Destruction from missile debris after Russian strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine, December 20, 2024

Friday’s Coverage: Zelensky to EU — “Europe Needs A Clear Position”

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1159 GMT:

Two Russian guided bombs have heavily damaged an oncology center in Kherson city in southern Ukraine.

There were no casualties, as staff and patients were in the medical facility’s shelter.

“This is yet another act of terror aimed at civilians. Russia is once again demonstrating its essence as an aggressor country that deliberately destroys everything important for life,” said Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson regional administration.

UPDATE 1157 GMT:

Footage of a Ukrainian drone strike on a skyscraper deep inside Russia:

Eight drones reportedly attacked the city in the morning, with five of them hitting residential buildings across three districts.

Four of the eight drones crashed into two high-rise residential buildings and one into a low-rise residential building.

The airports of both Kazan and the neighboring city of Izhevsk suspended flights.

UPDATE 1139 GMT:

Writing for the Carnegie Endowment, Alexandra Prokopenko analyzes the state of Russia’s economy — past, present, and future.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy has repeatedly defied expectations. Predictions of a double-digit contraction never materialized. On the contrary, GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023 and an expected 4% in 2024: rates that both developed and developing nations might envy. Key indicators like GDP growth, household income, and low unemployment have become President Vladimir Putin’s trump cards….

Yet this image of resilience is deceptive. Over the past two years, Russia’s economy has operated like a marathoner on fiscal steroids—and now those steroids are wearing off. Growth is slowing, key sectors are cooling, and the arguments underpinning Putin’s claims of economic “invulnerability” are unraveling. The Kremlin faces the mounting challenge of sustaining the war effort and funding social and infrastructure programs. Simultaneously maintaining low inflation and a stable ruble is proving increasingly unsustainable. Without significant course corrections, the current momentum may falter within a year. By 2026–2027, the fiscal and social challenges now on the horizon could fully metastasize into a crisis.

UPDATE 0830 GMT:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has furiously objected to the use of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine.

At the European Union summit in Brussels this week, Polish President Andrzej Duda called for the spending of the €260 billion in Russian sovereign assets held by European financial institutions.

The US, UK, and Baltic States have also promoted the step, while Germany, France, and Italy have opposed it.

Scholz yelled at Duda, according to “three people briefed on the discussions”, “You don’t understand how this would affect the stability of our financial markets. You don’t even use the euro!”

UPDATE 0701 GMT:

Three women and a 12-year-old boy have been injured in a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia city in southern Ukraine.

A 9-story apartment building was damaged.

A 12-year-old chlid was wounded by a Russian drone attack on a residential building in Kharkiv city in northeast Ukraine.

On Friday, two people were killed and 11 wounded in Russian attacks on the Kherson region in southern Ukraine. One civilian was slain and eight injured in the Donetsk region in the east.

The UN has officially documented at least 12,340 civilian fatalities and at least 27,836 injured during the Russian invasion.

Izumi Nakamitsu, Undersecretary-General for Disarmament Affairs, gave the update to the UN Security Council on Friday.

She said around 42% of casualties in November were from Russia’s use of long-range weapons, a significant increase from previous months.

UPDATE 0656 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has commented on Russia’s missile strikes which killed one person and wounded 12 in Kyiv on Friday.

The attack also damaged residential building, St. Nicholas Cathedral, and six embassies.

This kind of Russian madness must not be perceived by the world as something routine. Daily terror demands constantly increasing pressure on the terrorist.

Russia must be held accountable, and even if it is led by a completely inadequate person, the Russian state must, through pressure, come to understand what reality is and how that reality can punish international criminals. Stronger sanctions against Russia are needed.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The International Monetary Fund has approved another $1.1 billion for Ukraine.

The latest support is part of the Extended Fund Facility which can provide Kyiv with $15.6 billion in budget support over four years. The IMF has now disbursed $9.8 billion.

The IMF’s Executive Board approved the $1.1 billion after completing its sixth review of the EFF agreement.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a statement:

Russia’s war continues to take a devastating social and economic toll on Ukraine.

Despite the war, macroeconomic stability is being preserved through skillful policymaking by the Ukrainian authorities as well as substantial external support….The financial sector remains stable, but vigilance is needed given heightened risks.

The IMF said Ukraine showed “better than expected resilience” to Russia’s attacks on the energy sector, leading to greater economic growth in 2024 than previously forecast. However, the agency predicts an economic slowdown in 2025 because of the assault on infrastructure, pressures on the labor market, rising inflation, and the uncertainties of war.

Kyiv received $42.5 billion in foreign aid in the past year. The Finance Ministry says the amount needs to increase by at least $12 billion in 2025.