Supporters of Iran’s regime gather after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the US-Israel War, Tehran, April 8, 2026 (Majid Asgaripour/WANA)


Q&A: Why Israel Attacks Lebanon Despite US-Iran Ceasefire

Ceasefire? Israel Kills 254 in Lebanon as US and Iran Trade Verbal Punches


UPDATE 1355 GMT:

I joined Pakistan TV on Friday afternoon to anticipate developments in the US-Iran talks.

I explain why Donald Trump flipped from threats to end Iranian civilization to embrace of discussion, primarily because of Tehran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and I evaluate the gaps between the Trump and Iranian positions.

The other guest is analyst Michael Kugelman.

Watch from 25:11:


UPDATE, APRIL 11:

I joined a panel on India’s News 9 to preview today’s US-Iran talks in Islamabad.

The other guests are Ambassador Meera Shankar and Professor Swaran Singh.

I evaluate, “Can Israel’s attacks on Lebanon derail this process?”, and whether Israel will listen to anyone trying to curb its assault.

You have an Iranian regime which is refusing to surrender. You have a Trump camp which has handed them the diplomatic initiative.

And then you have the Israelis trying to upend the process.

I also consider the effect inside Iran, with the regime able to maintain its crackdown on those seeking political and social rights.

Watch from 6:24:


UPDATE 1648 GMT:

I chatted with Politics Uncensored’s Ali Milani about the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, upcoming talks in Pakistan, and Israel’s ongoing assault and quest for occupation in Lebanon.

The 12-minute discussion starts with the question, “Did Donald Trump lose this war?”

Listen from 36:18:


UPDATE 1441 GMT:

I joined Poland’s TVP World on Thursday morning to examine the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire, amid Israel’s expanding attacks on Lebanon.

I talk about the confusion in the Trump camp as the White House tries to walk back Donald Trump’s acceptance of negotiations based on Iranian terms.

I look at long-term effects on oil and gas supplies and markets.

And I go beyond Iran and the Middle East to examine the damage to Russia’s invasion from Ukraine’s counter-attacks against oil terminals and ports.

Can that Ukrainian and European security be defended against another threat — the camp of Vice President J.D. Vance, supporting hard-right politicians like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán to undermine Europe?


ORIGINAL ENTRY: Hours after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the US-Israel War on Iran, I appeared on international outlets to analyze why the Trump camp backed away from its threat that “the Iranian civilization will die tonight”.

But I also consider the shakiness of the halt, as Israel continues its assault on Lebanon and the White House and Iran quarrel over the terms for negotiations.

Watch France 24

I explain Trump’s retreat and the Administration not daring to put in ground troops. I make clear that he agreed to negotiate on the basis of Iran’s 10 points.

However, given that the Trump camp is unlikely to accept those terms, I evaluate the prospects for any talks.

If the Trumpists show up in Pakistan, will they negotiate? Or will they try to reclaim their advantage by demanding an end to Iran’s civilian nuclear program and limits on ballistic missiles, returning us to the position of late February?

I decline to predict, “How long will this go on?”

We have to lay out the key points about the damage and instability that has been caused and ask, “Can this be limited in the long term?”

Listen to RTE Radio 1

I joined host David McCullagh on Wednesday morning to establish how the Trump camp switch from all-out assault to ceasefire and to consider if this a long-term halt to attacks.

I also explain why Iranians who want political and social change have been set back by the US-Israel War.

The other analysts are BBC correspondent Orla Guerin and geopolitical strategist Aidan Meagher.