Reform UK leader Nigel Farage at party headquarters in Millbank, central London, July 2026 (Gareth Fuller/AP)
UK Politics: Have We Passed The Peak of Nigel Farage and the Reform Party?
Nigel Farage looked rattled last week as he faced rows of empty seats at the UK Reform Party’s pre-Budget event in Westminster. He blamed “staff incompetence” and suggested businesspeople were too busy to attend on a Monday.
Perhaps they were, but the pictures were uncomfortable for Farage, whose brand depends on momentum and an aura of certainty. The man who wants to lead Britain was explaining why his party had struggled to fill a room.
The more consequential question is whether, in the emptiness, Farage can withstand accountability, having spent years demanding answers from everyone else. As scrutiny turns towards his finances and the people around him, he must explain himself. If voters still expect politicians to account for their conduct, even those who promise to overthrow the establishment, there is reason for hope.
A YouGov poll conducted on October 25-26 put Reform UK on 20%, behind Labour on 27% and the Conservatives on 22%. That is Reform’s lowest figure since YouGov restarted its tracker in January 2025, sinking from readings as high as 28% in May.
One poll cannot tell us why support has fallen, and an empty hall does not make Farage a busted flush. Reform retains significant support and the ability to dominate the conversation. But its vulnerability deserves the attention that its apparent invincibility once commanded.
Farage Under Fire
I have long been interested in Farage’s position of strength: how he acquired such influence and why his opponents have struggled to get the better of him. Now the prevailing question is about his limits and what has exposed them.
By June, I was questioning whether Farage and Reform had passed their peak. The spectacle of winning had projected his authority, but the scrutiny of his finances and leadership weakened the display. The latest difficulties bring that weakness into sharper focus.
The UK’s Parliamentary Standards Commissioner has been examining whether Farage should have registered a £5 million gift from cryptocurrency magnate Christopher Harborne. Farage says the gift was not political and insists he has done nothing wrong, but the investigation is unresolved.
Separately, a Channel 4 undercover investigation raised questions about prospective foreign donations and the funding of polling. Reform’s internal inquiry found no breach of electoral law, while criticising the conduct of people speaking for the party and recommending changes to its procedures. A proposed £500,000 donation never materialized. Reform denies wrongdoing, and the police inquiry is ongoing.
Farage’s political claim is that he represents ordinary people against an establishment that looks after itself. Now his financial relationships turns his questions back on him: Whose interests are being served? What access does money provide? Why should voters trust him to change a political culture from which he is benefiting with wealth and position?
Until this past spring, permanent insurgency had offered influence without the daily responsibility of government. Now Farage’s ambitions face a scrutiny that may make his bid for the Prime Minister’s office less attractive. Financial relationships, candidate selection, and promises for government have become matters that require detailed answers. He cannot assume dismissal of every question as an establishment ambush.
Lessons In Europe
Elsewhere in Europe, opponents of the hard right have shown how demands for accountability can become an electoral challenge. In Hungary, Péter Magyar and the Tisza party defeated the 12-year rule of Viktor Orbán by campaigning on corruption, economic stagnation, and the everyday experience of a system serving insiders. They
built a credible alternative around the consequences for ordinary Hungarians of Orbán’s Premiership.
In Serbia, the student-backed electoral list defeated Aleksandar Vučić’s alliance on 25 October. The movement grew from protests after the Novi Sad railway station canopy collapse, which killed 16 people, into demands for accountability over alleged corruption. Sustained organization helped turn those demands into victory at the polls.
Beyond Europe, Brazil offers a reminder of how close these contests remain. Incumbent President Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro in the run-off, but the latter still won 48.21% of valid votes and was widely expected to triumph.
Who Can Be Trusted to Represent Us?
Reform UK also faces the demand for accountability from those whom the party has put into public office. ITV’s Undercover: A Year in Reform recorded councillors and candidates using racist, misogynistic, and violent language such as a Solihull councillor’s description of Asian families as “parasites”.
Reform says it does not tolerate racism and has begun internal investigations, but in true Trumpian spirit, they doubled down. The party has reported ITV to the police; ITV stands by its journalism. Asian and Muslim families have concerns whether someone who regards their community with contempt can represent them fairly. The footage deserves scrutiny, as do the party’s vetting and its response.
There is an uncomfortable possibility here: some voters who are willing to tolerate racist rhetoric may prove less forgiving of perceived corruption or personal enrichment. They may excuse prejudice yet recoil at the suspicion that the supposed champion of ordinary people is looking after himself. It is a bleak possibility, but “fairness” can reach people who have stopped listening to arguments for tolerance and decency in other areas.
That makes careful documentation of Reform’s affairs essential. Follow the money without turning allegations into verdicts. Examine Reform’s councils: what was promised, what happened to services, and how were budgets spent?
Farage’s opponents also need to give credible answers. People worried about immigration, housing, or public services deserve to know how migration will be managed, homes built, and services funded. Borrowing Farage’s language while failing to solve those problems only reinforces his argument.
These answers need to reach people through local reporting, short videos and trusted community voices. Organization means sustained conversations beyond the people already persuaded, followed by evidence that promises can be kept. Fairness means rules applying to politicians and their donors as they apply to everyone else. Reliability means explanations of what can be delivered and paid for, reporting honestly on the results.
The empty chairs in Westminster prove little on their own; the questions Farage must answer matter far more. Hope begins with the possibility that voters still expect accountability. Hope becomes politically useful when others earn their trust and organize to offer a better choice.
