A Palestinian detainee, freed from an Israeli prison, embraces a friend in Rafah, Gaza, February 1, 2025
I joined India’s WION on Saturday to analyze the state of the Israel-Gaza ceasefire as more hostages, freed by Hamas, return to Israel and more Palestinian detainees, released from Israeli prisons, return to Gaza.
While welcoming the releases under the six-week Phase 1 of the ceasefire, I express concern about whether there will be a Phase 2. I note the influence of the hard right in Israel, with their insistence on military government for Gaza and even the displacement of Gaza’s population; Hamas seeking to remain in power in the Strip; and Donald Trump advocating the transfer of all Gazans to other countries.
These are high obstacles. I think the best you can hope for in Phase 2 is deferring these issues until Phase 3. We get an agreement to release more hostages and detainees and maybe humanitarian obstacles, and buying six more weeks of breathing space until the problem recurs again.
I also discuss the significance of opening the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, for around 50 seriously ill and wounded Gazans — “an important symbol for what might a Phase 2, but one not affecting the political calculations”.
Watch from 2:05: