Donald Trump speaks with reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House, Washington D.C., June 24, 2025 (Evan Vucci/AP)

EA on International Media: How Iran Maneuvered Trump Into Tweeting “Ceasefire”

Q&A: Israel, Iran, and Trump — Escalation or Ceasefire?

Iran’s Token Missile Strike Manipulates Trump Into Declaring “Ceasefire”

UPDATE 1646 GMT:

Donald Trump has spoken vaguely about the resumption of talks with Iran, indicating that he would insist Tehran give up all enrichment.

I mean, they had a war they fought. Now they’re going back to their world.

I don’t care if I have an agreement or not.

The only thing we would be asking for is what we were asking for before, we want no nuclear.

UPDATE 1639 GMT:

Donald Trump is again raving on social media about the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last Saturday:

We’ve collected additional intelligence, and we’ve also spoken to people who have seen the site—and the site is obliterated!

Last weekend, the United States successfully carried out a massive precision strike on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, and it was very, very successful — It was called OBLITERATION. This incredible exercise of American strength has paved the way for peace, with a historic ceasefire agreement.

UPDATE 1418 GMT:

A “French diplomatic source” says Paris conveyed to Iran the terms of a ceasefire with Israel, at the request of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as the Iranians were staging token missile strikes on an American airbase in Qatar.

On Monday, Rubio called French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot, to “inform him of the US wish for a ceasefire provided there was no Iranian retaliation”. He asked Barrot to transmit the information to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

Araghchi indicated his “availability to continue negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program” including with France, Germany, and the UK.

UPDATE 1314 GMT:

While blustering throughout the morning about “obliteration” of Iranian nuclear facilities and attacking the “fake news media” who reported on a US intelligence assessment indicating otherwise (see 1049 GMT), Donald Trump wavered at one point.

“The intelligence was very inconclusive,” Trump told journalists. “The intelligence says we don’t know. It could’ve been very severe. That’s what the intelligence suggests.”

But he then recovered, “It was very severe. There was obliteration.”

UPDATE 1219 GMT:

Israel’s officials are divided over the outcome of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Some officials have told media that a preliminary assessment shows “very significant damage”.

“We don’t think the operation went wrong and we have no indication that the bunker busters didn’t work. No one is disappointed,” one source told reporters.

But other officials said earlier (see 1111 GMT) that the outcome at the Fordoo underground nuclear complex was “really not good”.

UPDATE 1156 GMT:

Giving some comfort to Donald Trump’s proclamations, Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, “Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure.”

He refused to go into detail but conceded that US strikes on Saturday night had been “significant”.

UPDATE 1123 GMT:

Ben Gurion University says six research laboratories were destroyed and nine damaged by an Iranian missile that struck the Soroka University Medical Center last Thursday.

The destruction “wiped out years of work on diverse research projects in medicine and biology,” the university said. It estimated the cost of repair will be “tens, and perhaps even hundreds, of millions of shekels”.

UPDATE 1111 GMT:

Doubling down on his insistence of the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program by US strikes, Donald Trump — either lying or revealing Israel’s secret operation — has declared about the Fordoo underground uranium enrichment complex:

You know they have guys that go in there after the hit, and they said it was total obliteration

Israel is doing a report on it now, I understand, and I was told that they said it was total obliteration….I believe they didn’t have a chance to get anything out because we acted fast.

Israeli officials said they were unaware of any operation.

They downplayed damage at Fordoo, saying the outcome was “really not good”. They are unaware how much enriched uranium Iran may have relocated ahead of the strikes, or how many centrifuges remain to enrich uranium in the future.

Conclusive findings may take months, if they are obtained at all, one official said.

UPDATE 1049 GMT:

On the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, Donald Trump and his Defense Secretary, the TV pundit Pete Hegseth, have ranted about an initial US intelligence assessment that found limited damage from American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

In a press conference alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Hegseth insisted there was “moderate to severe damage” and announced an FBI investigation into the leak of the assessment.

Trump berated the “failing New York Times, it’s gone to hell” and “CNN, very few people are watching”.

Misrepresenting the assessment, he blustered:

The intelligence was very inconclusive. The intelligence says we don’t know. It could’ve been very severe. That’s what the intelligence suggests. It was very severe. There was obliteration.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to dismiss the reality of the assessment: “This is what a leaker is telling you. This is the game they play.”

Trump added a comparison to the US atomic bombs on Japan in 1945, “I don’t want to use an example of Hiroshima, I don’t want to use an example of Nagasaki, but that was essentially the same thing — that ended a war.”

UPDATE 0937 GMT:

After his outburst on Tuesday over Israel’s breaking of a ceasefire, Donald Trump has praised the Netanyahu Government for scaling back the attack to a single strike on a radar facility northeast of Tehran.

Just after Trump’s rant, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the reality TV star in a phone call that the warplanes could not be recalled. However, he agreed to the change in targeting, rolling back Defense Minister Israel Katz’s pledge of “intense strikes” on central Tehran.

“I was so proud of them,” Trump said at the NATO summit in The Hague. “It was a great thing.”

He also promoted Israel’s suspect claim that Iran broke the ceasefire by firing two missiles on the north of the country: “Technically they were right. It was a little bit of a violation.”

Asked if he would strike Iran again if it repairs its uranium enrichment facilities, Trump said, “Sure.”

Providing no evidence, he declared that the war on Iran would lead to a resolution of Israel’s war on Gaza, “I think that because of this attack that we made. I think we’re going to have some very good news….Gaza is very close.”

UPDATE 0840 GMT:

Despite the US intelligence assessment indicating that Iran’s nuclear program was not ended by Saturday’s American strikes and was set back only a few months, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted:

The bottom line is, they are much further away from a nuclear weapon today than they were before the president took this bold action.

Significant, very significant, substantial damage was done to a variety of different components, and we’re just learning more about it.

Israel Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said, “It is still too early to determine, we are investigating the results of the strikes on the different sections of the nuclear program.”

He maintained, “The assessment is that we significantly damaged the nuclear program, and I can say we set it back by years.”

UPDATE 0830 GMT:

Iran’s Parliament has approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The Majlis voted 221-0, with 1 abstentions and 68 absences.

“The International Atomic Energy Agency, which refused to even marginally condemn the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, put its international credibility up for auction,” said Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. “The Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran will suspend its cooperation with the IAEA until the security of the nuclear facilities is guaranteed.”

After the vote, legislators chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”.

The Supreme National Security Council must give a final endorsement to the measure for it to take effect.

UPDATE 0716 GMT:

Iran’s authorities have hung three men accused of spying for Israel, the third set of executions in days.

“Idris Ali, Azad Shojai, and Rasoul Ahmad Rasoul, who attempted to import equipment into the country to carry out assassinations, were arrested and tried for…cooperation favoring the Zionist regime,” announced the judiciary.

The men were killed in Urmia in northwest Iran near the border with Turkey.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: A US intelligence report has demolished the claims of Donald Trump and his Administration that American strikes last Saturday “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.

The US attacked Iranian sites at Fordoo, Natanz, and Isfahan with 14 “bunker buster” bombs and Tomahawk missiles. Trump claimed moments after the operations that Iran’s program — which enriched uranium to 60% but was not pursuing a military grade of more than 90% — had been ended in a “spectacular military success”.

The claim soon ran into trouble, despite its amplification by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. A Battle Damage Assessment was still being conducted. Nuclear experts noted that while the US had tried to reach Fordoo, buried deep inside a mountain near the Holy City of Qom, it had not struck key facilities at Isfahan and had not even attempted to hit the new, large complex at Natanz for uranium enrichment.

“Three people briefed on the matter” told CNN on Tuesday of the initial assessment thby the Defense Intelligence Agency, based on the completed battle damage assessment by US Central Command. They said thee attacks likely only set back Iran’s program by months.

Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said centrifuges are largely “intact”.

The assessment also verified Iran’s claim that much of the equipment and uranium stockpile had been moved out of the facilities before the strikes.

“So the assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” one source summarized.

The officials briefed other outlets such as the New York Times and Reuters. While the strikes sealed off the entrances to two of Fordoo’s facilities, they did not collapse underground buildings.

Trump’s Denial

Donald Trump screamed in response, “THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED!”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted:

This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong….

The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program.

But Vice President J.D. Vance had already acknowledged on Sunday that the White House no longer knows where Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranian is: “We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel.”

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, amplified on Tuesday that inspectors can no longer account for the stockpile of 60% uranium.

And top political appointees at the Pentagon were briefed in January that the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs would not destroy Fordoo, as they would not penetrate deep enough. Only a tactical nuclear weapon could accomplish the task.

On Tuesday, the Administration scheduled and then postponed Iran briefings. Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois, said there is widespread belief in Congress that the delay was because of the embarrassing content of the assessment.

“They don’t delay briefings that have good news,” Quigley noted.