EA on TVP World: Putin’s Last Gamble — Using Trump to Defeat Ukraine

Thursday’s Coverage: Trump Administration Refuses to Call Putin A “War Criminal”

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1724 GMT:

Prosecutors say Russian forces have shot and killed two Ukrainian soldiers in their latest execution of prisoners of war.

The killings occurred on Thursday during an attack on Ukrainian positions near the village of Udachne, 12 km (7 miles) west of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

The Russian executed the POWs with automatic weapons in a nearby forest. The fate of two other Ukrainian soldiers remains unknown.

UPDATE 1422 GMT:

German-based Kontron exported sensitive technology to Russia via its Slovenian subsidiary, Kontron doo, despite European Union sanctions.

Kontron shipped more than €3.5 million ($3.9 million) of telecommunications equipment to its Russian subsidiary, Iskra Technologies, between July and November 2023. The 11 deliveries included the SI3000 telecommunications platform, a dual-use product capable of monitoring and intercepting communications.

Kontron said the exports were related to pre-sanction contracts and were authorized by Slovenian authorities under previously issued licenses.

However, EU sanctions apply to all dual-use technology contracts, including those signed before the restrictions took effect. Exceptions are granted only in specific cases such as cybersecurity, medical use, or emergencies — and only if authorized by the relevant national government.

UPDATE 1418 GMT:

One person has been killed and eight injured by two Russian ballistic missiles fired on the port city of Odesa in southern Ukraine.

Four of the wounded are in serious condition.

The strike damaged an engine room, destroyed equipment, and shattered windows of nearby buildings.

Oleksiy Kuleba, Minister for the Development of Communities, Territories, and Infrastructure posted, “There was not a single military facility, only civilian infrastructure. Russia has once again attacked a peaceful, strategically important facility that is vital for the world’s food security.”

UPDATE 1411 GMT:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed the completion of the first stage of the largest prisoner of war exchange during Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Each side released 390 people.

UPDATE 1355 GMT:

At least seven civilians were killed and 20 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

Air defenses downed 91 of 175 drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile launched by Russia overnight. Another 59 drones were lost to electronic counter-measures.

Three people were slain and four injured in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. In the Kherson region in the south, three civilians perished and six were hurt amid attacks on 43 settlements. One employee of a utility company was killed and one wounded by a Russian guided bomb attack on Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region in the northeast.

Casualties were also reported in the Poltava, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

UPDATE 1342 GMT:

Poland says it intercepted a Russian Su-24 aircraft performing dangerous maneuvers in Polish airspace on Thursday night.

Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said an order to intercept the aircraft was issued by the Joint Operational Command for NATO Allied Forces in Europe. Polish jets located the Su-24, intercepted it, and effectively deterred it.

UPDATE 1108 GMT:

Ukraine says a 1,000-for-1,000 exchange of prisoners of war with Russia is ongoing, after Donald Trump said the swap had been “completed”.

Trump posted, “A major prisoner swap was just completed between Russia and Ukraine. It will go into effect shortly. Congratulation to both sides on this negotiation. This could lead to something big?”

The exchange was arranged in talks in Istanbul on May 16.

UPDATE 1100 GMT:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected Pope Leo XIV’s offer to host talks with Ukraine in the Vatican.

Lavrov said, “It would be a bit inelegant for Orthodox countries to discuss on Catholic ground issues related to eliminating root causes” of Russia’s invasion.

UPDATE 0752 GMT:

Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has confirmed the appointment of Col. Gen. Andrei Mordvichev as the head of Russia’s ground forces.

Mordvichev, 49, is one of Russia’s youngest colonel generals. He is best known for overseeing the 12-week siege, destruction, and killing of tens of thousands of civilians in Mariupol in southeast Ukraine in spring 2022. He also supervised Russia’s capture of the town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine in 2023.

He replaces Gen. Oleg Salyukov, 70, moved by Vladimir Putin to Deputy Secretary of the State National Security Council.

UPDATE 0741 GMT:

Ukrainian drones have damaged Russia’s largest producer of chemical power sources.

The drones attacked an industrial zone in the city of Yelets in the Lipetsk region in western Russia overnight, starting fires. Among the sites struck was the Energia plant, sanctioned by the US and the European Union.

Energia produces batteries and accumulators for drones, aviation, naval fleets, and radio systems. It also provides lithium-ion and mercury-zinc elements used in communications, command systems, electronic warfare, and training simulators for tanks and missile systems.

The plant specializes in manufacturing photo-optical power units that provide autonomous energy supply without the need for power lines.

Moscow shut its four airports for the second time in three days.

UPDATE 0626 GMT:

The European Union has instituted temporary measures for Ukraine’s farm imports after failing to agree on a new long-term accord with Kyiv.

The EU has given tariff-free access to most Ukrainian agricultural imports since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. However, European farmers protest that the arrangements undercut their own produce.

The initial agreement with Ukraine is set to expire on June 5.

A return to prewar trade conditions would cut Ukraine’s export revenues by up to €3.5 billion ($3.97 billion) annually, slashing its projected economic growth for 2025 from 2.7% to 0.9%, estimates the Ukrainian Government.

A dozen Ukrainian legislators traveled to Brussles this week to appeal for a swift, long-term solution.

“This is the first time in our history a parliamentary committee has held a session outside the country,” said Dmytro Natalukha, chair of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Economic Affairs Committee. “The symbolism matters. We are here because trade with the EU is critically important to Ukraine.”

EU lawmakers approved tariffs on fertilizer imports from Russia on Thursday, despite farmers fearing that the step could raise prices.

UPDATE 0618 GMT:

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s military, says Kyiv should concede loss of territory to Russia in a resolution of the 39-month full-scale invasion.

Now Ukraine Ambassador to the UK, Zaluzhnyi told a forum in Kyiv, “I hope that there are not people in this room who still hope for some kind of miracle or lucky sign that will bring peace to Ukraine, the borders of 1991 or 2022 and that there will be great happiness afterward.”

He explained, “My personal opinion is that the enemy still has resources, forces and means to launch strikes on our territory and attempt specific offensive operations.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Russia is cutting major projects in key sectors because of falling revenues from oil and gas exports.

Oil prices in Russia reached a two-year low earlier this month. At $48.90 per barrel, they were about 40% lower than the $82.60 set for the Russian budget.

Oil and gas revenues accounted for almost 30% of Russia’s budget in January and February, according to government data.

The Kremlin has introduced sweeping budget cuts to state programs, reports the business daily Kommersant. They include programs in the aviation, automotive, technology, shipping, and robotics industries.

The aviation development program has been slashed by 22%, from 101.2 billion roubles ($1.27 billion) to 78.8 billion ($989 million). The reduction limits the replacement of Western aircraft with Russian planes.

The effort to raise output of Russia’s civilian goods by 40% by 2030 has been cut by 66.9 billion roubles ($840 million) in 2025. High-tech industries will lose 46 billion ($577 million); the automotive industry 35 billion ($439 million); production of innovative transport 25 billion ($314 million); and ships and ship equipment 12.6 billion ($158 million).

A program to boost the production of industrial robots is being slashed by almost a third — 1.7 billion out of 5.6 billion rubles.

Support of those programs is constrained by the demands of the 39-month full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia has increased its defense spending for 2025 by 25%, raising it to 6.3% of GDP, the highest share since the Cold War.

The Government has revised its 2025 budget deficit forecast upward to 1.7% of GDP from 0.5%.

G7 Pledges Freeze on Russian Assets

The G7 nations — France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, the UK, and the US — have pledged to maintain the freeze on Russian assets until the Kremlin ends its invasion of Ukraine.

Finance ministers said after a meeting in Canada, “We reaffirm that… Russia’s sovereign assets… will remain immobilized until Russia ends its aggression and pays for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.”

While welcoming “ongoing efforts to achieve a ceasefire”, the ministers promised to explore options “to maximize pressure such as further ramping up sanctions” on Russia if the ceasefire is not agreed.

They condemned “Russia’s continued brutal war against Ukraine” and commended “the immense resilience from the Ukrainian people and economy.”

The G7 remains committed to unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty and independence toward a just and durable peace.

The US joined the statement despite Donald Trump’s promotion of a restoration of economic links with Russia through direct talks with Moscow.

The Americans had reportedly balked at a statement of “further support” for Ukraine and refused to label Russia’s invasion as “illegal”.