Donald Trump speaks with the press, March 23, 2026 (Sky)

EA-US Politics Podcast: Mr Trump Goes to War

EA-Times Radio Special: Trump Camp Wobbles Over US-Israel War on Iran

UPDATES: US-Israel War on Iran, Day 24 — “More Serious Than Oil Shock of 1970s”

UPDATE 0937 GMT:

Traders made bets worth $580 million in the oil market around 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post about “productive conversations” with Iran.

About 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands between 6:49 a.m. and 6.50 a.m. New York time on Monday. Trading volumes for Brent and WTI leapt at the same time, 27 seconds before 6:50 a.m. Futures tracking the S&P 500 share index jumped in price moments later.

The trades echoed a flurry of large, highly-profitable bets made on prediction market Polymarket over the timing of US attacks in recent months on Iran and Venezuela.

“It’s hard to prove causality…but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive at selling futures at that point, 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” said a market strategist at a US broker.

Several hedge funds said this is just one example in recent months of large trades made ahead of official Trump Administration announcements.

One trader at a major hedge fund said energy consultants recently noticed several large block trades that they were unusually timed. Another portfolio manager said a series of large and well-timed trades had created a “level of frustration” among investors.

My gut from watching markets for the last 25 years is this is really abnormal. It’s Monday morning, there’s no important data today….

It’s an unusually large trade for a day with no event risk….

Somebody just got a lot richer.

UPDATE 0740 GMT:

The toll from this morning’s US strike (see 0721 GMT) on the Iraqi coalition Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Units) has risen to at least 15 killed and 30 wounded.

Among those slain is the commander, Saad al-Baiji, and 14 others. It accused the US of being behind the attack, saying an American airstrike targeted a command headquarters while personnel were on duty.

The PMF is an umbrella group of mostly Shi’ite paramilitary factions that was formally integrated into Iraq’s state security forces and includes several groups aligned with Iran. Iran-backed armed groups have launched attacks on US bases in Iraq since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran in late February.

UPDATE 0734 GMT:

At least two people have been killed southeast of Beirut as Israel bombs the southern suburbs of Lebanon’s capital.

The victims were in the Druze-majority town of Bshamoun. Five others were injured.

The Israeli military renewed evacuation warnings for neighborhoods in southern Beirut. Large plumes of smoke rose over the area.

UPDATE 0721 GMT:

Seven fighters from the Iran-backed Iraqi coalition Hashed al-Shaabi have been killed in a US strike, says one of their officials.

Hashed al-Shaabi (the Popular Mobilization Forces) are now part of Iraq’s armed forces.

The official said the strike, in Anbar Province in western Iraq, was carried out during a commanders’ meeting. Some people are still trapped under rubble.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Donald Trump has retreated in the US-Israel War on Iran with an unsupported “declaration” of talks with Tehran.

On Sunday, Trump proclaimed that the US would “hit and obliterate [Iran’s] various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”, if Tehran did not allow unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

But Iran’s Revolutionary Guards pushed back that “all energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure” of the US and its allies would be targeted.

Global oil and gas prices spiked, and Asian stock markets slumped between 2.5% and 6.5% on Monday. So Trump pulled back on his threat. In a post on Truth Social, he extended his “deadline” by five days as he declared “very good and productive conversations” with Iran on an end to the war.

Speaking with reporters, he proclaimed “major points of agreement”, framing it as regime’s surrender to his demands: “15 points” were covered and and Iran giving up its nuclear program entirely were “points 1, 2, and 3”.

He said he expected a deal “very soon”. His son-in-law Jared Kushner and his friend, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, were talking to a “respected” Iranian who is not the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamanei.

“I didn’t call, they called – and they wanted to make a deal,” he maintained.

Asked about the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz, Trump said it will be open “immediately” if a deal is reached. He responded to a further question about who would control it, he said, “Maybe [me and the ayatollah — whoever the ayatollah is.”

Iran’s Denial Mocks Trump

The Iranian regime quickly rejected Trump’s claims, mocking the reality TV star.

The Fars News Agency, linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, denied any direct or indirect communications with the US. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no negotiations had taken place.

The outlets pushed back with declarations of a Trump retreat after the Guards’ threat to target all power plants in the region. The Foreign Ministry said his statements were “part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans”.

Iranian State TV posted a graphic, “US President backs down following Iran’s firm warning.”

So What Are These “Talks”?

Trump’s retreat, prompted by his concerns over the oil price and stock markets, appears to be an exaggeration of discreet contacts between his envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Abbas Araqchi.

Officials told the media last week that texts had been passed between the two men. No details were given, and it is unclear who initiated the communication.

An Iranian official said that on Saturday the Trump camp requested a meeting with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

They did not indicate that Ghalibaf had accepted. Instead, the Speaker posted on social media:

Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors. All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved.

No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.

A Trump Administration official maintained that Ghalibaf is “a hot option”: “He’s one of the highest….But we got to test them, and we can’t rush into it.”

They compared it to the Administration’s “regime accommodation” in Venezuela in January, abducting President Nicolás Maduro but leaving the rest of the leadership in place.

It’s all about installing someone like a Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela that we say, “We’re going to keep you there. We’re going to not take you out. You’re going to work with us. You’re going to give us a good deal, a first deal on the oil.”

A Gulf official “in touch with the White House” put any US initiative in the context of Trump’s concerns and the lack of a Plan B after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader and dozens of senior officials and commanders.

He’s definitely buying time and trying to stabilize markets. What’s harder to know is if he’s serious about finding an off-ramp or if he’s putting unrealistic demands out there so that Iran will say no.

Meanwhile, Turkey reportedly was organizing an attempt at mediation. The effort included Egypt, Pakistan, and the Gulf States. After a weekend tour of the Gulf, Turkish Foreign Minister met their ambassadors, as well as Jordan’s, in Ankara on Monday.

A Pakistani official and a second source said direct talks on ending the war could be held in Islamabad this week, following a call between Trump and the head of Pakistan’s military, Gen. Asim Munir. US Vice President J.D. Vance will join Witkoff and Kushner in the encounter with Iranian officials.

The White House confirmed Trump’s call with Munir, but it would not comment on an Islamabad meeting.