Destruction from Russian attacks on the center of Kupyansk in northeast Ukraine


Tuesday’s Coverage: Russia Plans “Actual Involvement of North Korea”


Vic

Map: Institute for the Study of War


UPDATE 1822 GMT:

The Ukraine Security Service (SBU) has arrested one of the heads of security of the state-owned energy company Ukrenergo.

Unnamed officials said Oleh Hrybenko, responsible for maintaining the security of critical infrastructure facilities, has been detained for justifying Russia’s full-scale invasion, questioning the existence of an independent Ukrainian state, and supporting the murder of civilians.

The SBU said that Hrybenko leaked information about the consequences of strikes on critical infrastructure facilities.


UPDATE 1817 GMT:

An Australian military package worth A$245 million ($163 million) to Ukraine will include 49 “soon-to-be-retired” US-made Abrams tanks.

Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy said, “These tanks will deliver more firepower and mobility to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and complement the support provided by our partners for Ukraine’s armored brigades. Australia has been steadfast in our support for Ukraine.”

During Russia’s full invasion, Australia has provided Ukraine with more than $1 billion in aid, including $866 million in military assistance.


UPDATE 1404 GMT:

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency HUR says its units destroyed almost an entire Russian regiment as they liberated 400 hectares (988 acres) of forest in the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine.

The operation was conducted north of the village of Lyptsi, 10 km (6.2 miles) south of the Russian border.

HUR said Ukrainian soldiers captured a Russian battalion defense area, destroying three motorized rifle battalions, a Storm platoon, and a reconnaissance company of Russia’s Seventh Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment.

“The successful HUR mission sets conditions for further ousting the Russian occupiers from the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast,” the agency declared.

Russia launched a cross-border offensive into the Kharkiv region into May, advancing up to 10 km until it was checked.


UPDATE 1243 GMT:

Six Russian soldiers who fled the war in Ukraine, apply for political asylum in France, have been granted temporary visas.

The men arrived in Paris on separate flights over the last few months after fleeing from Russia to Kazakhstan in 2022 and 2023.

“When I landed in France, it was the first time I could breathe fully. I felt a sense of calmness and freedom…the worst was behind me,” said Alexander, a former Russian contract soldier who deserted in Ukraine during summer 2023.

“France’s decision is the result of extensive collaboration between French authorities and a group of human rights organizations,” said Ivan Chuviliaev, spokesperson of the Go By The Forest, a group helping Russian soldiers desert. “We hope this marks the beginning of more deserters being let into Europe.


UPDATE 0929 GMT:

Appearing in Parliament, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has presented the Victory Plan against Russia’s invasion.

The Plan has five elements: an invitation to Kyiv to join NATO, defense aspects, including Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region in western Russia, the lifting of restrictions on long-range strikes inside Russia, and other supplies of long-range capabilities and air defense; deterrence of Russian aggression; joint investment, use of resources, and economic growth and cooperation; and post-war security architecture.

Some sections are still classified. Three secret amendment will be presented to party leaders.

“If the plan is supported, we can end the war no later than next year,” Zelensky told legislators.

Ukraine’s Victory Plan is a plan to strengthen our state and our position. To be strong enough to end the war. To make sure that Ukraine has all its muscles.

This plan can be implemented. It depends on our partners. I emphasize: on partners. It definitely does not depend on Russia.

Zelenskiy warned, “If Putin achieves his insane geopolitical, military, ideological, and economic goals, it will create an overwhelming impression for other potential aggressors, particularly in the Gulf region, the Indo-Pacific region, and Africa, that wars of aggression can be profitable for them as well.”

Some opposition legislators criticized the Plan for vagueness and relying too much on international partners. They said it ignores domestic issues, such as pro-democratic and anti-graft reforms, which are important in achieving NATO membership.

Roman Lozynskyi, a lawmaker formerly from the opposition Holos (Voice) Party, posted on Facebook that the Plan has a “great agenda” but the steps to achieve them remain unclear.

On one hand, the Victory Plan sounds like a fantasy. On the other hand, so did the Patriots, Storm Shadows, the F-16s, sinking a chunk of the [Russian] Black Sea Fleet, and controlling part of Kursk Oblast.

Lozynskyi stressed that everything now rests “on the decisions of partners and the success of our diplomacy” as well as unity among the Ukrainian leadership and the opposition.


UPDATE 0848 GMT:

Ukraine’s Ambassador to NATO, Nataliia Galibarenko, says Kyiv wants an invitation for membership before the term of US President Joe Biden ends on January 20.

“Our idea is that giving Ukraine [an] invitation at this moment is a political signal,” Galibarenko said on Tuesday. “We sincerely believe that it can be part of the legacy of [the] current American administration.”

The Democratic nominee for November’s Presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris, has pledged ongoing support for Kyiv but without a specific commitment to the timing of NATO membership.

The Republican nominee, Donald Trump, and his Vice Presidential running mate J.D. Vance have supported the rhetoric of Vladimir Putin and have indicated that they would limit or cut US funding of Ukraine’s resistance of the Russian invasion.

Galibarenko said, “If we will say that the invitation is there, for the Russian Federation, it would be like a final verdict – so that’s it, so you cannot raise the stakes using this topic anymore.”

Asked when the invitation should be issued, she replied, “The sooner the better.”


UPDATE 0709 GMT:

Spanish authorities have arrested four people suspected of running a commercial network to break sanctions on Russia.

Police and customs officials in Barcelona intercepted 13 tons of chemical products bound for Russia. Initial findings indicate a company managed by “citizens of Russian origin” is behind the scheme.

“During the investigation, it was proven that internationally sanctioned chemicals, some of them possible precursors for chemical weapons or nerve agents, had been exported in the past using this company structure,” the national police and tax authority said.

The firm sent the chemicals to its Moscow-based subsidiary through shadow companies in countries such as Armenia or Kyrgyzstan.


UPDATE 0653 GMT:

Alexei Moskalyov, imprisoned in Russia for two years because of his daughter Masha’s anti-war picture, was released on Tuesday.

Moskalyov was greeted by human rights defenders and Masha, who was 12 when she drew Russian missiles raining down on a Ukrainian mother and child. The head of her school called the police.

Moskalyov spoke of being put in a cramped cell infested by rats. “We were on our feet for 16 hours every day because the beds were fastened to the wall and the metal bench was so cold that it was impossible to sit on it.”


UPDATE 0642 GMT:

A “Western diplomat” says North Korea has sent 10,000 soldiers to Russia to prop up the 31 1/2-month invasion of Ukraine.

The diplomat told the Kyiv Independent that the type of troops or their roles are unclear.

The claim bolsters reports from South Korean and Ukrainian officials of Pyongyang’s expanding support as Vladimir Putin tries to break Ukraine’s resistance.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on Monday about the “increasing alliance” which includes “the actual involvement of North Korea in the war”.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian military intelligence officials said Russia’s 11th Airborne Brigade is forming a 3,000-person “battalion” staffed by North Korean citizens. The force will likely be involved in Russian operations against the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region in western Russia.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun said last week of North Korean military forces in Ukraine, “As Russia and North Korea have signed a mutual treaty akin to a military alliance, the possibility of such a deployment is highly likely.”

Ukrainian officials reported that six North Korean personnel were killed and three injured on October 4 while visiting a Russian military facility near occupied Donetsk city in eastern Ukraine.

US National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said on Tuesday that Washington is “concerned” by the reports.

“Such a move would also indicate a new level of desperation for Russia as it continues to suffer significant casualties on the battlefield in its brutal war against Ukraine,” Savett told reporters.


UPDATE 0635 GMT:

Ukraine air defenses downed 51 of 136 Iran-type attack drones fired by Russia across 14 Ukrainian region overnight.

Another 60 disappeared from radars, probably because of electronic counter-measures, and two returned to Russia.

All UAVs approaching Kyiv were destroyed, the Ukrainian military reported.

The Russians also struck the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine with an S-300/400 anti-aircraft guided missile. They launched a Kh-59 cruise missile on the Chernihiv region in northern Ukraine.


ORIGINAL ENTRY: Authorities are evacuating residents from the city of Kupyansk, in the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine, because of the threat of Russian shelling.

Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov announced on television on Tuesday:

Due to the security situation, a decision has been made to intensify evacuation measures for civilians in the Kupiansk district, including the city of Kupyansk….

On the east bank of the Oskil River, which divides the city, we can no longer guarantee the restoration of electricity, heat and water supply due to constant shelling.

The Governor said “repair crews immediately come under Russian fire” as they tried to work.

Kupyansk, with a pre-invasion population of almost 27,000, was occupied in the first weeks of the Russian assault in February 2022. It was liberated by Ukrainian forces that September.

As the Russians gradually advance in the neighboring Donetsk region in a year-long offensive, they have stepped up their shelling and airstrikes on Kupyansk.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russia carried out 26 attacks near the city over the past day.