A Ukraine flag waves amid smoke from Russian missile and drone strikes on Dnipro, July 3, 2024

Tuesday’s Coverage: NATO Head — Strengthen Kyiv Before Negotiations

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1308 GMT:

Hosting Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said, “The latest information can confirm the validity of fears that Russia was planning acts of terrorism in the air not only against Poland.”

Russia is suspected by European agencies of involvement in a series of acts of sabotage in recent months, including the explosion of parcels destined for flights.

Tusk pledged to use Poland’s six-month Presidency of the European Union to advance Ukraine’s application for membership.

“We will break the standstill we have in this issue,” Tusk told reporters. “We will accelerate the accession process.”

Zelensky posted:

We discussed our defense, including the supply of weapons, weapons production, and related investments. We also focused on strengthening sanctions against Russia, ways to bring peace closer for Ukraine and all of Europe, and our active joint efforts in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations during Poland’s presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Zelensky also met Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda:

I thank Poland for its unwavering support for Ukraine’s NATO accession. Andrzej Duda has always promoted this issue.

I am also grateful to Poland for already providing 45 support packages, with the 46th package on its way.

UPDATE 1303 GMT:

Ukraine and Russia have exchanged 50 POWs, 25 on each side.

The exchange was brokered by the UAE, who also mediated a swap of more than 300 POWs in late December.

UPDATE 1254 GMT:

One civilian has been killed and 16 wounded by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

The Russians fired 43 missiles and 74 drones overnight. Air defenses downed 30 missiles and 47 drones, and 27 decoy drones were lost to electronic counter-measures.

A 52-year-old man was killed and a 74-year-old woman injured in the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine.

Eight people, including two children, were injured in Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine by a strike on a multi-story building.

Seven people were injured in the Kherson region in the south.

UPDATE 0938 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has commented on this morning’s Russian missile strikes:

We are grateful to everyone who is helping our nation. But this is not just about our country. Right now, through the defense of Ukraine, we are determining whether Europe and the democratic world as a whole can reliably and effectively stop wars for the long term.

UPDATE 0928 GMT:

The Kremlin has been in direct contact with Donald Trump’s team before his return to the White House on January 20, say “Russian government officials”.

Two officials told The Moscow Times that Putin and Trump advisors were in contact in November and December. They did not specify how many times the two sides were in contact.

They confirmed that Putin and Trump have spoken directly, despite the Kremlin’s denials of reporting that the men had a phone call after Trump’s election victory on November 5.

An official said both sides did not disclose the communications to shield Trump from pressure within the American political establishment.

Both our and Trump’s team have learned lessons from the past, when imprudence and insufficient restraint led to the scandal of election interference accusations, which ultimately greatly restricted Trump’s freedom of action.

Two Trump advisors have brushed aside Trump’s declaration that he would resolve Russia’s 34 1/2-month invasion “within 24 hours” of re-entering the White House.

The advisors say they are looking at a timeline of months. They described Trump’s pledge as a combination of campaign bluster, a lack of appreciation of the conflict, and the time it takes to staff a new administration.

Trump’s envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said last weekend that he hoped for a “solution” within 100 days.

UPDATE 0836 GMT:

Ukraine’s exports to the European Union were almost $25 billion in 2024, a 6% increase from 2023, says Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

Shmyhal said Kyiv has benefited from a trade visa-free regime that came into effect on June 6, 2022 and was recently extended until June 2025.

“Sixty percent of all Ukrainian exports are directed to the EU,” Shmyhal said.

UPDATE 0824 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has posted about his meeting in Kyiv on Tuesday with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius:

Our conversation focused on key priorities: building a comprehensive air defense shield, investing in Ukraine’s defense industry, ramping up Ukraine’s defense capabilities, training and supporting our soldiers on the battlefield.

Zelensky did not refer to reports that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has blocked an additional €3 billion in aid to Ukraine, despite the support of Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock for the assistance.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine is enduring “massive” Russian missile strikes on Wednesday morning.

The State grid energy operator Ukrenergo says it introduced emergency power cuts in six regions, as Energy Minister German Galushchenko said “preventative measures” were in force.

The Air Force warned of cruise missiles headed for the capital Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih in south-central Ukraine, the Chernihiv region in the north, the Poltava region in the center, the Mykolaiv region in the south.

Explosions are reported in the Kharkiv, Khmelnytski, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. In Lviv city in western Ukraine, Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said Russian forces had “attacked the energy infrastructure of our region”.

Poland’s Operational Command scrambled fighter jets because of the threat across the border in western Ukraine.

Ukraine Strikes Key Facilities Inside Russia

On Tuesday, Ukraine struck multiple targets deep inside Russia.

They included damage to one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, in the Saratov region 600 km (372 miles) from the border, for the second time within a week.

Video showed Explosions and a fire at the Kristall refinery, which supplies the Engels-2 airbase.

Strikes were also reported on a munitions storage facility with guided bombs and missiles at the Engels-2 airbase; a chemical plant in the Bryansk region in western Russia; the Aleksinsky chemical plant in the Tula region; and the Saratovsky oil refinery.