Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and Donald Trump (Sky News Australia)

EA on RTE and BBC: Trump Administration Seizes A Venezuelan Oil Tanker

EA-RTE Podcast: A Trump War on Venezuela?

UPDATE 1614 GMT:

I was asked by India’s WION on Sunday, “Which Latin American country do you think is next on America’s radar?”

I reply by citing the threats of Donald Trump and Secretary of State Rubio on Saturday, even as they celebrated the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, to three countries: Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia.

Trump is saying, “We can dominate this hemisphere wherever we want.”

It doesn’t mean the US will pursue military action. I think they will have their hands full with Venezuela. But Trump is going to shake his fist at anybody whom he doesn’t think is following him and his vision of politics and US power.

I then consider how Congress might — or might not — act.

Watch from 3:51:

UPDATE 1030 GMT:

I joined Canada’s CBC on Saturday night for a 7-minute analysis of the consequences of the Trump Administration’s abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, from the breaking of international law to a “19th-century American colonialism on steroids” because of the personal ambitions of Trump and his advisors, oil, and the quest for regime change.

Much of what Trump said in his press conference was incoherent. There were a lot of falsehoods and deviations. He looks to be in declining health.

But amid the nonsense, he had a moment of honesty. He want the US to occupy Venezuela and to take Venezuela’s oil.

Interestingly, host Deana Sumanac-Johnson asks, “How far can Trump go?” while citing his threats to make Canada “the 51st state”. I reply:

The post-1945 international order and the “rules of the game” are not there for the Trump Administration. The rules for Donald Trump is what benefits Trump. For others, it’s a unilateral power grab.

I am not anticipating that US Special Forces are going to abduct [Canadian] Prime Minister Mark Carney on trumped-up charges. But I would say that this is an Administration who does not see an alliance with Canada, and they will put pressure on you.

UPDATE, JAN 4:

Alongside Cairo-based political analyst Mohamed Osman, I joined India’s NewsX World on Saturday to consider what we know — and don’t know — about the Trump Administration’s abduction of of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

I note the blatant violation of international law and defiance of the international system of order while assessing the Administration’s motives.

If Venezuelans do not rise up against a Government which is still in place despite the kidnapping of Maduro, what does the Trump Administration do next?

Do they carry out more airstrikes on Venezuelan ports and airbases? Do they dare put US troops into Venezuela? Do they promote certain opposition leaders even though that might put a target on their backs?

Even though the operation to seize Maduro has been successful, the Trump Administration doesn’t appear to have thought out what it does next.

UPDATE 1729 GMT:

I spoke further with Alexis Conran of Times Radio about the Trump Administration’s motives in abducting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the difficulties it still faces in carrying out “regime change”, and the likely consequences of the operation.

In a remark which may have been overtaken by Trump’s declaration that the US “will run Venezuela” and take its oil, I evaluate the reaction of Republicans in Congress:

I don’t see a significant faction standing up against Trump as long as this is presented as just getting one bad guy.

If, however, this goes on for some time with the Trump Administration trying to overthrow the government and runs into difficulties, then you might see more discontent.

And I answer the question whether Trump could go farther in trying to seize oil and natural resources, for example, in Greenland.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, JAN 3: I joined DW News’s rolling coverage on Saturday of the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores by US special forces.

I make clear at the beginning that the kidnapping is part of the Trump Administration’s efforts for regime change in Venezuela. I outline the other motives: the “get-tough” posing by Donald Trump and his officials like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; Trump’s desire to seize the oil of other countries; and the broader National Security Strategy — the “Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine” — to treat the Western Hemisphere as a US-dominated zone.

This is not to ignore the serious issues under the Maduro regime: regarding the economy, the political repression, the more than 3 million Venezuelans who have fled.

But this is an attempt by the Trump Administration to exert its power by toppling this government.

But will Trump succeed? I explain how the Administration is counting on an uprising. However, “Venezuelans might not like what Maduro is doing to the country, but they don’t want to just carry out the American demands to get rid of their own government”.

I push back the question, “Who might fill the power vacuum in a post-Maduro Venezuela?”:

You still have a government which is in place. It is still running the country and calling for resistance against the Americans.

The Trump Administration is promoting opposition leaders but “is this a seal of approval or a target on their backs”?

Watch from 19:14: