Q&A: Why Israel Attacks Lebanon Despite US-Iran Ceasefire

EA on International Outlets: A Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire

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I joined PoliticsJOE on Thursday to explain how the US-Israel War on Iran could be a “hinge point in history”, with a realignment of the region and the world.

I begin the 37-minute discussion with an assessment of the current situation, including the temporary ceasefire and the prospect of US-Iran talks.

I explain how the Trump camp has miscalculated. With no Plan B for “regime surrender” and deciding not to launch a ground invasion, Donald Trump stumbled by accepting Iran’s terms as the basis for discussions. That forced the White House into a confusing retreat on Wednesday, as Tehran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz.

Then I look wider at how the survival of the Iranian regime; the economic shocks of the war; and Gulf States’ anger at the US will all contribute to a “turning of the kaleidoscope”, realigning relations across the Middle East and beyond.

You link the Middle East with Europe, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and with the world amid the response to Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The kaleidoscope does not turn only in the Middle East. We have the prospect that countries will no longer have a US alliance at the center because that’s not what the Trumpists want.

People will talk about hinge points in history. Folks, you’re living through one right now.