Azerbaijan leader Ilham Aliyev and his wife Mehriban Aliyeva with Donald and Melania Trump, September 2017
Baku’s Tightrope: How Azerbaijan Navigates Its Relationship With Israel
Donald Trump’s loud re-entry into the White House is being heard 6,000 miles away in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku.
In his initial days in office, Trump called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “senseless waste” that must be stopped and began scrutinizing US foreign aid programs. This was applauded by the Azeribaijani Government.
One of their loudest cheers was for Trump’s decimation of the US Agency for International Development, purging staff and — in association with “special Government employee” Elon Musk — demanding absolute allegiance to his agenda.
Azerbaijan had suspended USAID operations in mid-2024, accusing the agency of meddling in Government affairs. Trump’s campaign was vindication for their allegations, as Musk branded USAID a “criminal
organization”.
President Ilham Aliyev told the “Facing A New World Order” forum in Baku on April 9, “USAID, of course, is the number-one monster – a completely corrupt structure… As soon as the portfolio is ready, we will submit it to President Trump’s administration so they can take serious measures against this corrupt USAID and its corrupt leaders.”
Not only was Trump clamping down on what Baku saw as overreach by his predecessor Joe Biden. Not only was he vilifying a common foe. Trump was pursuing a transactional, interest-driven approach aligned with that of Azerbaijan. Deals and loyalty tests have replaced lectures on democracy.
For Baku, Pragmatism and Opportunity
Azerbaijani officials quickly signalled readiness to work with Trump’s team on pragmatic terms, seeing the opportunity for more straightforward engagement. State outlets applauded Trump’s stance: the Azerbaijan National NGO Forum, representing hundreds of organizations, published a letter praising Trump and Musk for exposing alleged USAI “misconduct” during the “lost years” of the Biden Administration.
The early optimism was bolstered by the regional context. Baku noted that while Russia and Turkey welcomed Trump’s shift, neighboring Armenia was anxious that human rights would be de-prioritized. Yerevan implored Trump to press for the release of
Armenian detainees held in Baku, an appeal made directly to the White House by Catholicos Aram I, a leader of the Armenian church.
With Trump offering no reassurance over the detainees, Aliyev was emboldened, both against Armenia and against internal critics seeking reform.
Opportunities and Risks
With a freer hand, thanks to the disappearance of Biden’s democracy-and-Russia agenda, Aliyev can proceed with a freer hand domestically to take advantage of opportunities.
Bilateral trade was already on the rise, reaching $1.75 billion in 2024, nearly double the 2023 total. Now Baku’s rich energy sector will benefit from Trump’s business-first endeavor to secure oil and gas routes through pipelines, transport corridors, and data cables across the South Caucasus.
However, significant uncertainties temper these opportunities. If an issue does not directly serve American interests, it may get scant attention. The status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia–Azerbaijan peace efforts could be in limbo, with Trump’s team giving no indication if it will mediate the
delicate negotiations between Yerevan and Baku and Yerevan.
A draft peace deal announced in March, but Azerbaijan set new
conditions and even resumed border shelling, stalling a final agreement despite Armenia’s readiness to sign. Baku is suggesting that Yereman must formally recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan and accept the removal of international monitors, including the European Union’s border mission. The contentious
“Zangezur corridor” is omitted, leaving Baku leverage to press that issue later.
The Trump Administration’s response has been largely rhetorical. The State Department praised the draft treaty as a “historic opportunity”, and officials urged a swift peace deal and the release of Armenian detainees. Thee US was now cheering from the sidelines rather than pressuring the parties, so Azeraijan could not count on Washington to manage any flare-up in hostilities.
The Double-Edged Management of Iran and Russia
Trump’s focus on countering Iran and Russia in the region cuts both ways for Azerbaijan. On the one hand, it aligns with Baku’s interest in curbing Iranian influence next door and limiting Moscow’s clout. Trump is expected to push for “less
Iran” and “less Russia” in the South Caucasus, which might translate into backing of Azerbaijani regional projects that bypass Tehran or reduce reliance on Moscow.
On the other hand, a confrontation between the US and Iran raises risks. It could destabilize the neighborhood, and Azerbaijan would need to balance its own ties with Tehran carefully.
Trump set a 60-day ultimatum for Tehran to curb its nuclear program, even threatening to bomb Iran if no new deal is reached. Alarmed by the possibility and facing an economic crisis, top Iranian officials persuaded the Supreme Leader to enter indirect talks with Washington.
If those discussions yield a live-and-let-live acceptance by Trump and Tehran, then Baku can benefit. But if they are inconclusive, an Iran — or a US Administration — pushed to the brink raises the specter of chaos that could spill across the border.
Meanwhile, Russia’s trajectory is far from certain. Weakened by sanctions and bogged down in Ukraine, any political turmoil or aggressive lunge by the Kremlin would be an unwelcome message in the Caucasus.
Alternatively, if Trump’s America stepped back from active engagement in the area beyond narrow interests, a power vacuum could emerge. Turkey as well as Russia might jostle to fill it. Baku has acted by curbing Russian “soft power” activities, immediately after Russian air defenses downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plan that crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. However, it will be difficulty to hold that line, if the reduced US diplomatic presense emboldens the Kremlin or encourages Ankara to push harder for its regional ambitions.
A New Chapter for US-Azerbaijan Relations?
Baku sees promise in Trump’s immediate policy shifts and is positioning itself as a willing partner in the region. At the same time, the longer-term implications of this presidency
are fraught with unknowns.
Trump’s erratic foreign policy means the newfound alignment could be short-lived. The space that Azerbaijan currently enjoys to sidestep Western pressure for reforms and to assert its regional aims might close as abruptly as it opened.
Baku is hedging its bets. Aliyev visited China for a three-day state summit with Xi Jinping last week.
The two leaders announced “the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Azerbaijan”. They signed 20 cooperation documents as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, covering areas such as legal affairs, green development, digital economy, intellectual property rights, and aerospace.
This high-profile outreach to the east signals that while Trump’s second term offers Azerbaijan an enticing opportunity to advance its interests, Baku is bracing for the unpredictable in Washington.
President Aliyev assured the Baku forum three weeks ago, “Taking into account the agenda of Trump’s administration, we can foresee that this period in our relations will be a very good opportunity to strengthen our partnership.”
