Donald Trump with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the UN, September 18, 2017
EA on RTE: Lessons from US Election as Ireland Prepares to Vote
Trump Is Back. So Saddle Up, Folks. It’s Time to Save a Country.
I joined India’s WION on Monday for a 7-minute discussion about the effect of Donald Trump’s election as US President on Israel’s mass killing in Gaza, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the world in general.
U.S. President-elect #DonaldTrump will not take office for the next two months but he is already shaping U.S. policy in two major hotspots that is Ukraine and Israel. @SehgalRahesha joined by @ScottLucas_EA, International Affairs Analyst, for perspective. pic.twitter.com/X8TFhX68w8
— WION (@WIONews) November 11, 2024
I begin with an overall assessment:
The Trump foreign policy is likely to bring chaos and uncertainty.
Donald Trump doesn’t play by the ordinary rules of diplomacy and politics. His belief is in what makes Donald Trump look good.
You are going to see a series of countries trying to flatter him, playing to his ego, trying not to upset him. This will not be about American interests, it will be about Trump.
Turning to specific cases, I emphasize that we need to cut through Trump’s meaningless spin that he “will end wars within 24 hours”.
I explain how Trump is likely to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a blank check for expanded attacks on Gaza, and to enable Russia’s Vladimir Putin to occupy more than 25% of Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
OK, this picks is weird: Trump Picks Pete Hegseth, a Veteran and Fox News Host, for Defense Secretary: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/us/politics/pete-hegseth-defense-secretary-trump.html
Hegseth has made many rants about completely destroying Iran: https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-host-pete-hegseth-tells-trump-to-bomb-iranian-homeland-2020-1
Sean Hannity could be selected for Press secretary. Interesting times.
[Editor’s Note: The issue was never that “Trump’s diplomatic efforts” were not “allowed to succeed” with North Korea’s Kim. The issue was that Trump, for the sake of a photo opportunity, was willing to hand over the political and military initiative to Pyongyang. That would have serious consequences for the region, notably South Korea, and for the world on issues such as North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.]
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It can be argued that the consequences of scuttling the Trump-Kim talks are more serious, now that the DRPK has a security pact with Moscow, which has gifted the DPRK sophisticated weaponry. That has serious consequences for the region. The opportunity was there and could have been skillfully handled by a competent corp. of diplomats.
[Editor’s Note: The issue was never that “Trump’s diplomatic efforts” were not “allowed to succeed” with North Korea’s Kim. The issue was that Trump, for the sake of a photo opportunity, was willing to hand over the political and military initiative to Pyongyang. That would have serious consequences for the region, notably South Korea, and for the world on issues such as North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.]
Professor Lucas’s assessment of Trump’s approach to foreign policy may be pertinent to his first term, but we might see something very different in his second term. Many of Trump’s appointees worked against his foreign policy goals/objectives, and that might affect his whole mindset and approach in 2025.. We can recall Trump’s thwarted attempts to improve US-Russia relations and his rapprochement efforts with the DRRK. If Trump’s diplomatic efforts with Kim Jong Un had been allowed to succeed, there might not have been a Russia-DPRK security pact, and consequently, no DPRK troops fighting Ukraine. This is something Professor Lucas might admit, albeit grudgingly.
Iran Debates Whether It Could Make a Deal With Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/world/middleeast/iran-trump-election-deal.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZE4.Jmh_.m2a36U6HeGzA&smid=em-share
“Two competing strategies are being discussed in Iran’s policy circles. One calls for Iran to proceed defiantly and strengthen its proxy militias in the Middle East to deter the United States and Israel. The other calls for negotiating with Mr. Trump, which is gaining traction among some conservatives, largely because they don’t see an alternative for resolving Iran’s economic problems………Iranian officials said that many of Mr. Trump’s stated foreign policy goals — ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, ending the war in Ukraine and an “America First” agenda — appeal to Iran.”
What does Trump’s decision not to bring Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley into his administration say about the kind of foreign policy he wishes to pursue? John Bolton and Liz Chaney’s views are inline with theirs, and they’re among Trump’s foreign affairs critics. We’ve also heard Elon Musk’s criticisms of the war merchants, for lack of a better term; and it has been reported that he and Trump spoke jointly with Zelenskey by phone.