Oil facilities burn in Tehran, Iran amid Israel airstrikes, March 2026

EA-US Politics Podcast: Mr Trump Goes to War

EA-Times Radio Special: Trump Camp Wobbles Over US-Israel War on Iran

UPDATES: US-Israel War on Iran, Day 21 — Israelis Attack World’s Largest Gasfield

UPDATE 1644 GMT:

The New York Times reports that Israel based war on Iran on the hope that it would spur an uprising.

The head of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, presented the plan to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. David Barnea said that, in the first days of the war, the Mossad would likely galvanize the Iranian opposition. Barnea set out the proposal to senior Trump Administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.

The Times bases its account on interviews with more than a dozen current and former American, Israeli and other foreign officials.

Netanyahu invoked Mossad’s optimism to convince Trump that the collapse of the Iranian regime was a realistic goal.

In his statement announcing the war, Trump told Iranians, “Take over your government: It will be yours to take.”

Three weeks later, the Administration has abandoned that message in public statements. However, Netanyahu said last Thursday:

You can’t do revolutions from the air. There has to be a ground component as well….

It is too early to tell if the Iranian people will exploit the conditions we are creating for them to take to the streets. I hope that will be the case. We are working toward that end, but ultimately, it will depend only on them.

Behind the scenes, Netanyahu has expressed frustration that the uprising has not occurred.

UPDATE 1628 GMT:

An “Israeli security establishment source” has downplayed Donald Trump’s latest shift of position, declaring US-Iran talks:

I’d approach this cautiously, with a grain of salt. It’s early Monday morning in the US, the start of the trading week….

For now, it appears he has bought a few more days roughly into week four, until the Marines arrive and complete their initial deployment and organization phase.

The Iranians are already denying it [talks with the US].

UPDATE 1613 GMT:

An Iranian official tells Reuters that on Saturday the Trump camp requested a meeting with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Tehran has not yet responded. Ghalibaf posted on social media this afternoon:

Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors. All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved.

No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.

UPDATE 1601 GMT:

The Human Rights Activists News Agency says 1,407 civilians have been killed, including 214 children, by US and Israeli attacks on Iran.

The Iranian Red Crescent chief says more than 81,000 civilian units have been damaged, including 275 medical facilities and 498 schools.

UPDATE 1554 GMT:

Just before Donald Trump’s retreat, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards trolled him in a video on social media: “Hey, Trump, you are fired! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

UPDATE 1444 GMT:

In comments to reporters, Donald Trump had reiterated his claim that the US and Iran are in discussions about ending the war with “major points of agreement”.

He asserted that conversations took place on Sunday, saying they involve 15 points and Iran giving up its nuclear program entirely are “points 1, 2, and 3”.

Trump proclaimed his expectation of a deal “very soon”, with his son-in-law Jared Kushner and real estate developer Steve Witkoff involved in the talks. He asserted they are talking to a “respected” Iranian who is not the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamanei.

“I didn’t call, they called – and they wanted to make a deal,” he maintained.

Asked about the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz, Trump said it will be open “immediately” if a deal is reached. He responded to a further question about who would control it, he said, “Maybe [me and the ayatollah — whoever the ayatollah is.”

Trump scrambled to justifying his lifting of sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil, bringing around $14 billion to Tehran.

I just want to have as much oil in the system as possible, and we don’t even know if Iran gets that money frankly.

You have ships that are out there loaded up with oil. Rather than keep them there, I would rather see [the oil] go to the system.

Any small amount of money that Iran gets is not going to have any difference in this war, but I want to have the system be lubricated.

“The price of oil will drop like a rock as soon as a deal is done,” he maintained, noting that prices have dropped since he retreated over his deadline to “obliterate” Iranian infrastructure.

UPDATE 1436 GMT:

European and US stock markets rebounded after Trump’s apparent retreat to “obliterate” Iranian infrastructure.

Asian markets slumped between 2.5% and 6.5% because of Trump’s weekend bluster, but after his assertion of US-Iran talks, the UK market recovered the 2.5% it had lost this morning.

In the US, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are each up around 2%. The S&P 500 had sagged to its lowest level since September before the turnaround.

The price of West Texas Intermediate oil dropped almost 10% to $88.72, its lowest level in more than a week.

UPDATE 1400 GMT:

Donald Trump appears to have retreated on his threats against Iran, saying he has extended his “deadline” to “hit and obliterate” Iranian power stations and energy infrastructure” by five days.

Trump blustered over the weekend that he would authorize the strikes if Iran did not allow freedom of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

But Trump posted on Monday that his camp and Iran have held “very good and productive conversations” on an end to the US-Israel War.

The Fars News Agency, linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, denied any direct or indirect communications with the US. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no negotiations had taken place.

Fars declared, citing an unidentified source, that Trump retreated after hearing that Iran would target all power plants in the region. The Foreign Ministry said Trump’s statements “are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans”.

Iranian State TV posted a graphic, “US President backs down following Iran’s firm warning.”

Earlier in the war, the Trump camp rejected Qatar’s effort at mediation. Oman, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have all been reported to have pursued an end to the conflict in recent day. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on Monday that the emirate is working for an agreement to secure safe passage through the Strait.

Albusaidi posted after Trump’s latest shift:

The Iranian Foreign Ministry asserted, “Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington.”

UPDATE 0822 GMT:

A 60-year-old Israeli man, initially said to be killed by Hezbollah rocket fire on Sunday, was actually slain by Israel’s artillery shelling.

The Israel Defense Forces first said that a vehicle was struck in the northern border community of Misgav Am.

But the IDF has now informed the family of Ofer Moskovitz, an avocado farmer and a kibbutz spokesman, that it mistakenly targeted the kibbutz instead of area in southern Lebanon.

UPDATE 0656 GMT:

Amid Donald Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, Asia-Pacific stock markets are falling.

Japan’s Nikkei is down 3.4%; China’s CSI 300 has lost 2.8%; and South Korea’s KOSPI index contracted by 6.5%.

UPDATE, MARCH 23:

The head of the International Energy Agency says the US-Israel War on Iran is a greater crisis than the oil shocks of the 1970s and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine from 2022.

Fatih Birol notd that “at least 40…energy assets in the region are severely or very severely damaged across nine countries”.

He said of the oil embargos in 1973 and 1979:

At that time, in each [oil] crisis, the world has lost about 5 million barrels per day, both of them together 10 million barrels per day. And after that we all know that there were major economic problems around the world. And today we lost 11 million barrels – so more than two major oil shocks put together.

Birol added that 140 billion consumer meters of gas has been lost since the US-Israel war began on February 28, compared to a market loss of 75 BCM after the Russian invasion.

This is “two oil crises and one gas crash put all together”, he summarized. There are lasting impacts on “vital arteries of the global economy”, including petrochemicals and fertilizers.

The IEA has issued a list of recommendations, including encouragement of more people to work from home, reduction of speed limits on roads, and limits on air travel to save fuel. Birol said some countries, including in the Asia-Pacific region, have adopted the steps which are “based on our years of experience”.

Birol said the IEA is consulting with governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more stockpiled oil: “If it is necessary, of course, we will do it.”

IEA member nations agreed on 11 March to release a record 400 million barrels of oil, 20% of the overall stocks in strategic stockpiles.

Birol cautioned, “A stock release will help to comfort the markets, but this is not the solution. It will only help to reduce the pain in the economy.”

UPDATE 1549 GMT:

Since March 2, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed 1,029 people and wounded 2,786, reports the Lebanese Health Ministry.

UPDATE 1258 GMT:

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz says the military has been ordered to accelerate the demolition of Lebanese homes close to the border.

The destruction is “in line with the model applied in Gaza’s Rafah and Beit Hanoun”, flattened by Israeli attacks.

The military has also been commanded to destroy bridges over the Litani River, 30 km (199 miles) from the border, ostensibly to prevent Hezbollah moving south with weapons. Earlier this week, Israeli airstrikes destroyed two bridges over the river.

UPDATE 1031 GMT:

A US-operated Patriot air defense missile, rather than an Iranian drone, is probably responsible for an explosion on March 9 that injured 32 civilians and damged homes in Bahrain, conclude academic researchers.

Both Bahrain and the US blamed the Iranian drone attack for the blast. On the day of the attack, US Central Command tweeted that the UAV struck a residential neighborhood on Sitra Island, site of an oil refinery.

Research associates Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman and Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey concluded, with moderate tohigh confidence that the suspect missile was likely launched from U.S Patriot battery around 4 milese southwest of the Mahazza neighborhood.

Questioned by Reuters, Bahraini authorities on Saturday acknowledged the involvement of the Patriot system for the first time. However, a government spokesperson insisted that the missile successfully intercepted the UAV, saving lives: “The damage and injuries sustained were not a result of a direct impact to the ground of either the Patriot interceptor or the Iranian drone.”

UPDATE 0652 GMT:

Israeli emergency services says one person was killed in rocket fire on the community of Misgav Am near the border with Lebanon.

Hezbollah claimed the strike, saying it was targeting a group of Israeli soldiers.

Two vehicles caught fire, and a body was pulled from one. “The man who was trapped inside the vehicle in Misgav Am has been confirmed dead,” said Mage Eli Bin, director of the Magen David Adom ambulance service.

The Israel Defense Forces posted, “There is damage, and there are casualties. The incident is under investigation.”

UPDATE 0600 GMT:

Donald Trump ranted on Truth Social on Saturday night:

If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!

The Iranian military responded:

Following previous warnings, if Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is violated by the enemy, all energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted.

UPDATE, MAR 22:

Iranian ballistic missiles struck Dimona, near the Israeli nuclear weapons center, and Arad in southern Israel on Saturday. At least 150 people were wounded, 11 seriously.

At least two missiles made it through air defenses. Among the seriously injured are a 12-year-old boy and a 5-year-old girl. At least 38 people are still hospitalized.

One missile, reportedly carrying a conventional warhead weighing several hundred kilograms,struck between residential buildings. Video posted online showed the missile impact occurring seconds after warning sirens were activated. The Israeli Air Force has opened an investigation into the failure to intercept the missile that struck Arad.

The Israeli air force and Home Front Command are also examining an earlier strike in Dimona, a city in the Negev desert which is the home of the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center.

Iranian State media said the strikes on Dimona were carried out in response to attacks by the US and Israel on nuclear facilities in Bushehr and Natanz.

Iranian officials said the attack on the Natanz uranium enrichment facility had not caused any radioactive leakage, and residents were not at risk. Israel denied involvement, saying the operation was exclusively American.

UPDATE 1351 GMT:

More than 20 countries say they will contribute to efforts ensuring safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, but without committing to involvement in US military operations.

The 22 countries include the UK, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, the UAE, and Bahrain:

We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.

We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.

UPDATE 1324 GMT:

Israel has denied involvement in strikes on Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility, saying they were carried out by the US.

UPDATE 1122 GMT:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has called for “restraint” after Israel and the US targeted the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran.

Iranian officials said the attack early Saturday had not caused any radioactive leakage, and residents were not at risk.

UPDATE 0933 GMT:

Iran or its allies launched three drones on the headquarters of Iraq’s intelligence service, killing an Iraqi officer.

The service condemned “a terrorist attack carried out by rogue elements”.

General Saad Maan, head of Iraq’s government security media unit, said the strike was at 10 a.m. in the Mansour district of Baghdad. An Iraqi security official said a “telecommunications building” was targeted.

At least three drones were fired overnight on a US diplomatic and logistics hub that houses American military personnel at Baghdad International Airport.

UPDATE 0742 GMT:

Lebanese healthcare workers and officials say Israel is deliberately targeting medical workers and facilities in south Lebanon to make life in the area impossible.

Since March 2, Israel has struck at least 128 medical facilities and ambulances across south Lebanon, killing 40 healthcare workers and wounding 107, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.

Most of the strikes were carried out as medical personnel were sitting in ambulances or at first aid centers. Israel has also carried out at least five “double tap” strikes, hitting medics and emergency workers as they respond to an initial attack.

The Guardian confirmed the attacks through interviews with nine medical workers, including eyewitnesses of Israeli strikes on three separate medical facilities; visits to three destroyed medical centers; and inspection of two damaged ambulances. None of the sites showed evidence of military use.

Last week the Israeli military accused Hezbollah of using ambulances for military purposes, but provided no evidence for the claim. The Lebanese Health Ministry responded that the Israelis are attempting to provide justification for war crimes.

Abdullah Nour el-Din, the head of Islamic Health Association emergency response in southern Lebanon, said in front of a dozen destroyed ambulances:

The Israeli enemy is trying as much as possible to prevent life in our region and push people to flee. Our role is to help people, to stand by them and to provide services so they can remain on their land.

UPDATE 0732 GMT:

Israel has expanded the war into southern Syria.

The Israelis fired on Syrian Army camps, claiming that it was responding to assaults against the Druze community in Suwayda Province and pledging that it “will continue to act for their protection”.

Since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 and the ascent of the Sharaa Government, Israel has carried out strikes and used ground forces to expand its zone of occupation in southern Syria. It has used clashes between Druze factions, Bedouin groups, and Government forces as a pretext.

See also How Israel Tries to Undermine Syria’s Government

The Saudi Foreign Ministry condmened the “blatant Israeli aggression…in flagrant violation of international law and Syrian sovereignty”. It joined Turkey in a call on the international community to intervene.

Turkey’s Foreign Ministry called the Israeli attacks “a dangerous escalation”.

UPDATE 0729 GMT:

Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the US-UK base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

Multiple US officials said one of the missiles failed in flight, and a US warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other.

The officials did not say when the incidents occurred.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The Trump Administration is putting out contradictory signals as it struggles for “regime surrender” in the US-Israel War on Iran.

With Tehran still controlling the Strait of Hormuz and carrying out retaliatory strikes, three American officials said the US military is deploying thousands of additional marines and sailors.

One official said the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer and the Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard are leaving the US about three weeks ahead of schedule. He did not give an indication of the mission.

“Four sources with knowledge of the issue” said that — despite his declaration yesterday, “I’m not putting troops anywhere” — Donald Trump is considering the use of troops to seize or blockade Kharg Island in the northern Persian Gulf, which handles more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

A “senior Administration official” said:

He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen. But that decision hasn’t been made.

But Trump waved late Friday even as he blustered on Truth Social, “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran.”

Earlier Friday, Trump insisted to reporters, “I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.”

In another sign of the Adminstration’s wavering amid the surge in global oil prices, it lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian exports. The US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, declared the move was “very temporary”.

However, the step appeared to confirm Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 25% of the world’s maritime oil supply and 20% of maritime gas pass.

Treasury Secetary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that the Administration was “fine” with Iranian, Chinese, and Indian ships moving through the waterway.

Iran has given permission for several Turkish, Indian, and Pakistani tankers. On Friday, Lloyd’s List said another vessel had paid Tehran $2 million for passage, without indicating under which nation’s flag it is sailing.

Just after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visited Trump in the White House, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran is willing to help Tokyo’s ships through the Strait.

Around 70% of Japan’s oil uses the route.

Trump Lashes Out at Former Allies

As the Administration signalled its inability for now to open the Strait, Trump lashed out at former allies. He ranted on social media:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!

He said of Australia, without specifying the nature of the US request they had declined: “I was very surprised. Well, they should get involved, and I was a little bit surprised that they said no, because we always say yes to them.”

European countries have indicated that they will pursue a mission to maintain passage through the Strait but only after “de-escalation” of the war.

Trump railed earlier this week, “We no longer ‘need’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance – WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea.”

A White House official muddled all the Administration’s different signals into a single statement:

As President Trump said, he has no plans to send troops anywhere – but he wisely does not broadcast his military strategy to the media, and he retains all options as commander-in-chief. The United States military can take out Kharg Island at any time.