A 7-point summary of where Iran and the West have made advances in nuclear talks — and where there are still major disagreements
On Wednesday, we noted a shift in Iran’s tone towards the US over nuclear talks, with the Foreign Ministry, MPs, and media lashing out at lead American negotiator Wendy Sherman over a remark she made three weeks ago — before the “very positive” discussions between Iran and the 5+1 Powers in Geneva.
See Iran Analysis: Trouble Ahead? Tehran Lashes Out at US Nuclear Negotiator Sherman
One immediate reason might be Tehran’s concern over US reassurance of Israel, with John Kerry visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to say, “No deal is better than a bad deal.”
Despite the ascendancy of the Rouhani Government with its approach of “engagement”, Iran’s domestic environment still offers plenty of opportunity to challenge the talks, such as the centrepiece of celebrations on November 4 marking the 1979 takeover of the US Embassy.
The fundamental reason for Tehran’s tone, however, lies in its perception of whether or not the US is seriously considering the proposals Iran made at Geneva.
And on Tuesday, unnamed diplomats signalled that — despite the positive tone from Geneva — Washington still believes Iran has not gone far enough with concessions on uranium enrichment.
The diplomats used a long-time channel for their messages, George Jahn of the Associated Press, who summarised: “Significant gaps remain between what the Iranians offered and what the six negotiating powers seek in order to reduce fears Iran wants to build nuclear weapons.”
Matching the leak to Jahn with last week’s message from an Iranian official to Barbara Slavin of Al-Slavin — and assuming both disclosures have truth amid the propaganda — where have Iran and the West found some common ground? And where are those gaps that appear to be unsettling Tehran?
1. ADVANCE: IRAN SUSPENDS ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM TO 20%
The list of the Western diplomats starts positively: Iran offered at Geneva to stop enriching uranium to 20%, as the US has demanded.
Indeed, the diplomats offered a telling revelation — contrary to the image that Tehran had stalled in talks earlier this year, they offered the suspension of the 20% enrichment at discussions in Kazakhstan in April.
2. GAP: THE STATUS OF THE FORDOO ENRICHMENT PLANT
The Iranian official said last week that Tehran would halt 20% enrichment at the Fordoo plant, constructed in a mountainside near Qom, and turn the facility into a research centre.
The Western officials said suspension of operations at Fordoo is not enough: the plant must effectively be shut, “disabled to the point where [enrichment] would be difficult to restart”. They say Iran “offered only to discuss the status” of the facility.
3. GAP: SHIPMENT OF 20% URANIUM OUTSIDE IRAN
The Iranian official said that Tehran is offering to convert all its existing stock of 20% uranium into fuel plates, which cannot be used for military purposes.
The US officials deny that the Islamic Republic made such an offer.
4. ADVANCE: RECOGNITION OF IRAN’S RIGHT TO ENRICH
One of Tehran’s fundamental demands is that its right to enrich is recognised.
The Western diplomats do not directly address this. However, recognition is implicit in their statement of “negotiations on the number and type of machines [Iran] has installed and is operating” for enrichment of uranium up to 5%.
The Western diplomats say Iran is willing to discussing the numbers of centrifuges permitted to operate.
5. GAP: INSPECTION AND SUPERVISION OF 5% URANIUM
Iran has said it is ready to discuss supervision of its stock of lower-enriched uranium. Indeed, it points to existing arrangements with the International Atomic Energy Agency — with further discussions with the IAEA on October 28 — to say inspections occur on a regular basis.
The Western diplomats say Iran “did not substantially address demands” over supervision at Geneva.
6. ADVANCE: THE STATUS OF THE ARAK HEAVY-WATER REACTOR
Both the Iranian and Western diplomats say Tehran has agreed to discussed concerns over the construction of a heavy-water reactor at Arak, scheduled to go on-line in late 2014.
The West is concerned that plutonium, a natural by-product of the reactor’s operation, could be used in a nuclear weapons program.
7. GAP: SANCTIONS
Iran is insisting on the lifting of sanctions — not just token measures, such as the removal of a ban on aircraft parts, but removal of crippling restrictions on energy, finance, and transportation — as part of any deal.
The Western diplomats do not refer at all to sanctions in their leak to Jahn.
