Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at an international summit in Ramstein, Germany, January 9, 2025

Thursday’s Coverage: Russia Kills 13+ Civilians, Injures 133 in Zaporizhzhia

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1606 GMT:

Ukraine has received €3 billion ($3.09 billion) from the European Union, the first tranche of loans from the bloc funded by proceeds of frozen Russian assets.

The money is provided through the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration initiative. The G7 countries have pledged a $50 billion loan, with the EU contributing about $20 billion.

Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal posted:

UPDATE 1602 GMT:

A Ukraine missile struck a Russian warehouse storing ammunition and reconnaissance overnight, says an official in Ukraine’s State security service SBU.

The attack near the village of Chaltyr in Russia’s Rostov Oblast was carried out by the SBU and the Ukrainian Navy.

Ukrainian drones overloaded Russian air defenses, then a domestically-made Neptune missile hit the warehouse.

UPDATE 1553 GMT:

Japan has broadened its sanctions list over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, targeting individuals and entities from Russia, China, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Thailand, Turkey, and North Korea.

Another 29 Russian entities, including the Machine-Building Scientific and Production Union and Aleksinsky Chemical Plant, 3 banks, and 11 individuals are cited.

Sanctions were imposed on 31 foreign companies from China, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Thailand, Turkey, and Georgia; the Georgian bank MRB; and one North Korean citizen.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky responded:

UPDATE 1005 GMT:

Three civilians have been killed and 19 injured by Russian strikes across Ukraine over the past day.

In the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, two people were killed in the town of Siversk.

In the Kherson region in the south, one civilian was killed and 16 injured among attacks on 41 settlements, including Kherson city.

Air defenses downed 33 of 72 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. Another 34 were lost to electronic counter-measures.

UPDATE 0956 GMT:

Ukrainian prisoner of war Oleksandr Maksymchuk has told the independent Russian outlet Mediazona of torture by Russian forces.

Maksymchuk was sentenced last week to 20 years in a maximum security prison. After the verdict, he briefly spoke to Mediazona’s correspondent about his experience in the pre-trial detention center in Taganrog in Russia’s Rostov region.

He spoke of “every conceivable and inconceivable method of pressure: “During this time, I was tortured twice, beaten, and also subjected to psychological pressure with the use of special equipment, such as portable tasers.”

UPDATE 0831 GMT:

Some members of Russia’s elite are reportedly upset that Vladimir Putin is not doing enough to conquer Ukraine.

The independent Russian outlet Meduza bases its report on interviews with “two sources close to Putin’s administration”; one in the Russian government; a source close to the government’s leadership; two State Duma lawmakers; one Senator; and three high-ranking officials from different regions.

One of the sources close to the Kremlin said of the discontent among the elite, especially security officials, that the invasion was not finished in 2024: “What they have is not enough. [They need] a mobilization, a complete transition to a war footing, and that’s not happening.”

The source in the government says:

The main emotion is disappointment. We expected the war to end, for the fighting to end. Fatigue has been the main feeling for a long time. We’re already tired of waiting, even.

It feels like you’re going deeper and deeper every day. We also expected some kind of lifting of sanctions in exchange for peace. Now, they’re inflicting more and more pain.

The Russian economy is a “point of tension”, with big business open about its dissatisfaction with the Central Bank’s 21% interest rate. A Russian consultant, who works with both the Putin administration and big businesses, summarizes:

For now, the majority [of companies] are surviving somehow.

Everyone is putting on a brave face. Some are even growing. But this is happening due to the cannibalization of the assets of departing foreign companies, the weak ones.

Everyone understands this won’t last forever. It definitely won’t get better going forward.

“Certain hopes” revived among some in the elite with Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election in November, but these are “already not that high”: “The [Russian] President has his demands — the entire territory of four [of Ukraine’s] regions. Trump’s conditions are different. It’s unclear where the compromise lies.”

The source close to the Kremlin does not expect Putin to negotiate an end to the invasion, “The President likes to fight, it’s exciting for him. Why stop halfway if you can put the final squeeze on them?”

But Putin is still holding out against a full mobilization to complete the task.

Two sources close to Putin’s domestic policy team assess:

To put it bluntly, it’s clear what everything revolves around. [If] the SVO [invasion] ends, what happens next? [You would] need to tell people what will happen tomorrow, why it’s hard right now, when things will get easier, and how. And no one knows the answers.

UPDATE 0817 GMT:

While most of Ukraine’s allies were pledging support on Thursday, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz has reportedly blocked an additional €3 billion before federal elections on February 23.

The German Government has been debating additional military assistance for Ukraine for weeks, according to Der Spiegel. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius argued that the assistance would send a strong message to Kyiv that German support will not decrease.

Ukraine had requested three additional IRIS-T air defense systems; additional interceptors for Patriot air defense systems; 10 self-propelled howitzers; and artillery ammunition.

Scholz’s office reportedly argued there is no critical necessity for the package because assistance already planned will suffice in the short term. It does not want to impose decisions on the incoming government after the elections.

Germany’s 2025 budget includes €4 billion for military assistance to Ukraine.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: At a summit in Germany, Ukraine’s international partners have pledged $2 billion in support for Kyiv.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the commitment from 34 of the 57 attendees in a TV interview on Thursday: “We had a very good meeting, a very good result. There was $2bn in additional packages of support to Ukraine.”

The assistance include air defense, information technology, demining, naval forces, air forces, and artillery.

The summit was the latest recurrent gathering at the US airbase in Ramstein during Russia’s 34 1/2 invasion of Ukraine, and the last before Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20.

Zelensky told the gathering:

It’s clear that a new chapter starts for Europe and the entire world just 11 days from now.

We have to cooperate even more, rely on each other even more, and achieve greater results together.

He noted that a cutoff of military support to Ukraine, which Trump has threatened, “will only invite more aggression, chaos and war:

We’ve come such a long way that it would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now and not keep building on the defence coalitions we’ve created.

No matter what’s going on in the world, everyone wants to feel sure that their country will not just be erased off the map.

The President emphasized:

The key to resisting aggression is motivation. Motivation to risk your life to save your country. But motivation needs fuel, and the best fuel is success – successful actions, successful agreements. When our troops can shoot down Russian missiles, including ballistic ones, and keep Russian aircraft away from Ukraine, it provides the motivation we desperately need.

“The Stakes Are Still Enormous”

Praising Zelensky as a “leader who has made history”, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a $500 million aid package. It includes additional air defense missiles, ammunition, and equipment to support Ukraine’s US-made F-16 fighter jets.

Austin said, “The stakes are still enormous – for all of our security. If Putin swallows Ukraine, his appetite will only grow… [for] land grabs.”

Britain and Latvia announced that they and a group of European countries will supply Ukraine with 30,000 first-person view drones after placing contracts worth £45 million ($55.3 million) with manufacturers. Funding for the initiative comes from the two nations plus Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden.

Norway allocated €2 billion ($2.1 billion) for military aid to Kyiv in 2025, said Defense Minister Rustem Umerov after a meeting with his Norwegian counterpart Bjorn Arild Gram on the sidelines of the summit.

Canada’s Defense Minister Bill Blair pledged $305 million in additional military assistance. The package includes $138 million for Czechia’s initiative to procure and deliver large-caliber ammunition, and $70 million supporting Ukraine’s domestic production of military drones.

“The military assistance announced today provides Ukrainians with resources needed to resist Russian aggression,” Blair said. “Canada remains strongly committed to working with our Allies and partners to support Ukraine until victory.”

Zelensky in Rome

Zelensky travelled from the summit to Rome, where he met Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. He posted a summary:

Meloni reiterated the “all-round support that Italy ensures and will continue to provide to the legitimate defence of Ukraine”. She said “Trump has the ability to balance diplomacy and deterrence and I predict that this will be the case this time too”.