A freed Ukrainian POW embraces his wife, October 18, 2024

Friday’s Coverage: Kyiv in NATO?

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1519 GMT:

Four civilians were killed and at least 20 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine within 24 hours.

The strikes knocked out power to 73,000 consumers in three regions.

Air defenses downed 42 of 100 Iran-type attack drones launched overnight, and 46 were lost because of electronic warfare. Four of six missiles were intercepted.

UPDATE 1327 GMT:

Visiting Kyiv, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot has commented on reports of North Korean troops supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Sending DPRK soldiers to Ukraine will bring the war to a new level and a new scale of escalation. It carries the risk of this war spilling over into Asia,” Barrot said.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said on Friday that Russian warships transferred 1,500 North Korean special operation forces to the port city of Vladivostok between October 8 and 13. The soldiers “are expected to be deployed to the frontlines as soon as they complete their adaptation training”.

Citing anonymous sources, South Korean media said Pyongyang has decided to dispatch to Russia a total of 12,000 troops, formed into four brigades.

Ukraine’s head of military intelligence Kyrill Budanov said on Thursday that almost 11,000 North Korean troops are in Russia and will be “ready to fight” in Ukraine by November 1.

Budanov said the first group of 2,600 soldiers will be deployed to the Kursk region in western Russia, where Ukraine holds territory after a cross-border incursion that began on August 6.

UPDATE 1103 GMT:

Ukraine intelligence claims that a high-ranking Russian military officer, Maj. Dmitry Pervukha, was killed in a car bombing in the center of occupied Luhansk city on Friday.

Pervukha was “chief of staff for the service of troops and security of the military service” in the occupied territories of Ukraine. He was accused by Ukraine of war crimes

UPDATE 0635 GMT:

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans says there are “very different opinions” within NATO over Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s request for an invitation to join.

Presenting the Victory Plan to defeat Russia’s invasion, Zelenskiy set the “immediate invitation” as a priority in meetings with NATO and European leaders as part of a “deterrence package” which “would either force Russia to participate in real peace negotiations, or allow for the destruction of their military targets”.

Brekelmans said NATO members need to agree clear criteria that Ukraine would need to meet for an invitation, as well as others required later to become a member.

“If you don’t have that clarity upfront, I don’t see 32 allies agree to granting an invitation,” he said after a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who met Zelenskiy on Thursday, said he could not commit to a timetable for Ukraine’s accession. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said coolly, “You know Germany’s position on the issues involved. This will not change.”

UPDATE 0610 GMT:

Residents of Pokrovsk are being urged to evacuate as a year-long Russian offensive gradually advances in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

Serhiy Dobrak, head of the military administration, said:

It is already clear that there will be no heating in the city.

I appeal to city residents: if you see dragon’s teeth [anti-tank traps] being installed nearby, do not delay, pack up and leave. It will be dangerous.

Russian forces are within 10 km (6.2 miles) of Pokrovsk, which had a pre-invasion population of around 60,000.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine and Russia exchanged 190 prisoners of war on Friday.

Each side brought home 95 people in an agreement mediated by the UAE.

Among the Ukrainians freed were human rights activists Maksym Butkevych and 34 Azov Regiment soldiers, who defended the port city of Mariupol during Russia’s 12-week bombing, ground assault, and siege from February to May 2022. Other released troops are from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kherson regions.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted video of the reeturning POWs on Twitter:

The Russian Defense Ministry gave no details about its 95 released troops, apart from saying that they would undergo medical checks in Belarus.

Russia also returned the bodies of 501 soldiers to Ukraine, in the largest repatriation of war dead during the 32-month invasion.

A Freed Human Rights Activist

Maksym Butkevych worked with a Ukrainian NGO supporting internally displaced persons, and with the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Ukraine.

Upon Russia’s full invasion in February 2022, the journalists and activist decided to enlist in the Ukrainian military. He was captured in the summer and forced by a Russian-appointed court to plead guilty to firing a grenade launcher at an apartment building.

Russian proxy authorities in the occupied Luhansk and Donetsk regions sentenced Butkevych to 13 years in prison in March 2023. Amnesty International called the proceeding “a grave miscarriage of justice.”

Butkevych’s whereabouts were unknown for long periods of time until he was discovered in a penal colony in Krasnyi Luch in Russian-occupied Luhansk.

The activist said on Friday that he did not know he was going to be released until he was already in transit.

No, I didn’t know, it was unexpected.

Yesterday morning, after the inspection, they told me that I was leaving in half an hour, but they didn’t tell me where. Accordingly, I packed my things because I thought I was being transported, not for an exchange. We found out about the exchange by accident on the way.

Butkevych continued, “I hope this will give hope to others.”

I was released together with a colleague from a colony where more than 40 convicted prisoners of war are held on trumped-up cases. It is very important for them to know that this is possible and that the exchange is taking place.