Donald Trump at his golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland (File)
Yes, Donald Trump Is A Threat to Ireland’s Security
A “perverse spectacle”: that is how Scott Lucas described Donald Trump’s campaign last month.
But now that Trump has won the vote, we have to go farther. This is more than a political show raising eyebrows and making jaws drop. Ireland is at risk.
Trump’s “America First” policies threaten the nearly €1 trillion in trade and investment between the US and Ireland. His political and economic thought bubbles, if implemented, would threaten Dublin’s diplomatic and security interests, jarring Ireland’s position as a crucial link to Europe.
The Threat to Ireland’s Economy
With €491 billion in foreign direct investment, US companies make a vital contribution to Irish Government revenues and employ at least 7% of the Irish workforce.
Trump has proposed tariffs of 10 to 20% on goods from overseas. He is pledging both incentives and punishment to bring American companies back to the US. A cut in the US corporate tax to 15% would reinforce that promise.
The technology sector, where US firms contributed €24 billion in corporation tax to the Irish Government last year. could be especially affected. Trump has complained about rulings by European courts — particularly the order for Apple to pay €13 billion in unpaid taxes, which he has declared he will reverse without explaining how.
Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, Minister of State for the EU and Defense, summarizes, “We will watch the outcome very carefully for its impact on tax and trade….There’s a lot at stake, and it’s important.”
Trump could also curtail Irish links to the US through travel, study, and work. Having implemented restrictive policies in his first term, Trump could again toughen visa regulations.
Security Concerns and the Northern Ireland Protocol
Ireland’s national security is linked to the US through the Northern Ireland Protocol, the Brexit agreement which ensured a “soft border” between the Republic and Northern Ireland.
In 2019, as the UK Government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to tear up the Protocol, Trump — displaying an ignorance both of decades of tension and of the prospect of renewed violence — proclaimed of the border, “Build a Wall”.
See also Brexit’s Broken Britain and the Northern Ireland Protocol
Trump’s distaste for NATO, with his repeated threats to slash the US contribution, may jeopardize European security. Although Ireland is not a NATO member, it has stepped up its cooperation with the 32-nation bloc, amid Russia’s 33-month invasion on Ukraine and Moscow’s threat in the Irish Sea.
If the US approach towards security changes under Trump, Ireland needs guarantees from Washington that it is still protected by Washington. However, there is no sign that Trump and his inner circle will see this as a priority.
Ireland’s diplomatic position could also be affected by Trump’s policy in the Middle East.
Amid Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza, Ireland has supported a State of Palestine and an unconditional ceasefire. It has criticized the mass killings and humanitarian crisis from Israeli military operations, and more recently Israel’s airstrikes and ground invasion in Lebanon.
Trump is unreserved in his support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In his first term, he moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem and backed Israel’s expansion of settlements in Palestine’s West Bank. He has reportedly told Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” in Gaza and Lebanon. His appointments of pro-Zionists such as Mike Huckabee and Steven Witkoff, respectively US Ambassador to Israel and the special envoy for the Middle East, have reinforced the position.
Affecting Ireland’s Political Culture
While Trump may not have a direct effect on Ireland’s upcoming election, his presence could influence the language and priorities of Irish political discourse. “America First” presents a view of nationalism, economic independence, and international relations which intersects with Irish debates about neutrality, relations with the European Union, and foreign investment.
Politicians could frame their campaigns with an emphasis on economic stability, a pragmatic corporate tax policy, and a responsible response to international developments. But Trump’s invective on issues like immigration may push Irish politicians to frame their policies in opposition or alignment with this rhetoric. His remarks abouut stricter borders, travel bans, and a decrease in visas may indirectly influence politics in the Republic.
Ireland has long been a destination for immigrants, particularly those who are looking for opportunities in technology and other industries fueled by US companies and investments. This country also has a long-standing history of emigration, and many Irish people have relied on US visas for work and holidays.
If Trump’s immigration policies become more restrictive, and if he raises the toxic temperature on social media, Ireland may have to consider how to insulate itself from the pernicious effects.
Sensible and Careful Politics
After his congratulatory phone call with Trump, Ireland’s Taioseach Simon Harris portrayed an unshaken alliance, “With the US and Ireland’s shared commitment to democracy and international law, we can, and will, tackle these challenges.”
Harris added the powerful mythology, 100 years after Washington established diplomatic relations with Dublin, “Ireland and the United States have deep and historical bonds of people, and we
will work to make these even stronger in the years ahead.”
That is sensible politics. Given Trump’s approach of rewarding flatterers and attacking critics, there is no need to provoke antagonism even before he takes office.
But sensible politics should also be careful politics. The Trump Administration will be important for Irish jobs, economic relations, and the future of its businesses. It will affect the future of Ireland’s security and development.
As Ireland prepares for its own election, stability and strength in international relations will be watchwords. But it is a feature of the Trumpian era that the hard work may only begin on January 20, as Donald Trump takes the oath of office on the steps of the Capitol which his supporters invaded only four years earlier.
