Hardliner Saeed Jalili: will he be the Supreme Leader’s choice to “win” Iran’s Presidential election?
Co-published with The Conversation:
The death in a helicopter crash of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi on May 19 has triggered an election for his successor on June 28, one year earlier than scheduled. It’s a consequential moment in Iranian politics — some observers believed that Raisi was being groomed to take over as Supreme Leader on the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85.
When registrations closed on June 3, 80 candidates had come forward – including, for the first time, a small number of women.
What does this long list tell us? At this point, the Supreme Leader’s office and its allies are keeping their options open on how to manage this election.
The regime is in a difficult position. It wants to ensure that, as with Raisi, it has a “servant” — the Supreme Leader’s label for the deceased President — who will dutifully follow Ayatollah Khamenei’s directions.
However, the regime needs a shroud of legitimacy. Having suppressed public expression since the mass protests after the disputed Presidential election of 2009, it is enduring the lowest turnouts in the history of the Islamic Republic. Only 48.5% of eligible voters turned out for the 2021 presidential election and even fewer – 41% – in the Parliamentary elections this year.
See also Beginner’s Guide: What Now for Iran’s Regime After Death of Its President?
EA on France 24 and Ireland’s RTE: How Significant is Death of Iran’s President Raisi?
Among the candidates is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliamentary speaker and former head of the Revolutionary Guards. He has registered, despite failing in three previous campaigns and in the face of opposition from hardline figures in the regime.
Other prominent candidates include Ali Larijani — a former parliamentary speaker who was disqualified by the Guardian Council in 2021 to ensure a clear path for eventual “winner” Ebrahim Raisi.
Current and former Parliament Speakers Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf and Ali Larijani: will either be allowed to run for the Presidency?
From the more moderate wing of the political spectrum, Eshaq Jahangiri, who was 1st Vice President in the government of reformist president Hassan Rouhani from 2013 to 2021, and centrist Abbas Akhoundi, another minister in Rouhani’s government, have also applied to be candidates.
From the hardline-conservative end of the spectrum, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was President from 2005 to 2013, has also registered. But it is likely that the regime, which disqualified him in 2017 and 2021, will do so again, given the tension between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad during his second four-year term.
Ensuring A “Hardline” President?
Saeed Jalili is likely to be a favorite of many hardliners. A former lead Iranian nuclear negotiator, he is now a fervent opponent of any interaction with the US. He’ll talk tough about Iran’s international position and about the crackdown on women’s rights and the enforcement of compulsory hijab at home.
But most of the 80 candidates whose applications have advanced are across a range beyond the “hardline”. Ghalibaf, a former mayor of Tehran, is more of a traditional conservative or “principlist”. Larijani, also a principlist rather than a hardliner, may attract centrist support. And Jahangiri is there as a representative for the reformists.
What matters is whom the Guardian Council decides is an “appropriate” candidate. The 12 members — six clerics named by the supreme leader, and six jurists named by the parliament — have consummate veto power. Their decisions on disqualification cannot be appealed.
In 2013 the Supreme Leader’s office – and thus the Guardian Council – miscalculated. The council disqualified two-term former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, seeing him as a threat to the regime’s crackdown on dissent. As a consolation, it allowed Rafsanjani’s protégé Rouhani to run, thinking he had no hope. But when the three conservative candidates approved by the council split the vote of the bloc, Rouhani won a first-round majority.
In 2021, the Council avoided that error by not only disqualifying prominent centrists and reformists, but also by removing conservatives — such as Larijani and Ahmadinejad — who might take votes from Raisi.
They could pursue the same tactic this time. But the risk is that, by denying any apparent choice to voters, they depress the turnout.
A Woman President?
The advance of applications by four women – notably hardline former MP, Zohreh Elahian – poses a historic question for the Guardian Council. Until now, the Council has disqualified all female applicants on the grounds that candidates must be from among political or religious rijal – which has tradiitonally been interpreted narrowly to mean “men in politics”.
But some constitutional experts and politicians have interpreted rijal to mean “figures” or “persons” irrespective of gender. And Elahian is a fierce supporter of the compulsory hijab – so fierce that she has been sanctioned by Canada for endorsing the death penalty for participants in the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests since September 2022.
Under pressure from those protests, spurred by the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini – detained and beaten for “inappropriate attire” – the regime may decide to allow the “right” type of woman to run.
Zohreh Elahian
How the early election will affect the political dynamic in Iran remains unclear, amid domestic tension and uncertainty about the line of succession for the elderly Supreme Leader.
Jalili will undoubtedly be running, probably as a favoured hardliner. But will both Ghalibaf and Larijani be blocked, or will one — even both — be permitted to stand to ensure the semblance of a contest? Will that facade also include a prominent reformist such as Jahangiri?
And an even bigger question is whether the regime’s chosen tactic work with an Iranian population, most of whom have been ground down by 15 years of political turbulence and repression. The regime must tread a careful line between controlling the election and risking its legitimacy in a vote where few people bother to turn out.
Khatami’s VP, Mohammad Reza Aref, lends his full support for Pezeshkian: https://www.isna.ir/news/1403032013299
Pezeshkian is one of the three nominated candidates of the Reformist Front: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202406088134
The Reformist Front said it would only participate if at least one of its nominated candidates is approved.
[Editor’s Note: Writing up this story now, as Guardian Council disqualifies all but six candidates.]
Guardians Council announces the approved candidates: https://en.mehrnews.com/news/216276/Names-of-Iran-s-presidential-elections-candidates-announced
1. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf (principlist)
2. Saeed Jalili (principlist)
3. Mostafa Pourmohammadi (moderate)
4. Masoud Pezeshkian (reformist)
5. Alireza Zakani (principlist)
6. Amirhossein Ghazizadeh (principlist)
Ali Larijani and Eshaq Jahangitri were not qualified. However, Khamenei could still reinstate them as he did with Moin and Mehralizadeh in 2005.
Back to how raisi died. According to regime, the pilot was well experienced and one often flew for SL. the helicopter was well serviced. There are conflicting reports about how the crashed helicopter was found…we’ll know more soon enough….
Reformist Front will not back a “proxy” candidate this time: https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1403/03/19/3100062
In 2013, reformists decided to back Hassan Rouhani – a moderate – rather than Mohammad Reza Aref – a reformist – because he was seen as more likely to win.
Guardians Council denies there is an upper limit on the number of approved candidates: https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1403/03/19/3099910
Nevertheless, the national broadcaster, IRIB, expects there to less than 10 approved candidates in order to reasonably stage the debates through which the public learns about them and which is crucial to getting a good turnout. The Council has requested more time to evaluate the candidates of whom none have been informed so far that they have been rejected: https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6130193
The final list will be determined by majority voting amongst the 12 members where 7 votes is needed.
There has been one conservative candidate who has withdrawn: https://www.isna.ir/news/1403031911734
47 conservatives, 3 moderates, 12 reformists, 2 populists and 16 independents have registered: https://www.irna.ir/news/85495178
90% of the conservatives are expected not to be qualified to run. 1-2 reformists and 1 moderate are expected to be approved also.
Iran’s Reformist Front announces its candidates: https://www.isna.ir/news/1403031811679
Abbas Akhoundi, Eshagh Jahangiri and Masoud Pezeshkian are those who received a clear majority of the delegates. All three men registered to run in 2021 and were not approved. The Reformist Front has stated it will only participate in the election if at least one of its three nominated candidates is approved by the Guardians Council. Other reformist candidates who registered include Mostafa Kavakebian, Abdolnasser Hemmati and Mahmoud Sadeghi. Two prominent reformist candidates, Mohammad Sadr and Mohammed Reza Aref, did not register owing to criticism of them by their own reformist colleagues as well as being sidelined. Both men would likely have been approved: https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1609157
This is not “election”, it is a circus. Any debate or assessment should keep that in mind. Although, this “election” might offend even clowns
We’ll see on June 28th when the Iranian people vote. The editor has predicted a low turnout. I predict a turnout >50% although unlikely to be >60%..
Unless you can provide facts and numbers with verified sources that how you arrived at >50% we can just conclude you
are putting out kosesher (BS) as is it usual about anything you write.
You should change your nickname to “kosesher goo” it is authentic you, instead of these pretend aliases you use.
[Editor’s Note: Right — the Guardian Council has a photo opportunity for a reporter *from the regime’s State broadcaster* to show “transparency”. Glad that is cleared up.]
Guardians Council shows transparency by allowing IRIB reporter into their official meeting to interview them about the vetting process: https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1403/03/17/3099296
Meanwhile, Mojtaba Zolnour predicts a high turnout in the election and claims that not just veiled women but those with “bad or even no proper hejab” were among those who attended President Raisi’s funeral processions: https://www.isna.ir/news/1403031610540
“We saw that in the escort of the body of the martyred president and other martyrs of service, different strata form society came, and not only one stratum or only religious people and people with hijab, but also came without hijab and bad hijab, and cried behind the body of Martyr Raisi.”
In 2017, when the rules for registration were laxer, 1636 candidates applied to run for president: https://irandataportal.syr.edu/presidential-elections/2017-presidential-election
All but 6 were approved by the Guardians Council, the vast majority lacking the qualifications required. Televised debates require a maximum of 9 candidates if all are to given equal access.
[Editor’s Note: It is a tribute to Orwellian doublespeak to declare that the Guardian Council’s disqualification of 72 of 80 candidates is “to allow for a fair and meaningful election”.]
Meet the 15 possible contenders for the snap presidential elections in Iran: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/499437/Meet-the-15-possible-contenders-for-the-snap-presidential-elections
Th Guardians Council will reduce the list of 80 candidates to about 8 to allow for a fair and meaningful election. Here is who I think will be on that list:
1. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
2. Saeed Jalili.
3. Alireza Zakani
4. Mehdrad Bazrpash
5. Ali Ardashir Larijani.
6. Abdolnasser Hemmati.
7. Jahangiri or Shariatmadari
8. Kavakebian or Pezeshkian
However, the Guardians Council always surprises.
[Editor’s Note: Red herring from the commenter: the Guardian Council have never cited “debates” as a reason for their disqualifications.]
The editor might also want to suggest how all 80 candidates can appear in the televised debates. If not, then it is not a fair election.
[Editor’s Note: An explanation of how the Guardian Council “qualifies” those whom the regime deems fit to stand in a managed election.]
The only time the Guardians Council have allowed more than 10 people to run was in 1980 when 96 of 124 candidates were approved. However, only 8 were put on the ballot and the others were legitimate write-ins. The Guardians Council states it does not disqualify candidates per se but, rather, qualifies them according the requirements laid out in Article 115: adminstrative capacity, trustworthiness, good reputation etc. In order to have a meaningful choice, and to give equal coverage to all, the number of candidates on the ballot has to be reduced to less than 10 – as in every other country. Of course, there may be other ways to reduce the number of registrants, like requiring nominations from lawmakers or gathering signatures, but at least reducing the number of applications from 1636 to 80, using the new registration rules, is a start. However, as we have seen in Russia (and the United States), signatures can be contested and candidates may be prevented from appearing on the ballot as a result.
I am going to revise my prediction:
1. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
2. Saeed Jalili.
3. Alireza Zakani.
4. Mehrdad Bazrpash.
5. Ali Nikzad
6. Ali Ardashir Larijani
7. Jahangiri/Akhoundi/Pezeshkian
8. Hemmati/Kavekebian/Shariatmadari
However, the Guardians Council tends to approve lesser known candidates as well as major figures. There may be pressure to approve a woman.
So I was right about Ghalibaf, Jalili, Zakani and Pezeshkian. Did not see Pourmohammadi and Ghazizadeh coming, but did acknowledge that the Guardians Coubcil approves lesser known candidates. Still expected to see Bazrpash and Larijani but they were rejected.