A US-made Terminal High-Altitude Air Defense system
I joined India’s WION on Monday to analyze the US supply of a THAAD air defense system to Israel, with the deployment of 95 American troops to operate it, amid tensions over Israeli-Iranian confrontation.
Is the measure purely “defensive” or would it enable Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pursue airstrikes on Iran, alongside his open-ended wars in Gaza and Lebanon?
I try to answer that with a focus the dynamics of the US-Israeli relationship, the internal battle in Israel, the positon of Iran’s leaders, and the latest military operations in Lebanon and Gaza.
How will the deployment of THAAD strengthen Israel’s defenses?
This could escalate tensions in West Asia, as it would mark the first time that US troops will be in combat in Israel.@SehgalRahesha speaks to @ScottLucas_EA, West Asia analyst, for more insights#Israel #US pic.twitter.com/L2SehIedTZ— WION (@WIONews) October 14, 2024
The Biden Administration is taking a big risk. What we have seen in the last few weeks, after the killing of more than 42,000 people in Gaza, is an expansion of the Netanyahu war in Lebanon, the Iranian missile attacks, and the threat of Israeli retaliation.
I think the US keeps believing “we can hold Netanyahu back”, and I’m not sure Netanyahu can be held back.
Iranian mole working for the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency leaks details of Israel’s preparations against |ran: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html
“The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity. The leak is “deeply concerning,” a US official told CNN. The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.”
The Iranian news outlet released them on social media recently: https://twitter.com/Spectator_MENA/status/1847039542475317725
The plans entail using drones and ALBMs (air launched ballistic missiles) stored at Ramat David and Ramon airbases. A key Israeli consideration is the refueling needed to conduct a strike on Iran, My take is that the Iranians are aware of everything included in the leaked documents and have had plenty of time to prepare themselves. One major admission is that the United States is aware that the Israelis possess nuclear weapons which it official claims it does not know anything about.
It comes as Israel has requested a SECOND THAAD missile defense system from the United States which may indicate that their own ARROW system failed recently in defending against Iranian missiles: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-said-to-request-us-send-second-thaad-missile-defense-battery-ahead-of-iran-attack/
The missile barrage from Iran had also caused power outages on the night: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822801
“Damage was caused to electricity infrastructure in parts of southern Israel following a rocket fall in Beersheba, Residents of the moshav of Bnei Atarot reported a power outage in their area following the rocket blast. A team of technicians arrived at the scene to repair the damages caused by the attack.”
Israel data show hundreds of structures damaged in Iran’s attack: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-824486
“The recent missile attack by Iran on Israel caused an estimated 150 billion to 200 billion shekels ($40 million to $53 million) in damage to private property, according to Israel’s tax authority. This makes it the most expensive attack since the beginning of the war a year ago…..Damage to the Israeli Air Force bases of Tel Nof and Nevatim isn’t included in the calculations.”
US intervention points to growing concerns over Israel’s air defences: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/14/attacks-by-hezbollah-and-iran-showed-a-degree-of-israeli-vulnerability-what-now
“Iran’s large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel at the beginning of the month… appears to have been more damaging than was initially acknowledged…. Israel’s tax authority said on Sunday it had received 2,200 damage claims relating to civilian buildings following the 1 October attack, and a further 300 for vehicles and contents, taking the total damage estimate to 150m to 200m shekels (£31m to £41m). In Hod Hasharon, north-east of Tel Aviv, more than 1,000 homes were damaged, some impacted by a shockwave from a missile that smashed into an open area nearby.”
Netanyahu tells U.S. that Israel will strike Iranian military, not nuclear or oil, targets: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/14/israel-iran-strike-nuclear-oil-military/
” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the Biden administration he is willing to strike military rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran, according to two officials familiar with the matter, suggesting a more limited counterstrike aimed at preventing a full-scale war…..Netanyahu was in a “more moderated place” than he had previously been. The apparent softening of the prime minister’s stance factored into Biden’s decision to send a powerful missile defense system to Israel, both officials said……the Israeli military wants to hit Iran’s military leadership, because it doesn’t hurt the people and it doesn’t erupt the region into a larger war.”
“I think the US keeps believing “we can hold Netanyahu back”, and I’m not sure Netanyahu can be held back.”
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Has the US government reached a broad consensus on this? Perhaps there is a powerful faction in the government that thinks Netanyahu should not be held back. Are the Wilsonian Idealists using Israel as their big stick?
[From the same article:
*Professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Martin McKee, said vaccines had been “absolutely essential” to allowing society to move on from the pandemic.
“Once the vaccines became available then the death rate fell markedly,” he said.
Prof McKee said all vaccines came with a risk of reactions and there would be “a small number of reactions” when a large number of people were vaccinated.
While he cannot comment on individual cases, he said reactions like Mr Lowe’s were “exceedingly rare”.*]
Man says he has been ‘left to rot’ after Covid vaccine: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kj1pmr7jdo
“On 15 December 2021 Larry Lowe’s life changed. He was 54, rarely ill, fit, healthy and running 10km most days – until he got the Pfizer Covid booster Within days he developed numbness in the right side of his face and started experiencing pain. “I had lost all the feeling in my face, teeth, nose, tongue, eye, that whole side of my head,” he said. These symptoms have spread through his body and intensified over the years, with doctors across the UK saying the vaccine is to blame.”
This is why Iran was right not to approve the import of untested mRNA vaccines.
The Iranian Connection to Hezbollah’s Pager Explosions
https://iranwire.com/en/politics/135004-the-iranian-connection-to-hezbollahs-pager-explosions/
I agree. There should have been a proper security check. But the explosives were placed in the batteries.
EU sanctions Iran’s flag carrier over missile transfer to Russia
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202410149407
Awaiting response to missile attack, Tehran debates next phase in Israel stand-off: https://www.timesofisrael.com/awaiting-response-to-missile-attack-tehran-debates-next-phase-in-israel-stand-off/?utm_source=article_hpsidebar&utm_medium=desktop_site&utm_campaign=liveblog_entry
“Khamenei adopts his decisions after consulting with members of the Iranian Supreme National Council, which, under the leadership of the reformists of the Iranian government, includes both conservative and reformist officials,” explained Eva Koulouriotis, an independent expert on the region.”