Mourners gather in Majdal Shams in Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights for funeral of one of the juveniles killed by a Hezbollah rocket strike, July 28, 2024 (Menahem Kahana/AFP)

UPDATE, JULY 30:

I joined the Pat Kenny Show on Dublin NewsTalk for a 15-minute analysis of the significance of Hezbollah’s killing of juveniles in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and whether this will lead to a ground war in southern Lebanon.

I explain why the immediate Israeli response is likely to be “harsh but contained”, and why Hezbollah and its backer Iran do not want a ground confrontation.

But will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in political and legal trouble, risk a second front alongside his open-ended military operations in Gaza?

Listen to Discussion from 1:01.36

UPDATE 1207 GMT:

I joined India’s WION on Monday to evaluate further the chances of an expanded confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, following Saturday’s killing of 12 juveniles in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

I also call out Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s bluster that he will intervene in Israel on behalf of Palestinians, and I explain why Iran is unlikely to press Hezbollah to extend its military response against the Israels.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, JULY 29: I joined France 24 English on Sunday to analyze the significance of Hezbollah’s killing of 12 juveniles, aged 10 to 20, in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

I review Saturday’s rocket strike on a football match in Majdal Shams, with a largely Druze community. Then I examine if it will escalate Israel-Hezbollah skirmishes, ongoing since October 7 and the mass killings by Hamas in southern Israel and then Israel in Gaza.

I explain that neither Hezbollah, which lost more than 350 personnel in the skirmishes, nor its backer Iran want a war. But will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in political and legal trouble and pressed by hard-right Ministers, risk that confrontation alongside the open-ended military operations in Gaza?

I’ve said up to now that the Israelis don’t want a two-front war. They’re tied down in Gaza. There’s international pressure on them to limit their military operations, let alone open up a wider war with Hezbollah.

But there may be a lot of pressure on ministers from part of Israeli society to do something more aggressive than hit Hezbollah ammunition depots.

Meanwhile, I emphasize, “The Druze community is caught between Hezbollah and the Israeli occupiers. They are in a no-win situation where they could get hit by either side.”