Donald Trump with Ireland’s Taioseach Leo Varadkar in the White House, Washington D.C., March 15, 2018

Co-published with the Irish Examiner:

EA on UK and Irish Outlets: Trump’s Cabinet Picks — Hardliners, Grifters, and Craziness

Trump Is Back. So Saddle Up, Folks. It’s Time to Save a Country.

UPDATE, NOV. 22:

I join The Irish Times’ John Mooney on his podcast The Dark State for a 50-minute exploration of the threat posted by Donald Trump to the security of Ireland, Europe, and the international community.

Shadows of Power by The Dark State

Ireland’s Security Risks in the Trump Era

Read on Substack

ORIGINAL ENTRY, NOV. 15: From the rubble of Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election rose a question for many in Ireland.

Given the turmoil of Trump’s first term — culminating in deadly negligence over a pandemic, mass marches for civil rights, and even a coup attempt — what will a second one bring?

Former Taioseach Bertie Ahern tried to reassure, “He never does what he says. Most of it is just bluster.”

The current Attorney General Rossa Fanning, chairing a debate on UCD on whether “Western Democracy Is Dying”, chided those who are “overreacting”. Every incumbent Government in the world up for election this year has been defeated, he explained, so a Trump triumph over the Biden Administration was nothing out of the normal.

Perhaps these wise political and legal heads were protecting Ireland’s position. Trump does not take kindly to criticism, especially from partners, and so best to gloss over any unpleasant realities.

Perhaps they assessed that potential damage can be mitigated or even avoided — as in the first Trump term — through Irish diplomacy, Trump’s inability to plan effectively, and a bit of luck.

Ahern emphasised that he would already be talking to Trump advisors “if I was in the position where I used to be”.

So let’s be clear. This is not an over-reaction or a partisan swipe: Donald Trump’s threat to Ireland is real.

Economic Shock Waves

For many analysts, the starting point is the US-owned multinationals who employ about 11% of Irish workers and contribute to funding of public services through corporate taxes — around one in every eight euros of Irish tax revenue. Receipts have risen from €4.6 billion in 2014 to €30 billion this year.

Trump’s proposal to cut corporation taxes might not be enough to take those multinationals back to the US from Ireland, given the years of capital and resource they have invested here. But Trump has raised the stakes, threatening that the tax cuts will only be given to those firms who relocate in America.

Professor Aidan Regan of University College Dublin warns, “If just one of those multinationals decide they’re going to locate the IP [intellectual property] back in the US, that could effectively rupture the health budget in Ireland.”

The pharmaceutical sector, which accounted for 55% of Irish exports in 2022, faces disruption as Trump has named Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — conspiracy theorist and denier of both Coronavirus and the vaccines which checked it — the US Health Secretary.

At least one analyst is grabbing at the silver lining that Trump’s return might prompt the Irish Government to invest in the domestic tech sector rather than relying on the big foreign players.

But even in the best-case scenario, there are Trump’s tariff thought bubbles. On any given day in the campaign, he could promise a global charge of 10%. Or 15%. Or 20%. Or in one comment on foreign automobiles, 20,000%.

The tariffs might never come to fruition, or Trump’s staff might focus primarily on China. But the mere prospect of them brings uncertainty and instability — and Irish and international markets do not thrive on either of those.

That instability is magnified by the Trump camp’s plan to take control of US agencies, bending them to their leader’s will. Not only could they pursue a Treasury which will accept the projected $15 trillion cost of Trump’s general proposals. In the Project 2025 blueprint, they seek to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, co-opting it or setting up an alternative body. That would throw monetary policy, including the setting of interest rates, into the political winds.

Global Insecurity

Trump’s immediate threat in Europe is to the independence of Ukraine as it resists Russia’s 32 1/2-month full invasion. He and his Vice Presidential running J.D. Vance have pointed to a cutoff of US aid, smearing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: “Every time he comes to the United States, he walks away with $100 billion.”

Trump’s empty declaration that he could “end the war within 24 hours” is filled by his repetition of the Kremlin’s line on “peace talks”. That line includes an acceptance, if not international recognition, of Russia’s “annexation” of more than 25% of Ukraine and a guarantee that Kyiv cannot join NATO or the European Union.

Trump may not try to pull the US out of NATO, as he threatened to do — in a meeting including Phil Hogan, Ireland’s European Commissioner for Trade” — in 2020. But at the least, he could hinder the American role in the bloc, through the executive authority or just the power of a disruptive tweet.

And for those who maintain that Ireland can remain detached over European security, there is still the Trumpist design to disrupt or even break up the European Union.

In Trump’s first term, that project was undermined by chaotic planning and the downfall of Steve Bannon, the chief strategist forced out of the White House in August 2017. Still, the Trump camp was able to play a significant if unrecognized role in the replacement of UK Prime Minister Theresa May by Boris Johnson, advancing Brexit’s destructive mission.

Bannon has recently finished a four-month prison sentence. If he avoids another for his role in a $25 million fraud over the Wall with Mexico, he could be an influential advisor. And there are others in Trump’s orbit, such as former Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, who may join him.

The Damage to Political Culture

Then there is the intangible but real effect of Trump’s damage of political culture.

Trump’s actions have set the precedent that a felon, fraudster, sexual abuser, and alleged coup plotter can return to power. But his rhetoric may be even more significant for Ireland.

Trump’s years of insults and lies have made the demeaning and pejorative acceptable in US political culture. Aggression is a virture to be emulated. Hispanics, Blacks, women, the LGBT community can be denigrated even as their votes are courted. And immigrants, refugees, and asylum seekers can be demonized as “criminals” and “terrorists” taking money that should go to “real” Americans.

Trump has partnered with TV networks, podcasters, and social media platforms such as Elon Musk’s X. So while he assails the “mainstream” media, it is his corrosive language which is the mainstream.

Ireland does not yet have a hard-right political party or national broadcasting outlet. But it is not insulated from the social-media toxic swamp. So amid the country’s issues with infrastructure, agitators can emulate Trump. They can feed from his victory to portray those seeking shelter here as the enemy.

On Monday, Simon Harris had his first phone call with President-elect Trump. The Taioseach’s office dutifully issued a summary, “They reflected on the strong and enduring ties between Ireland and the United States and said they hoped to meet soon.”

Even as the staff posted that readout, they knew the challenge for Ireland in its deception. Trump does not believe in strong and enduring ties between the US and anyone. He believes in immediate gratification of his ego and display of power.

And in that fragile ego and narcissist display, there is no consistency for economy, security, or society — in the US or here.