Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US counterpart Joe Biden at the NATO Summit, Washington, D.C., July 11, 2024
Wednesday’s Coverage: Russia’s Strikes on Christmas
Map: Institute for the Study of War
UPDATE 1612 GMT:
The Azerbaijan Airlines flight that crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 people, was downed by a Russian air defense system, say “four sources with knowledge of the preliminary investigation“.
The Embraer passenger jet crashed near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan after diverting from Chechnya in Russia, where Moscow has used air defense systems against Ukrainian drone strikes.
Claimed images of the stricken jet showed shrapnel holes in the tail section.
One of the Azerbaijani sources said the preliminary results showed the plane, with 62 passengers and five crew, was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system. Its communications were paralyzed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Chechnya’s Grozny.
Flightradar24, a flight tracking service, confirmed that the Embraer 190 jet had been subjected to radar jamming and spoofing near Grozny, and for part of its journey did not send radar information. It said the available data indicated the plane had problems with altitude control.
“No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft,” the source said.
A US official echoed the assessment.
Russia’s aviation regulator had maintained that the emergency may have been caused by a bird strike. Officials did not explain why the jet crossed the Caspian Sea for Kazakhstan.
The Kremlin, asked before the multiple sources, said an investigation was ongoing. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov asserted, “It is wrong to build hypotheses before the conclusions of the investigation.”
UPDATE 1330 GMT:
The Ukraine Air Force struck a plant in southwest Russia that produces solid propellant for ballistic missiles, says Kyiv’s Center for Strategic Communications.
The complex in Kamensk-Shakhtynsky in the Rostov region contributed to missiles used to attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, including hospitals, residential buildings, and power plants.
“This strike is part of a comprehensive campaign to weaken the capabilities of the Russian armed forces to carry out terrorist attacks against Ukrainian civilians,” Stratcom said.
UPDATE 1321 GMT:
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has criticized Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán for praising Vladimir Putin amid Russia’s strikes on Ukraine over Christmas.
On Christmas Eve, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukrainian cities. At the same time, in a Christmas interview, Prime Minister Orban called Putin an honest partner of the Hungarians.
UPDATE 1605 GMT:
The Estonian Government has held an extraordinary meeting over the disruption of a Baltic Sea cable carrying electricity from Finland.
The Estlink-2 power cable went down just after noon on Wednesday. Prime Minister Kristen Michal posted:
Despite holidays, many people in Estonia and Finland have been working for the last two days to identify the problem for the Estlink-2 disconnection.
My government will hold an extraordinary meeting this afternoon.
We are in close contact with our Nordic-Baltic colleagues.
— Kristen Michal (@KristenMichalPM) December 26, 2024
Michal subsequently thanked Finnish counterpart Petteri Orpo: “We managed to act decisively and stop the suspected vessel for further investigation.”
Finnish authorities said they are investigating the oil tanker Eagle 5, which sailed from a Russian port, for the “aggravated” sabotage of the Estlink 2 cable.
The Eagle S, flying under the flag of the Cook Islands, is bound for Port Said in Egypt and still located in the Gulf of Finland.
Sami Rakshit of Finnish Customs said, “The assumption at the moment is that it is a shadow fleet vessel and the cargo was unleaded petrol loaded in a Russian port.”
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo summarized, “We monitored the situation closely yesterday. The risks posed by the Russian shadow fleet must be ruled out.”
Last month two data cables – one running between Finland and Germany and the other between Lithuania and Sweden – were cut in November. The Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 is suspected of dragging its anchor across the cables.
UPDATE 1125 GMT:
Air defenses downed 20 of 31 attack drones launched by Russia overnight. The other 11, all decoy drones, were lost to electronic counter-measures.
Eight civilians were injured when drone debris fell on the central market in Nikopol in south-central Ukraine.
Seven were hospitalized after the strike damaged multiple stalls.
UPDATE 1009 GMT:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has rejected any ceasefire for negotiations to end Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking with Russian State TV, Lavrov said, “The ceasefire will not suit us. A ceasefire is a road to nowhere. We need credible legally binding agreements that aim to address the main causes of the conflict.”
He claimed any halt to Russia’s attacks would allow Kyiv to accumulate forces so that it can then “try again to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, following the instructions of its masters”.
Lavrov added that Donald Trump’s return to the White House does not alter the position: “We have never made statements that, with the arrival of the Trump Administration, there will necessarily be a negotiation process on global security, on Ukraine.”
Lavrov said in an interview with the 60 Minutes program on the Rossiya 1 TV channel that "Moscow has no illusions about an easy resolution of the Ukrainian crisis".
Lavrov stated that:
◾️ The truce will allow Kyiv to accumulate forces so that it can then "try again to inflict… pic.twitter.com/lQmn1yFexD
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 26, 2024
UPDATE 0958 GMT:
Ukrainians sing Christmas carols at a metro station in Kyiv:
Ukrainians sing Christmas carols at Kyiv's metro station to revive tradition and raise funds for the army.
Ukrainian Christmas caroling is known as koliadky, when groups, often consisting of children and young adults, go from house to house singing carols that celebrate the… pic.twitter.com/krmPRtPB2D
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) December 25, 2024
ORIGINAL ENTRY: President Joe Biden has ordered a surge of US military aid to Ukraine before he leaves office on January 20.
Biden condemned Russia’s Christmas Day missile and drone attacks: “The purpose of this outrageous attack was to cut off the Ukrainian people’s access to heat and electricity during winter and to jeopardize the safety of its grid.”
On Wednesday, Ukraine’s air defenses downed 59 missiles and 54 drones. Another 52 UAVs were lost to electronic counter-measures.
However, the strikes caused serious damage to equipment of thermal plants operated by Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK. Half a million people in the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine are without heating in temperatures a few degrees Celsius above zero. There were blackouts in the capital Kyiv and other cities.
Biden said Washington and the international community should stand by Ukraine until it defeats Russian aggression: “The Ukrainian people deserve to live in peace and security.”
He noted that the US has provided Ukraine with hundreds of air defense missiles “and more are on the way”.
During Russia’s 34-month full-scale invasion, Washington has committed $175 billion in aid for Ukraine.
The Biden Administration still has billions of dollars remaining from last April’s authorization of $60.8 billion in military aid by Congress, passed after a six-month blockade by Trumpists.
Donald Trump returns to the White House next month. In the past, he has threatened to cut American assistance to Kyiv, declaring that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is a “salesman” who takes billions from the US “each time he visits”.
“In tems of what Europe (UK, EU tc.) can do, in light of a drop of support from the US, we can continue to tighten the screws on those who still deem it ok to trade with and do business with Russia, in light of its belligerent agression against Ukraine and tangentally against the rest of us with their hybrid attacks.”
*************
Are EU economies in any condition to continue this economic warfare on Russia? It has been a colossal failure. Russia is economically stronger than it was when it launched the SMO in February 2022, and China and India intend to keep it that way. What do you want the EU members states to do? Drive themselves into a depression? Biden’s Russia-breaking project has left hundreds of thousands of people dead and hundreds of millions exhausted. Mr. Vaughan’s “excellent points” are nonsensical and dangerous.
Scott,
I heard you on the radio this morning with Ray Murphy. While it’s interesting to hear the talik of planning, once Trump 2 kicks in on the 20th of January, anything less than a tough stance isn’t acceptable, unless one wants to concede defeat to Russia. Whatever abou Trump/US plans, Europe needs to find it’s own focus on this, because claims of ending the conflict in 24 hours is balderdash. More likely Trump is thinking that some sort of cack handed solution will take Ukraine out of the newscycle so that his electorate can go back to mindless consumerism. It’s as crass and calous as that.
It’s a malaise not peculiar to the States. There is a certain amount of this here too. When you have Roderick O’Groman refering to the Ukranian Crisis you know that the Irish body politique is defaulting to the uaual euphamisms to avoid an adult discusion on things like neutrality and geting rid of the Triple Lock. You know, terms like The Troubles and The Emergency.
In tems of what Europe (UK, EU tc.) can do, in light of a drop of support from the US, we can continue to tighten the screws on those who still deem it ok to trade with and do business with Russia, in light of its belligerent agression against Ukraine and tangentally against the rest of us with their hybrid attacks.
In terms of progress we can look to some of the listings online. I use the following:
https://leave-russia.org
It’s worht filtering this list to country to see how each is fairing. In tems of progress Ireland has done quite well, while others not so well.
We have seen some success, where companines such as Diageo and Unilever eventaully captiupated to public presuere and ceased opperations in Russia, but a lot more needs to be done to sut off the tax revenues from foreign companies feeding the coffers of Russia’s war chest. Many of these companies profess to have well considered ESG policies. I would suggest that by continued opperation in Russia, they are making a mockery of anything in these documents. It’s a veneer of whitewqash and hypochrisy easily exposed.
Despite any of these home truths, I can see many slinking back into opperation in Russia. This in the event that there is a “deal” and enetente cordial with Russia. Trump and Musk seem to be under the illusion that they can form some sort of Troika with Putin, with the intention of carving up Ukraine for it’s resources. By extension they see the rest of the world as their fiefdom to exploit. Thing is, Trump and Musk are clown and likely opent to being played by Putin. In this respect anything they say and do should be subject to nothing less then dersion and ridicule. European leadership needs to be cogniscant of this while engaging in the most diplomatic and polite way possible.
Some links and opinons to consider:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dr-l%C3%A1szl%C3%B3-nagy-4a162513_slavaukraini-standwithukraine-activity-7278322817798963200-uhF8?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
And, an ndictment of the ease with which the public/electorate is easily dsiracted and fatigued by serious matters:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/26/support-for-ukraine-russia-war-yougov-poll-survey
Stephen,
Many thanks for these excellent points. I look forward to going through them in detail.
S.