Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, Brussels, Belgium, December 18, 2024

Wednesday’s Coverage: Russia Arrests “Suspect” In Killing of Top General

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1436 GMT:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has told the European Union summit in Brussels that NATO is the best security guarantee for Ukraine.

However, while accession is awaited, Zelensky supported in principle the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron to put European troops in Ukraine.

“We share a common vision: reliable guarantees are essential for a peace that can truly be achieved,” Zelensky explained.

Kyiv was awaiting detail on the “military contingency” of the deployment of European forces.

We say that it could be part of the security guarantees. It goes without saying that NATO is the best security guarantee for Ukraine. And of course, until Ukraine is a member of Nato, this aspect could be considered as an alternative.

But the most important is that it is not just an artificial issue blown up. We need to have concrete mechanisms…what do they will do if Russia is attacking, for example.

Many, many questions are being raised. We’re discussing them.

The President described the frontline as “stable”, despite gradual Russian gains in eastern Ukraine in recent months.

But Zelensky said he does not have enough F-16 fighter jets “in our skies” to protect Ukrainian soldiers (see 0924 GMT).

“How can you push forward with the army when the missiles are falling on your head and you are not controlling the skies?” he asked the summit.

Zelensky also reflected on how Russia undermined a possible resolution in April 2022, in talks brokered by Turkey, by imposing unacceptable conditions over Ukraine’s military guarantees.

The discussions were close to agreement but Moscow then set new conditions over Ukraine’s neutral status and a pledge not to join NATO, strict limits on the size of Ukrainian armed forces, and a special status for eastern Ukraine bolstered the Russian proxy authorities in the region.

Ukraine did not agree to the ultimatum of Russian Federation….

They wanted to annihilate our army so the army did not exist (40-50,000 only). Putin was just suggesting to Ukraine to give up, to freeze the conflict…[for] Russia to take our independence, to deprive the future….

Putin is an old fantasizer. He lives in a different world. He lives in his own aquarium, I am afraid.

UPDATE 1132 GMT:

Kristina Berdynskykh posts an update about fellow Ukrainian journalist Victoria Roshchyna, who died in detention in Russia this summer.

UPDATE 1128 GMT:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has posted after her meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky i Brussels:

Zelensky also met European Council President António Costa:

UPDATE 0924 GMT:

Belgium has postponed its delivery of US-made F-16 warplanes to Ukraine.

Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder said the delay is because of shortages of spare parts and trained pilots. The delivery of new American F-35 fighters to Belgium, replacing the F-16s, is behind schedule.

In 2023, Belgium joined a coalition to transfer F-16s to Ukraine, along with the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway. It has committed to the provision of 30 fighter jets to Ukraine by 2028, with two to four this year.

The coalition is planning to transfer 79 fighters. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says the air forces needs 120 to 130 warplanes to counter Russia.

Ukraine received its first batch of F-16s from the Netherlands in early August, and two sets from Denmark since then.

UPDATE 0911 GMT:

A Ukrainian drone attack has damaged an oil refinery in the Rostov region in southwest Russia.

Videos on Telegram showed large fires at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery.

Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar said more than 30 drones and three missiles targeted the complex. He claimed that fires were extinguished by 6:45 a.m.

The Novoshakhtinsk refinery is the largest in southern Russia and the region’s only operational oil processing plant. It was repaired after a strike in June.

UPDATE 0857 GMT:

At least one civilian has been killed and at least eight injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

The fatality was in the Kherson region in the south of the country.

Air defenses shot down 45 of 85 Iran-type drones and other UAVs launched by Russia overnight. The other 40 drones were lost to electronic counter-measures.

A Russian missile attack has damaged infrastructure, two apartment buildings, a hospital, and a school in the Dnipropetrovsk region in south-central Ukraine early Thursday.

There were no immediate reports of casualities from the two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and a Kh-59/69 guided missile.

In the Sumy region in northern Ukraine, nine private residences have been damaged by a Russian missile.

UPDATE 0821 GMT:

Britain has announced another £225 million ($286 million) in military aid to Ukraine.

The package includes drones, boats, and air defense systems. It is funded by an executive panel comprising the UK, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Lithuania.

UK Defense Secretary John Healey visited Kyiv on Wednesday for talks with Ukrainian counterpart Rustem Umerov.

Taking a different line from that of Foreign Secretary David Lammy (see Original Entry), Healey did not rule out sending UK troops to Ukraine.

Healey said Britain needs to “make the training a better fit for what the Ukrainians need”. Asked if this meant the UK training Ukrainian recruits inside Ukraine, he said: “We will look wherever we can to respond to what the Ukrainians want. They are the ones fighting.”

UPDATE 0807 GMT:

South Korean legislator Lee Seong-kweun says at least 100 North Korean troops have been killed as they supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Lee said of the deployment of the North Koreans in Russia’s Kursk region, part of which has been held by Ukraine since August 6, “The National Intelligence Service also reported that the number of injured is expected to reach nearly 1,000.”

A “senior US military official” spoke on Tuesday of “several hundred” North Korean casualties. Ukraine’s Special Forces said earlier this week that they killed 50 North Korean soldiers and wounded 47 in the previous three days.

The UN Security Council was told on Wednesday that North Korea can produce ballistic missiles and supply them to Russia within months.

Jonah Leff, the head of Conflict Armament Research, said inspectors examined remnants of four missiles from North Korea recovered in Ukraine in July and August, including one that had marks indicating it was produced in 2024.

“This is the first public evidence of missiles having been produced in North Korea and then used in Ukraine within a matter of months, not years,” he said.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French counterpart Emmanuel Macron have discussed the possible deployment of European troops in Ukraine.

In Brussels to meet other leaders and to participate in a European Union summit, Zelensky posted on social media:

We share a common vision: reliable guarantees are essential for a peace that can truly be achieved. We continued working on President Macron’s initiative regarding the presence of forces in Ukraine that could contribute to stabilizing the path to peace.

Without referring to the troop proposal, Macron’s office said reinforced support for Ukraine was France’s “absolute priority”, including measures enabling Kyiv to defend itself and to make Russia’s war of aggression fail”. Macron would maintain a “tight dialogue with Ukraine and its international partners to work for a return to a fair and lasting peace”.

Zelensky said he and Macron, in the “detailed one-on-one discussion”, reviewed the enhancement of air defense capabilities. He thanked France for its preparation of a Ukrainian brigade for service, and for agreement on training and equipping of another.

NATO Head Pushes Back Over Troops

Zelensky said air defense was also a leading topic in his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

But Rutte implicitly pushed back on the Zelensky-Macron discussion. He said European leaders played into the hands of Vladimir Putin by talking publicly about when negotiations might begin and whether European peacekeepers would be involved.

[The focus must be] to do everything now to make sure that when it comes to air defense, when it comes to other weapons systems, that we make sure that we provide whatever we can….

I think we would be very wise to put some lid on this and focus on the business at hand, and the business at hand is to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevent Putin from winning.

Asked how Britain would respond if Zelensky asked for British troops to be sent to Ukraine, UK Foreign Minister David Lammy side-stepped the question and echoed Rutte:

The discussion is about equipping Ukraine for the days ahead. That is why we meet at this very somber moment to ensure that Ukraine gets through the winter and gets into 2025.

I know there’s lots of speculation, but the truth is Putin is not a man that you can negotiate with when he is causing such mayhem on European soil at this moment in time.

A European Union diplomat summarized, “There are no preparations on [troops]. There is no structured discussion in the EU on this yet.”

EU’s Kallas: What is the Security Guarantee to Ukraine?

In an interview with the Financial Times, the EU’s foreign policy head Kaja Kallas Kallas challenged colleagues rejecting measures such as troop provision. She said they should set out concrete steps backing Ukraine against Russia’s 33 1/2-month invasion.

The big question is, what is the security guarantee?… What actually is it, that is tangible?

If it is not troops, if it is not long-range weapons, what is it actually that protects you and defends you when somebody is attacking you?

All the [EU] member states who have signed security guarantee agreements with Ukraine need to answer: what are they? I mean, in reality, really what are they willing to put on the table that means these security guarantees would not be empty?

Kallas also called for a halt to suggestions of “peace talks”.

There’s no point pushing Zelensky to talk when Putin doesn’t want to talk. We can’t talk about peacekeepers when there’s no peace. And why is there no peace? Because Russia does not want peace.

She pushed back against Donald Trump and his threat to cut aid to Kyiv: “Supporting Ukraine now is much cheaper than enduring the war later. Russia hasn’t changed their goals. I mean, we need to be very honest with ourselves in this regard. What are we really doing right now?”