Vladimir Putin in the Kursk region in western Russia, March 12, 2025
Ukraine War, Day 1,136: Russia Murders 18, Including 9 Children, in Zelensky’s Hometown Kryvyi Rih
In a 28-minute VideoCast, I joined Times Radio’s Frontline on Thursday to analyze the state of Russia’s 37-month full-scale invasion of Ukraine, starting with the Kremlin’s refusal of a ceasefire.
I explain to host Kate Gerbeau how the Russians have tried to manipulate direct talks with the US, and Donald Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin, but may have put themselves into a corner with the breaking and rejection of Ukraine-US proposals for a cessation of attacks.
I evaluate how the Kremlin will try to get out of that corner, dangling a rare earth minerals deal with a visit of Putin’s financial advisor Kirill Dmitriev to Washington.
Ukraine, the “adults in the room” in the Trump Administration, and the Europeans still have the diplomatic initiative. That doesn’t mean a ceasefire, but Ukraine has the high ground that they are negotiating in good faith and Russia is not.
I consider the situation on the battlefield, where Russia’s gradual advance in eastern Ukraine is slowing, and the economic pressure on Moscow — including China’s cautious approach to the “strategic partnership” with a decrease in purchases of Russian oil.
The Russians are running into problems. So even if you don’t get a ceasefire, as long as Europe stays behind Ukraine and you keep Trump in play where he doesn’t side with the Kremlin, you’re doing OK.
And I ask if this might be resolved with an arrangement in which Russia’s occupation of part of Ukraine is accepted in the short term, while the rest of the country is bolstered with financial, economic, and military links to establish a position of long-term strength.
