Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses Parliament, Kyiv, October 16, 2024

Wednesday’s Coverage: Evacuation of Civilians From Kupyansk Because of Russian Shelling

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Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1726 GMT:

The US Treasury has sanctioned two Chinese entities, a Russian company, and a Russian national involved in the production of Russian Garpiya drones used to attack Ukraine.

In September, documents established that Russia has secretly established a development and production program in China to create the attack drones.

The two Chinese companies, Limbach and Redlepus, have worked with IEMZ Kupol, a subsidiary of the Kremlin-owned weapons company Almaz-Antey, to create the UAVs.

The sanctioned Russian national, Artem Yamshchikov, is the owner of TSK Vektor, which helps with procurement for the entities.

Treasury official Bradley Smith said:

Russia increasingly relies on the expertise of foreign professionals and the import of sophisticated technologies to sustain its weapons program and advance its military campaign against Ukraine.

We will continue to disrupt the networks that enable Russia’s acquisition and use of these advanced weapons.

UPDATE 1126 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has told the European Council that the Victory Plan includes placement of conventional missile capabilities.

“We propose placing on Ukrainian land a deterrence package that would either force Russia to participate in real negotiations or could allow the destruction of its military targets,” Zelensky said. “It’s the peace-through-strength approach.”

The President said the missile package has the support of the US, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy. He did not specify which missile systems are involved.

Zelenskiy said sustained support from European partners is necessary “because Putin is preparing his reinforcements to continue the war” and “wants to match [European] ammunition production by next year”.

He noted Chinese and Iranian support for Moscow and said, “We are receiving signals that China is actively helping Russia drag out this war.”

UPDATE 0814 GMT:

Ukraine air defenses downed 22 of 56 Iran-type attack drones launched by Russia overnight, and another 27 were “lost” because of electronic warfare.

Two more UAVs left Ukrainian airspace towards Belarus.

The Ukrainian military acknowledged five strikes on infrastructure facilities in frontline areas but gave no details of damage.

Air raid alarms were sounded four times in Kyiv, lasting for a total of three and a half hours.

UPDATE 0717 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will present the Victory Plan to the European Union today.

Zelenskiy will also meet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte as Defense Minister Rustem Umerov attends the meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council.

Zelenskiy spoke with US President Joe Biden on Wednesday. The Ukraine leader did not say if the Victory Plan was discussed, but he thanked Biden for a $425 million defense package, including “new air defense systems and long-range weapons”.

Zelenskiy also expressed gratitude to Australia for its commitment of another US$170.6 million in military assistance, including the provision of 49 “soon-to-be-retired” US-made Abrams M1A1 tanks.

We value our partnership with Australia and its meaningful contribution to achieving just and lasting peace in Ukraine, restoring stability in Europe, and protecting rules-based international order.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has presented the Victory Plan to defeat Russia’s 32-month invasion.

Appearing in Parliament on Wednesday, Zelenskiy laid out the Plan’s five elements.

[This] is a plan to strengthen our state and our position. To be strong enough to end the war. To make sure that Ukraine has all its muscles….

If the plan is supported, we can end the war no later than next year.

The first element is an invitation to join NATO, approving Kyiv’s formal application submitted in September 2022.

Most of the bloc’s 32 members have taken the line that accession would have to follow the conclusion of the war. However, the recently-departed NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and some officials are indicating that Ukraine can join sooner, particularly if a negotiated settlement leaves Russia in control of part of the country.

Zelenskiy said to legislators, “We understand that NATO membership is a matter for the future, not the present.” However, he said the extension of an invasion now would show Vladimir Putin the error of “his geopolitical calculations”.

The Plan’s second element is defense. It includes Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region in western Russia, countering Moscow’s effort to seize more Ukrainian territory; the lifting of restrictions on long-range strikes inside Russia, and other supplies of long-range capabilities and air defense.

The third element is deterrence of Russian aggression. Part of the secion is still clasified, but Zelenskiy emphasized that Ukraine is proposing a “comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its territory”.

Russia acts aggressively only when it is convinced it will not face an adequate destructive response. When Russia knows there will be a response, and understands what that response will be, they choose negotiations and stable coexistence, even with strategic adversaries.

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The fourth element is joint investment; use of resources, such as uranium, titanium, and lithium; and economic growth and cooperation. A special agreement on these areas is being pursued with the European Union and the US.

The Plan also calls for an escalation on international sanctions against Russia.

The fifth element is post-war security architecture. Zelenskiy spoke of Ukraine’s large and experienced military force strengthening NATO and European security.

“If the partners agree, then after the war, we envisage replacing certain US military contingents stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units,” he said.

“We are a democratic nation that has proven that it can protect our common way of life,” Zelenskiy told Parliament.

He warned:

If Putin achieves his insane geopolitical, military, ideological, and economic goals, it will create an overwhelming impression for other potential aggressors, particularly in the Gulf region, the Indo-Pacific region, and Africa, that wars of aggression can be profitable for them as well.

Zelenskiy then addressed the international community: “This plan can be implemented. It depends on our partners. I emphasize: on partners. It definitely does not depend on Russia.”

Some opposition legislators criticized the Plan for vagueness and relying too much on partners. They said it ignores domestic issues, such as pro-democratic and anti-graft reforms, which are important in achieving NATO membership.

Roman Lozynskyi, a lawmaker formerly from the opposition Holos (Voice) Party, posted on Facebook that the Plan has a “great agenda” but the steps to achieve them remain unclear.

On one hand, the Victory Plan sounds like a fantasy. On the other hand, so did the Patriots, Storm Shadows, the F-16s, sinking a chunk of the [Russian] Black Sea Fleet, and controlling part of Kursk Oblast.

Lozynskyi stressed that everything now rests “on the decisions of partners and the success of our diplomacy” as well as unity among the Ukrainian leadership and the opposition.