Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky

Wednesday’s Coverage: Europe — More Sanctions if Putin is a No-Show in Istanbul

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1911 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasized after his meeting with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:

I want to sincerely thank President Erdoğan, his team, and the people of Türkiye for their support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. President Erdoğan reaffirmed during our meeting today that he supports Ukraine and recognises Crimea as part of Ukraine.

UPDATE 1803 GMT:

Russian officials have been justifying Vladmir Putin’s no-show at the Istanbul talks.

Speaking with The Moscow Times, one claimed that it was premature for Putin to be involved:

This is not how we do things. First, appointed negotiators do all the groundwork and prepare the documents. Only then does the President step in to discuss terms agreed in advance.

A former senior Kremlin official said, “Our leader doesn’t like being pressured. That’s a well-known fact.”

And a Russian diplomat dropped all pretense of diplomacy, “Zelensky is only suitable for signing a capitulation. Period.”

Former diplomat Boris Bondarev evaluated:

If Trump were to personally invite Putin, that would change everything. But Zelensky is not Putin’s equal, and he doesn’t want to talk to him face-to-face. After Zelensky’s ultimata, agreeing to meet would look like backing down and losing face.

UPDATE 1742 GMT:

Speaking after a NATO Foreign Ministers meetings in Antalya, Turkey, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized the lower-level delegation sent by Russia for talks with Ukraine.

I hope that those talks will be between Ukraine and Russia, with Turkish counterparts in the room, along with someone from our team or members of our team at the appropriate level.

But I want to be frank, I don’t think we have high expectations of what will happen tomorrow.

Rubio said he will meet with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and a senior Ukrainian delegation, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, in Istanbul on Friday. Separate talks will be held between other US officials and the Russian delegation.

The Secretary of State added, “I think it’s abundantly clear that the only way we’re going to have a breakthrough here is between President Trump and President Putin.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will meet the Russian delegation, led by Vladimir Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky, in Istanbul this evening.

UPDATE 1440 GMT:

At a press conference in Ankara, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv’s delegation to talks in Istanbul will be headed by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

While noting that Russia is not serious about peace talks, he said the mandate of the Ukrainian delegation is to discuss a ceasefire.

If an agreement was somehow reached to halt Russia’s invasion, it would not be necessary for him to see Putin, the President said.

But he continued:

Russia does not feel that it needs to end, which means there is not enough political, economic and other pressure on the Russian Federation.

And so we ask, if there is no ceasefire, if there are no serious decisions … we ask for appropriate sanctions.

UPDATE 1414 GMT:

Pope Leo XIV has called for freedom for all prisoners of war in Russia’s 38 1/2-month invasion of Ukraine.

The pontiff was handed a list of Ukrainian soldiers in Russian captivity, during a ceremony at the Vatican, by a representative of the families of the POWs.

“personally” handed him the document during the Jubilee of Eastern Churches held on May 12–14.

“My heart goes out to the suffering and beloved people of Ukraine. Let us do everything we can to bring about a true peace, a just and lasting peace, as soon as possible,” Pope Leo XIV said. “Let all the prisoners be released and let the children return to their families.”

UPDATE 1249 GMT:

Donald Trump has said of talks to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together.”

Speaking en route to the UAE, Trump downplayed Putin’s bailout on today’s meeting in Istanbul, “Why would he go if I’m not going?”

UPDATE 1148 GMT:

Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna says a Russian military jet “violated NATO territory” after the Estonian Navy tried to intercept a tanker in Moscow’s “shadow fleet.

Speaking in Antalya, Turkey ahead of a NATO informal meeting, Tsahkna said the Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet was deployed to “check the situation” after the tanker Jaguar refused to cooperate with Estonian authorities and was being escorted back to Russian waters.

The interception was in international waters in the Gulf of Finland. Estonian authorities said the tanker lacked a flag, meaning it had no authorization to sail.

After the incident on May 13, the tanker returned to the Russian port of Primorsk.

“This fighter jet violated NATO territory for close to one minute,” the Foreign Minister said. “The Russian Federation is ready to protect the ‘shadow fleet’….The situation is really serious.”

UPDATE 1139 GMT:

Arriving in Ankara, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said:

We’re in contact with the American side, I believe they’ll also be present in Turkey at a high level. As for the Russians, we’ll see. Nothing has been confirmed officially, but from what we’ve observed, it looks more like a theatre prop than a serious one.

What we do know for certain is who actually makes decisions on the Russian side. And we will act accordingly.

Zelensky’s office said the Preisdent “is accompanied by a high-level Ukrainian delegation capable of preparing the necessary decisions. We note that Russia has also sent a delegation to Turkey – unfortunately, of rather low rank and with an unclear mandate.”

UPDATE 1134 GMT:

As Vladimir Putin avoids talks in Istanbul, Ukraine’s air defenses shot down 62 of 110 drones fired by Russia overnight. Another 29 were lost to electronic counter-measures.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Having proposed direct Ukraine-Russia talks as a ploy to avoid a 30-day ceasefire, Vladimir Putin has bailed out of Thursday’s meeting with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul, Turkey.

After stalling for two days, the Kremlin finally said on Wednesday that Putin will not go to Turkey. Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov is also not attending.

Instead, the Kremlin delegation will be headed by Vladimir Medinsky, a hardline Putin aide who led the Russian side in talks with Ukraine in Turkey in March-April 2022.

Moscow’s delegation also includes Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency.

After the Kremlin issued its statement, a US official said Donald Trump will not go to Istanbul.

Earlier Zelensky, who has said that he will not meet any Russian apart from Putin, told the nation in his nightly video address:

I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Antalya, Turkey. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who is proposing toughened sanctions on Moscow, was also in the conversation.

Sybiha posted that the meeting was to “share President Zelensky’s vision of further peace efforts and coordinate positions during this critical week: “We discussed in detail the logic of further steps and shared our approaches.”

Zelensky travelled to Ankara, where he is scheduled to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday.