance of victory.
The other surprise so far is the poor performance of Ghalibaf, a high-profile candidate — this is his fourth run for the Presidency — who was close with Pezeshkian and Jalili in polling.
Earlier this week, some regime figures called for hardliners and conservatives to rally around a single candidate, apparently from concern about Pezeshkian’s unexpected strength in polling.
One hardline and one conservative dropped out. However, both Ghalibaf and Jalili refused to step aside.
Almost 15 million ballots have been counted so far — about 25% of the 61 million Iranians eligible to vote.
In 2021, official turnout of 48.8%, an all-time low since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979. Earlier this year, Parliamentary elections officially recorded 42% participation.
The election was called after the death last month of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, whom the Supreme Leader hailed as his “servant”, in a helicopter crash as he was returning from Azerbaijan.
A Return to the Past?
In 2009, Green Movement leader Mousavi, promising reform, appeared to lead the first round amid a surge of enthusiasm across Iran. However, the regime proclaimed that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had “won” with 63% of the vote.
More than a million Iranians took to the streets, calling for a fair election, rights, and reforms. The protests were eventually repressed by regime forces, with widespread detentions, scores of demonstrators slain, and the house arrests of Mousavi, fellow candidate Karroubi, and Mousavi’s wife, academic, and activist Rahnavard.
Four years later, the Council disqualified former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in an attempt to stem centrists and reformists. However, it allowed a consolation candidate, Rafsanjani’s protégé Hassan Rouhani.
The tactic backfired when Rouhani won a first-round victory, and the Supreme Leader — probably mindful of 2009 — decided not to intervene. Rouhani served two terms, and was succeeded by Raisi in 2021.
[Editor’s Note: Since 1997, Iran’s Guardian Council has rejected almost all reformist candidates for President.]
Like the editor of this site, Patrick Wintour of the Guardian asserts that “the decision to allow a reformist to stand was seen as a concession by the regime, which needed a more competitive election to try to lure voters to the polls.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/29/iran-heading-for-runoff-election-after-neither-lead-candidate-scores-majority
He had previously stated that the election would be managed to guarantee that the preferred candidate of Khamenei (i.e.Ghalibaf or Jalili) would win. That may well not happen as the nominated candidate of the reformists looks set to win the second round if enough of his supporters show up. The Guardians Council has always approved a reformist candidate since 1997.
There will be TWO live debates between Jalili and Pezeshkian to be held next Monday and Tuesday, respectively: https://www.isna.ir/news/1403040906132
“Pezeshkian initially appeared to be a token reformist candidate — all others were blocked by the Guardian Council, which carries out vetting on behalf of Iran’s leadership — in the hope of boosting voter turnout past the historic lows in recent elections. The leadership appeared to judge that Pezeshkian would not have the charisma and policies to mobilize mass support. However, the Council may have miscalculated, with centrists and reformists able to rally around a single figure.”
Pezeshkian ended up getting THREE times as many votes as Ghalibaf (whom many saw as Khamenei’s preferred candidate).
Now, the turnout was low which I attribute, partly, to the fact that it was a very hot day and also because surveys showed people did not know the correct date of the election which would normally have been announced several months in advance. Moreover, the authorities appear to have made no attempt to manipulate or inflate the vote tally – they have been entirely honest and transparent. The run-off next week may see a much higher turnout.
Keep leaking your wounds
I continue to be impressed by the complete integrity of the ballot box and election process. The run-off is a clearer choice for voters.
“I continue to be impressed by the complete integrity of the ballot box and election process. The run-off is a clearer choice for voters.”
Sometimes I wonder if people like you are really that stupids, or you think ordinary iranians are. I think you are the one that stupid for mistaking people’s patience for stupidity.
If they had announced a 50% turnout, few would have doubted this as the polls showed this was likely.