Supporters of Iran’s regime gather after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the US-Israel War, Tehran, April 8, 2026 (Majid Asgaripour/WANA)
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Hours after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the US-Israel War on Iran, I appeared on international outlets to analyze why the Trump camp backed away from its threat that “the Iranian civilization will die tonight”.
But I also consider the shakiness of the halt, as Israel continues its assault on Lebanon and the White House and Iran quarrel over the terms for negotiations.
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I explain Trump’s retreat and the Administration not daring to put in ground troops. I make clear that he agreed to negotiate on the basis of Iran’s 10 points.
However, given that the Trump camp is unlikely to accept those terms, I evaluate the prospects for any talks.
If the Trumpists show up in Pakistan, will they negotiate? Or will they try to reclaim their advantage by demanding an end to Iran’s civilian nuclear program and limits on ballistic missiles, returning us to the position of late February?
I decline to predict, “How long will this go on?”
We have to lay out the key points about the damage and instability that has been caused and ask, “Can this be limited in the long term?”
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I joined host David McCullagh on Wednesday morning to establish how the Trump camp switch from all-out assault to ceasefire and to consider if this a long-term halt to attacks.
I also explain why Iranians who want political and social change have been set back by the US-Israel War.
The other analysts are BBC correspondent Orla Guerin and geopolitical strategist Aidan Meagher.