Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Vladimir Putin at the 22nd Russia-Kazakhstan Forum of Interregional Cooperation, Omsk, Russia, July 25, 2026


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I joined Times Radio’s Frontline on Thursday for a 32-minute deep dive into the latest developments around Russia’s 53-month full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including the increasing isolation of Vladimir Putin.

Host Louis Sykes and I begin with the consequences of a Russian cruise missile falling in eastern Poland on Thursday. I explain why, for now, I do not see this leading to an escalation of conflict beyond Ukraine — but how this will bolster Kyiv’s quest for support of its air defenses.

The centerpiece of our discussion is a dramatic sign of international trouble for Putin. Standing alongside the Russian leader at a bilateral forum in Omsk, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said he was unclear about the reasons for the ongoing invasion. He suggested a return to negotiations with a freezing of the frontlines — effectively the Kremlin’s long-standing rejection.

I explain how it is likely that Tokayev was not just acting on his own but was carrying a message from China.

We discuss further problems for Putin, including a US shift towards joint military production with Ukraine and the economic problems from Ukraine’s mounting counter-attacks.