Donald Trump sits opposite Russian President Vladimir Putin during lunch at the Elysee Palace, Paris, France, November 11, 2018 (Guido Bergmann/Bundesregieriung/Getty)


Wednesday’s Coverage: India Begins Blocking Payments for Russia’s Oil


Map: Institute for the Study of War


UPDATE 1058 GMT:

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has responded to Donald Trump’s threat to impose sanctions if Russia does not conclude a deal to end its 35-month invasion of Ukraine.

We don’t see any new elements here. You know that Trump, in his first iteration of the presidency, was the American president who most often resorted to sanctions methods. He likes these methods. At least, he liked them during his first presidency.

Peskov said Moscow is ready for “equal and respectful dialogue” with Washington, but “no signals have been received yet”.


UPDATE 1038 GMT:

A US “senior defense officials” says additional North Korean forces will arrive in Russia “within the next two months”.

Western officials estimate North Korean forces have suffered around 1,000 killed in action and 3,000 missing or wounded in action as of mid-January, about one-third of Pyongyang’s 11,000 to 12,000 personnel in Russia.

Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s military commander-in-chief estimated this week that almost half of the North Koreans deployed had been killed or injured.


UPDATE 1026 GMT:

At least two civilians were killed and at least 46 injured, including a 2-month-old baby, by Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

Air defenses downed 57 of 92 drones launched by Russia overnight. Another 27 decoy drones were lost to electronic counter-measures.

The Russians also fired four Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles on Zaporizhzhia city.

The missile assault killed a 47-year-old man and injured at least 37 people, including the infant (see 0734 GMT).

The baby and four first responders are among 22 wounded who are in hospital. One apartment building was destroyed and 30 were damaged.

One civilian was killed and eight injured by an airstrike on Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Fourteen houses, eight apartment buildings, and dozens of other buildings, infrastructure facilities, and cars were damaged.

In the Kherson region in the south, seven people were injured and twelve houses damaged.


UPDATE 1013 GMT:

The European Union will provide €35 billion ($36 billion) in financial assistance to Ukraine in 2025, says European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis.

Dombrovskis said the funds will come through the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration credit initiative and the Ukraine Facility program. He posted after a meeting with Ukraine 1st Vice President Yulia Svyrydenko at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland:

G7 countries have pledged almost $50 billion in loans, backed by profits from frozen Russian assets, through the ERA initiative. The EU is contributing around $20 billion, and the US announced a $20 billion loan in December.

On January 10, Ukraine received €3 billion ($3.09 billion) from the EU, the first tranche of loans funded by the proceeds of the frozen Russian assets.


UPDATE 0734 GMT:

A 47-year-old man has been killed and at least 25 people, including a 2-month-old baby, wounded by a Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhia city early Thursday.

Four first responders were among the injured. Emergency workers are still searching for victims trapped beneath the rubble.

At least four explosions shook Zaporizhzhia shortly after 4 a.m. Residential buildings were damaged.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky commented, “Russia’s daily terror against Ukraine calls for increasing pressure on the terrorist”:


UPDATE 0722 GMT:

Addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, NATO head Mark Rutte has called on leaders to “step up, not scale back” support for Ukraine, ensuring Kyiv enters negotiations with Russia in a strong position.

Rutte spoke of the necessity to “change the trajectory of the war”. He warned that a “bad deal” would end with Vladimir Putin “high-fiving” with the leaders of North Korea, Iran, and China. With a Ukraine loss, Nato members would face “trillions” in extra spending to bolster their militaries.

“For [a deal] to be sustainable, we have to make sure that Putin will never, ever, ever again try to get a square kilometer of Ukraine in the future,” he said.


ORIGINAL ENTRY: Donald Trump has warned Vladimir Putin of taxes, tariffs and sanctions if Russia does not reach a deal to end its 35-month invasion of Ukraine.

Trump had been a long-time backer of Putin’s position, threatening to cut aid to Kyiv’s resistance. But since Monday, when he returned to the White House, Trump’s emphasis has been on Moscow’s acceptance of negotiation.

The reason for the shift is unclear. However, Trump is loudly declaring that he will be a “peacemaker” in his second term in office. His ego has been flattered by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has hailed Trump as “decisive” and a “man of strength”. And Trump’s key advisors on Ukraine, such as envoy Keith Kellogg and Rep. Mike Waltz, have favored an approach putting pressure on both Moscow and Kyiv to agree an end to the invasion.

Posting on his platform Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump said Russia’s economy was failing. Without a deal, he had “no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries”.

He continued, “Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way – and the easy way is always better.”

Just after his inauguration on Monday, Trump said of Putin, “He can’t be thrilled, he’s not doing so well. Russia is bigger, they have more soldiers to lose, but that’s no way to run a country.”

He followed up on Tuesday that it “sounds like” the US might impose fresh sanctions on Russia if Putin does not come to the negotiatating table: “We’re talking to Zelensky. We’re going to be talking with President Putin very soon. We’re going to look at it.”

The Kremlin has not responded directly. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Wednesday:

Compared to the hopelessness in every aspect of the previous White House chief, there is a window of opportunity today, albeit a small one.

It’s therefore important to understand with what and whom we will have to deal, how best to build relations with Washington, how best to maximise opportunities and minimise risks.

Russia’s Deputy Ambassador the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, appeared to brush off negotiations.

It’s not merely the question of ending the war. It’s first and foremost the question of addressing the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis.

So we have to see what the “deal” means in President Trump’s understanding.

Russian State outlet TASS featured criticism of Trump’s reference on Wednesday to “Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives”.

The outlet quoted the head of the “Safe Internet League”, Ekaterina Mizulina, “This is simply blasphemy and an insult to the memory of our ancestors.” She suggested that the enthusiastic attitude in Russia towards Trump “could have faded into the background for most people”.

In an interview in Davos, Zelensky said support of Ukraine “can’t be without the United States. Even if some European friends think it can be, no it can’t be. Nobody will [take the] risk without the United States.”

He added an appeal to Chinese President Xi Jinping:

He can push Putin for peace, I’m sure. President Trump is the strongest — and Xi Jinping. I think there’s no other ally who can really do it. His economy, Putin, depends very much on China.