Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, June 5, 2026

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EA-Ukraine VideoCasts: How Serious is Russia’s Fuel Situation?

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I joined Ukrainian journalist Daniel Tkiie on Monday for a 23-minute analysis of the latest developments in Ukraine’s resistance of Russia’s 52 1/2-month full-scale invasion.

I urge restraint over claims that a desperate Vladimir Putin, facing Ukraine’s counter-attacks and the international support for Kyiv, would resort to nuclear weapons. Commenting on a report that China has cautioned the Kremlin against that ultimate step, I note how Russia would effectively admits its loss on the battlefield — and further isolate itself — with the “scorched-earth” option.

I begin with the possibility of a Donald Trump shift towards Ukraine as a “winner”, including acceptance of US licenses for anti-ballistic missile production.

Then I address reports of disquiet amongst Russia’s elites, while cautioning against the expectation that they will force Putin to accept a ceasefire on current frontlines. But I add:

Rather than saying Putin can escalate, it’s more a question of whether Putin can maintain the invasion given what Ukraine is doing in response.