Vice President Kamala Harris and Maya Rudolph, who impersonates her on Saturday Night Live, New York City, November 2, 2024

UPDATE 1102 GMT:

In a 14-minute interview, I chat with BBC Radio London’s Salma El-Wardany about the significance of almost 80 million early votes and the likelihood that high turnout favors Kamala Harris. I ponder if young women and the issues of women’s rights, including reproductive rights, might be key.

I evaluate both the Harris campaign — “I think they’ve done a pretty good job” — and Trump’s “dark” effort.

And I note why this election is the most important since 1865: “Less than four years ago, one of the candidates in this election refused to accept the transfer of power.”

The problem has been that the US media has often not focused on issues but on spectacle: the soundbite, the tweet, the crazy image of immigrants eating cats and dogs.

Listen to Discussion from 1:11.23

UPDATE 1045 GMT:

EA’s David Dunn speaks with BBC Radio Foyle about the unpredictability of today’s outcome: “It really is on a knife edge.”

He describes Donald Trump’s “same old tropes” v. Kamala Harris’ look to the future: “It’s all about getting the vote out.”

Listen to Discussion from 23:32

UPDATE, NOV 5:

I joined Bloomsberg TV on Tuesday morning to assess Election Day, the prospects for the “positive” campaign of Kamala Harris v. the “dark dystopia” and insults of Donald Trump, and what Trump might do if Harris wins.

I also take a look at the races for the Senate and House.

Watch from 30:16

UPDATE 1442 GMT:

In a 9-minute interview, I speak with Poland’s TVP World about how the US election’s outcome will affect Ukraine and Central Europe.

I contrast Kamala Harris’s continuation of Biden Administration policy with Donald Trump’s likely support of his friend Vladimir Putin, abandoning Ukraine, Poland, and other countries to Russian ambitions.

Trump does not see any benefit from cooperation with allies. He simply sees a transactional relationship.

For him, if the US makes a contribution to an alliance, it’s losing.

I also consider whether Polish Americans — with 100,000s in each of the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — could be decisive for either Harris or Trump.

UPDATE 1356 GMT:

I spoke on Monday morning with Dublin NewsTalk’s Ciara Kelly about the key issues and voting blocs in the 24 hours before Election Day.

Listen from 3:15:

In 2016 the Democrats lost the election not because Trump surged, but because they didn’t turn out voters. In 2020 they won because you had the highest turnout in US history since 1900.

If turnout this year matches or exceeds 2020, then I think that makes the Democrats a slight favorite.

I also call out Trump’s likely reaction if he loses. trying to overturn the election:

We need to be prepared for this, both in the US and in Ireland.

He’s going to go all the way. First of all, he’ll never accept that he has lost.

But remember this: Donald Trump is already a convicted felon. If he loses, he faces sentencing and he faces the resumption of other felony cases.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, NOV 3: I spoke with a series of Irish and UK outlets on Sunday about Vice President Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and what is at stake in Tuesday’s US Presidential election.

I survey the state of the “toss-up” race, including in the seven swing states. I note a surprising survey putting Democratic nominee Harris up 3% in Iowa, which had been considered safe for Trump.

I go beyond polls to look at the critical issues, including Trump’s threat to democracy and the US system. And I consider how far Trump will go to overturn the election if he is defeated.

Watch Times Radio

Speaking with Theo Usherwood, I juxtapose Harris’ emphasis on the positive and even joyful in politics — including a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live — with Trump’s dark, disfunctional speeches at his rallies.

I take apart the US media’s narratives to set out the reality of the toss-up race, why the scale of early voting may be a good sign for Harris, and how “women’s rights could be the key to Kamala Harris getting into the White House”.

I make an appeal:

America has been a politically damaged country this century, with a series of shocks since 9-11.

One of the two candidates in this race exploited that damage. He brought the US to breaking point in January 2021 when he effectively tried to overthrow the system by blocking the transfer of power. He is a convicted felon, trying to tear down the judicial system to protect himself.

My hope is that, despite the loud spectacle of that candidate on the Trumpist side, there are enough good people that we can get back to dialogue rather than division, to cooperation rather than social media confrontation.

Watch Sky News

An extract from my 10-minute interview with Wilfred Frost:

"America has always been a contest of issues versus spectacle. On one side, that spectacle has become very dark."

Professor of US and International Politics Scott Lucas hopes American politics can return to 'decency' after the US election. https://t.co/PAiZ4D1jU3

Sky 501 pic.twitter.com/K25lj8s3iJ

— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 3, 2024

Listen to Anton Savage Show on Dublin NewsTalk

I evaluate the significance of the Iowa poll and its finding that the key variable is the women’s vote.

I consider the importance of Hispanic voters, particularly those of Puerto Rican descent in light of the racism at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally.

I call out Elon Musk’s pernicious role in support of Trump, and summarize Trump’s response if he loses.

If his supporters go on the street and if they decide to be violent, will Trump denounce that or will he call them “patriots”, as he did with those who attacked the Capitol almost four years ago?

Listen to BBC 5 Live from 39:32

I chat with Felicity Hannah about the “multiple variables” within the swing states: “A shift in any one of them, if this election comes down to 10,000s of votes, could make a difference.”

I evaluate the significance of early voting, with almost 74 million votes — 44% of the total ballot in 2020 — cast, and note how higher turnout is likely to favor Harris and running mate Tim Walz.

I explain the importance of the gender, as most women favor Harris and most men prefer Trump, with “reproductive rights, including abortion issues, perhaps being the key issue for voters this year”.

And I knock back Trump’s disinformation about immigration to set out the facts about the issue.

Asked “Has this been a normal election?”, I reply:

Trump’s advantage is to turn this into a circus where he’s the ringmaster.

But if Kamala Harris wins, do we have another abnormal and indeed dangerous period in US history where Donald Trump — as he did four years ago — tries to overturn the elction?

Vickie Veitch on November 6, 2024 at 16:10

Dear Scott, a short time ago, Trump was announced as the next US President elect. I just saw you interviewed on the ABC (Australian) news and I felt like you were the only awake person making any sense! You spoke of how abnormal this whole thing is and has been. How Trump mislead voters with slogans instead of discussing his policies. How the media failed to hold him or Vance to account when they made fraudulent claims. How this was a failure of American democratic and judicial processes. A convicted criminal has just blatantly lied his way to the White House and everyone just seems to accept this without question! As a public servant of many years, (and a woman of Greek descent), I find it incredible that one of the greatest democracies ever, isn’t doing or saying anything about the glaring obvious! How can an election outcome, based on gross deceit, be seen or permitted as fair and legitimate? Why is no one holding him to account for the excruciating campaign of deliberate disinformation that he and MAGA unleashed upon the populace? In Australia we have the Australian Electoral Commission overseeing voting procedures. Of course, we have never seen this level of unchecked fraud on our own shores before, but when we see it in other oppressed countries, we rightly see our leaders speak up and act! As I witness the polite ‘congratulations’ and messages of ‘we look forward to working with you and your administration’ roll in from, not only our own Australian leaders, but also from democratic leaders globally, I’m sickened that none of them have spoken up or questioned the fairness of the process by which this election has been run and won. Why isn’t any leader courageous enough to call out what everyone is thinking? What everyone has observed? Trump and his loyal MAGA followers have won on the back of a dirty campaign.
And what could be done? I have no expertise in this area but I wouldn’t just accept a fraudulent defeat. I’d be asking for an investigation into the extent and impact of the disinformation that was publicly communicated by Trump, Vance and their campaign. Such a finding would surely have serious consequences for them and the result. Surely it would require, at a minimum, that the electorate be informed of the likely impact, with the potential for a re-vote to be carried out. Yes, it’s that serious because truth still matters for bloody good reasons. Such a finding should also require the Republican Party to pay for additional costs, as well as other appropriate consequences. Otherwise, what’s to stop future candidates anywhere from lying their way to the top? What does this teach everyone and anyone? That you can freely deceive your way to victory or success – no matter how important the role? Do we accept doctors lying their way to top positions? Do we accept crooked judges submitting false resumes? Do we accept pilots faking their qualifications to fly our commercial aeroplanes? This foul erosion of democracy, and of the great democratic principles that my clever ancestors gifted to the world, makes me feel utterly morose. Why aren’t our global leaders defending hard won democratic principles, like electoral integrity and procedural fairness? You even said that there’s nothing in the US constitution preventing an elected President from running the country from Prison! It’s absurd that a man awaiting sentencing can even run for the most powerful position in the world. It affects us all, our alliances and our own hard won freedoms. Are we so politically correct that we can’t call out what’s happening in the US for fear of ‘interfering in another country’s sovereignty’? Australians and British have fought and died beside Americans. The US has give the world joy and technological advances – all those movies, the internet, smart phones, the shared ideals that citizens can get ahead with hard work, charity and opportunity. Just as the US speaks up for its global friends, surely we can expect our leaders to speak up for our most valued cousins, especially when they are in trouble ‘from within’. Surely this danger warrants outrage, condemnation and uncomfortable conversations among our world leaders.We can’t say this is the most consequential election without responding to its most feared consequence! As any good friend does, we speak out against bullies who take advantage or harm others. What happened to, ‘Truth,, justice and the American way’? I do wonder if Harris and Walz chose to postpone addressing the American people (until the morning) so that they could consider their legitimate options relating to the outcome. What an irony that would be – Harris legitimately challenging the fairness of the election outcome, when we all know that Trump falsely claimed election fraud last time. I’d be interested in your further thoughts on all this.

2 Comments

Vickie Veitch on November 6, 2024 at 16:10

Dear Scott, a short time ago, Trump was announced as the next US President elect. I just saw you interviewed on the ABC (Australian) news and I felt like you were the only awake person making any sense! You spoke of how abnormal this whole thing is and has been. How Trump mislead voters with slogans instead of discussing his policies. How the media failed to hold him or Vance to account when they made fraudulent claims. How this was a failure of American democratic and judicial processes. A convicted criminal has just blatantly lied his way to the White House and everyone just seems to accept this without question! As a public servant of many years, (and a woman of Greek descent), I find it incredible that one of the greatest democracies ever, isn’t doing or saying anything about the glaring obvious! How can an election outcome, based on gross deceit, be seen or permitted as fair and legitimate? Why is no one holding him to account for the excruciating campaign of deliberate disinformation that he and MAGA unleashed upon the populace? In Australia we have the Australian Electoral Commission overseeing voting procedures. Of course, we have never seen this level of unchecked fraud on our own shores before, but when we see it in other oppressed countries, we rightly see our leaders speak up and act! As I witness the polite ‘congratulations’ and messages of ‘we look forward to working with you and your administration’ roll in from, not only our own Australian leaders, but also from democratic leaders globally, I’m sickened that none of them have spoken up or questioned the fairness of the process by which this election has been run and won. Why isn’t any leader courageous enough to call out what everyone is thinking? What everyone has observed? Trump and his loyal MAGA followers have won on the back of a dirty campaign.
And what could be done? I have no expertise in this area but I wouldn’t just accept a fraudulent defeat. I’d be asking for an investigation into the extent and impact of the disinformation that was publicly communicated by Trump, Vance and their campaign. Such a finding would surely have serious consequences for them and the result. Surely it would require, at a minimum, that the electorate be informed of the likely impact, with the potential for a re-vote to be carried out. Yes, it’s that serious because truth still matters for bloody good reasons. Such a finding should also require the Republican Party to pay for additional costs, as well as other appropriate consequences. Otherwise, what’s to stop future candidates anywhere from lying their way to the top? What does this teach everyone and anyone? That you can freely deceive your way to victory or success – no matter how important the role? Do we accept doctors lying their way to top positions? Do we accept crooked judges submitting false resumes? Do we accept pilots faking their qualifications to fly our commercial aeroplanes? This foul erosion of democracy, and of the great democratic principles that my clever ancestors gifted to the world, makes me feel utterly morose. Why aren’t our global leaders defending hard won democratic principles, like electoral integrity and procedural fairness? You even said that there’s nothing in the US constitution preventing an elected President from running the country from Prison! It’s absurd that a man awaiting sentencing can even run for the most powerful position in the world. It affects us all, our alliances and our own hard won freedoms. Are we so politically correct that we can’t call out what’s happening in the US for fear of ‘interfering in another country’s sovereignty’? Australians and British have fought and died beside Americans. The US has give the world joy and technological advances – all those movies, the internet, smart phones, the shared ideals that citizens can get ahead with hard work, charity and opportunity. Just as the US speaks up for its global friends, surely we can expect our leaders to speak up for our most valued cousins, especially when they are in trouble ‘from within’. Surely this danger warrants outrage, condemnation and uncomfortable conversations among our world leaders.We can’t say this is the most consequential election without responding to its most feared consequence! As any good friend does, we speak out against bullies who take advantage or harm others. What happened to, ‘Truth,, justice and the American way’? I do wonder if Harris and Walz chose to postpone addressing the American people (until the morning) so that they could consider their legitimate options relating to the outcome. What an irony that would be – Harris legitimately challenging the fairness of the election outcome, when we all know that Trump falsely claimed election fraud last time. I’d be interested in your further thoughts on all this.
- Scott Lucas on November 7, 2024 at 07:17
  
  Vickie,
  
  Thank you so much for these passionate and thoughtful comments. I am still working through my thoughts, but will post some of the interviews I had yesterday and the two articles that I am writing for Irish outlets.
  
  Given the fundamental of a healthy democracy and vital system, I believe that the outcome of a legitimate election must be accepted. Now is the time to regroup, to reconnect, and to — stealing Trump’s phrase — “fight like hell” for all that is decent and just.
  
  Best,
  
  S.

EA on International Media: US Election 2024 —- It’s Decision Time