A protester holds up a portrait of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar outside a campaign event for Democratic Presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris, New York City, August 14, 2024 (David ‘Dee’ Delgado/Reuters)
Co-published with The Conversation:
EA on Pat Kenny Show: Netanyahu’s Open-Ended Wars in Gaza and Lebanon
Israel has announced it has killed Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. Sinwar was apparently killed in a chance encounter on October 16 after a tank unit opened fire on a group of Palestinian men running into a building in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. His body was found in the rubble and later identified as the Hamas leader.
It is an important moment in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Sinwar’s death follows a campaign of assassination of top Hamas leaders by Israel, in the latest round of hostilities after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Middle East analyst Scott Lucas of University College Dublin addresses some of the key issues raised by Sinwar’s killing.
How badly has the killing of Yahya Sinwar hit Hamas’s command structure?
Just over a year after its mass killings inside Israel, overseen by Sinwar, Hamas as an organization is in disarray.
It is not just Thursday’s killing of Sinwar in the chance encounter with Israeli forces. It is the slaying of Mohammed Deif, who planned the October 7 cross-border attacks; the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31; and the killings of other senior officials and military commanders in Gaza and Lebanon.
Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed, 49, will likely take over military command. Veteran figures such as Khaled Meshaal, who led the Political Bureau from 1996 to 2017, remain. But they will struggle to sustain the organization, particularly if the Netanyahu Government presses its military advantage and threat of assassination.
That does not mean that Hamas as a movement is finished. Mass killing, even of its leaders, could galvanize it in the longer-run. Those who survive will move up through the ranks, and the spirit of resistance and resentment could bring in more recruits.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can claim “victory” over Sinwar and Haniyeh and Deif. But victory over Hamas, particularly if Israel pursues an open-ended occupation in Gaza, may not be assured.
What did Sinwar represent as a symbol of Palestinian resistance?
For many in Palestine and beyond, Sinwar will be hailed as a martyr and icon of resistance. He was with Hamas from its first years, spent 22 years in an Israeli prison, and took command in Gaza from 2017. He never wavered in his belief that Hamas would prevail over Israel’s blockade, detentions, and military operations.
But for others, Sinwar may be remembered as a divisive, even cruel figure. He built his career in Hamas upon the killing of supposed “collaborators” with Israel. He was suspected of the torture and execution of rivals. And his leadership of the October 7 mass killings may be recalled as “resistance” which needlessly sacrificed the lives of tens of thousands and displaced almost 2 million of those whom he was supposedly representing.
Does Sinwar’s death clear the way for a younger generation who might be more amenable to negotiating a deal over the release of hostages and a ceasefire?
It will take months, perhaps years before we see where that “younger generation” will take Hamas. In the meantime, the interim political and military command of the battered organization will face their immediate challenge.
Can they still get some return, such as the freeing of Palestinians from Israeli prisons and the continued presence of Hamas in Gaza, in exchange for the release of the hostages? Or do they have to accept capitulation, possible expulsion, and Israeli occupation?
Barring an unexpected change in the US position, putting pressure on Netanyahu, all the cards are in Israel’s hand for now.
What is Israel’s next move?
Ask Netanyahu.
He has the option of proclaiming “Mission Accomplished”. However, that will not be true for many Israelis as long as the hostages are not returned. Without that resolution, Netanyahu will run the risk of early elections and even the resumption of court proceedings over bribery charges if he halts military operations.
The Prime Minister also got out of his immediate predicament with the expansion of the war into Lebanon. That reconciled him with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was privately saying Israel had no “endgame” in Gaza.
So while the Prime Minister may pay lip service to the resumption of ceasefire talks, that will likely be conditioned on the expulsion of Hamas from Gaza. And with no clear alternative for governance in the Strip, that points — as with the West Bank — to indefinite Israeli occupation.
How will Iran respond?
With the decimation of its Hamas and Hezbollah allies, Iran’s regime may have no good options.
Amid economic and political problems at home and outmatched by Israel in military capabilities, the regime has avoided direct confrontation.
Facing Israel’s assassinations of its officials and commanders, Tehran launched around 320 missiles and drones in April in a “demonstration” attack. The Netanyahu Government stepped up military operations in Gaza, assassinated Hamas’s Haniyeh in a Tehran apartment, and killed Hezbolah’s leaders including Nasrallah.
Iran fired 181 ballistic missiles earlier this month. This time, it inflicted damage on the Nevatim military airbase in the Negev desert. But Israel pressed ahead in Lebanon, and has now taken out Sinwar.
Iran could pursue “indirect” war through militias in Iraq and Syria attacking US personnel with rockets and drones, or with Yemen’s Houthis lobbing missiles at Israel and again threatening Red Sea shipping. It could expand cyber-attacks and its own attempted assassinations abroad. But those options would have little immediate effect, and would risk retaliation from the US and further isolation in the international community.
So for now, Iran’s leaders and their spokespeople will take the political route, condemning Israel and proclaiming that the “Axis of Resistance” will be strengthened through its losses.
The US is calling this an opportunity to begin a new chapter. But is Washington going to be able to put pressure on Israel to do a deal with the Palestinians?
This is perhaps the easiest question to answer. Unless the US cuts military aid to Israel and/or comes out for an unconditional ceasefire, it has little if any leverage with Netanyahu.
How does all this play out in the lead-up to the US election? Do either of the candidates benefit and if so, who?
Foreign policy is rarely a priority for most US voters, and even the mass killing of the past 12 1/2 months is unlikely to change that.
However, on the margins of the US Presidential election, the escalating toll in Gaza and Lebanon could alienate Arab American voters from the Democrats in Michigan, one of the seven states that will decide the contest. More broadly, the impression of Netanyahu pushing around a “weak” Biden Administration could take hold.
And in a toss-up election, those margins could be decisive.
