Vladimir Putin speaks with Russian State media, September 12, 2024

Thursday’s Coverage: Blinken — US May Allow Long-Range Strikes Inside Russia

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1623 GMT:

German chancellor Olaf Scholz has again ruled out the supply of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

“Germany has made a clear decision about what we will do and what we will not do. This decision will not change,” Scholz told a press conference.

Scholz’s spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said “the weapons the US and Britain are now discussing” have a longer range than anything supplied by Germany. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said US-UK discussions and any agreement “remain their business”.

In contrast, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa supports Ukraine’s use of the weapons to “prevent and interdict Russia’s continued ability to degrade Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.”

UPDATE 1619 GMT:

Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia has echoed the concern of Vladimir Putin over permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike Russian targets.

Nebenzia said at the Security Council, “The facts are that NATO will be a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power, I think you shouldn’t forget about this and think about the consequences.”

UPDATE 1608 GMT:

In the latest prisoner exchange, 49 Ukrainian service personnel and civilians have been freed by Russia.

UPDATE 1607 GMT:

Two people have been killed and six injured, including a 4-year-old child, by a Russian airstrike on Yampil in the Sumy region in northern Ukraine.

Multi-story buildings and a hospital were damaged and the energy supply disrupted by four bombs about 9 a.m.

The fatalities were a 60-year-old man who was killed while driving his car through the village and a 54-year-old man who died in hospital.

Yampil, with a pre-war population of more than 4,000, lies around 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) from the Russian border.

UPDATE 1554 GMT:

The UK Government has rejected Russia’s claims for the removal of accreditation from six British diplomats (see 0652 GMT).

The accusations made today by the [Russian State security service] FSB against our staff are completely baseless. The Russian authorities revoked the diplomatic accreditation of six UK diplomats in Russia last month, following action taken by the UK Government in response to Russian state-directed activity across Europe and in the UK. We are unapologetic about protecting our national interests.

The Guardian says the British crackdown on Russian espionage was carried out “several months ago”, after the Metropolitan police charged a group of British men with planning an arson attack against Ukrainian-linked businesses on behalf of the Russian state. However, it was only announced in a statement on Friday morning.

UPDATE 1544 GMT:

The European Union has denounced Iran’s deliveries of ballistic missiles to Moscow:

This transfer is a direct threat to European security and represents a substantive material escalation from the provision of Iranian UAVs and ammunition, which Russia has used in its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine.

The EU’s position on Iran’s involvement in Russia’s war has always been clear. The EU has repeatedly strongly cautioned Iran against transfers of ballistic missiles to Russia.

The EU will respond swiftly and in coordination with international partners, including with new and significant restrictive measures against Iran, including the designation of individuals and entities involved with Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programmes, and in this regard is considering restrictive measures in Iran’s aviation sector as well.

France has summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires in Paris over the transfer of the missiles.

UPDATE 0833 GMT:

At least 10 civilians have been killed and 41 wounded by Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

Among the four slain in the Donetsk region in the east were three Red Cross workers preparing to distribute food and coal to vulnerable residents near the frontline. Two staff were among 10 injured.

One person was killed and four injured amid a strike on a house in the village of Krasnoiarske.

In the Kharkiv region in the northeast, four civilians were killed in the village of Borova. The Russians targeted emergency workers who responded to the initial attack, with three first responders among 10 people wounded.

Eight others were injured in the region.

In the Kherson region in the south, one person was killed and 10 injured. An agricultural enterprise, 16 houses, an outbuilding, and cars were damaged.

In the Sumy region in the north, a woman was killed during a Russian airstrike on the Yampillia community.

Ukraine air defenses downed 24 of 26 Iran-type attack drones launched by Russia overnight.

The UAVs were intercepted over the Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.

UPDATE 0652 GMT:

Russia has revoked the accreditation of six British diplomats in Moscow.

The State security service FSB declared on Friday that it has documents establishing that a UK Foreign Office department, responsible for eastern Europe and central Asia, was coordinating what “the escalation of the political and military situation”. The department had been tasked with ensuring Russia’s strategic defeat in its war against Ukraine.

The specific offense of the diplomats, said an FSB official, was meetings with journalists from the Russian outlet Novaya Gazeta, and with human rights activists from Civic Assistance and International Memorial.

In this connection, on the basis of documents provided by the Federal Security Service of Russia and as a response to the numerous unfriendly steps taken by London, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, in cooperation with the agencies concerned, has terminated the accreditation of six members of the political department of the British Embassy in Moscow in whose actions signs of spying and sabotage were found.

UPDATE 0553 GMT:

Romania has confirmed that Thursday’s Russian missile strike on a cargo ship carrying Ukrainian wheat was inside the Romanian exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea.

The vessel, destined for Egypt, was struck around 55 km (34 miles) from the Romanian port of Sfantu Gheorghe. There were no casualties.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy commented:

Ukraine’s food deliveries to African and Middle Eastern countries are critical….

We are waiting for the world to react. Wheat and food security should never be targets for missiles.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Vladimir Putin has betrayed his concern that Ukraine’s allies will give Kyiv permission to carry out long-range strikes on targets inside Russia.

Putin wrapped up his worry in a threat, conveyed through a statement to a State TV reporter on Thursday:

This would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict.

It would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia. If that’s the case, then taking into account the change of nature of the conflict, we will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face.

After months of indecision and a Congressional hold-up of military aid, the Biden Administration approved delivery of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in April. However, they banned the use of the missiles, with a range of up to 300 km (186 miles) inside Russia.

The Administration also has denied permission for launches of UK-made Storm Shadows and French-supplied SCALPs.

However, Washington has appeared to shift its position this week, indicating that it may now allow the firing of the British and French missiles.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said alongside UK Foreign Minister David Lammy in Kyiv, that the US has been willing to adapt its policy.

Citing Iran’s reported supply of ballistic missiles as a “significant and dangerous escalation”, Lammy implied the Storm Shadows may be deployed.

“European officials” say US President Joe Biden is on the verge of approving the long-range strikes, as long as they are not with the US-supplied ATACMS.

Other officials said the two governments are discussing provision of American navigation data to assist the British cruise missiles in their targeting.

Biden is meeting UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Washington on Friday.

British officials said the decision has already been made to allow Ukraine to use the Storm Shadows. It will not be announced publicly by Biden and Starmer, they explained, but the Blinken-Lammy trip to meet Zelenskiy would not have occurred had there been no positive outcome.

En route to Washington, Starmer told reporters, “Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away. Ukraine has the right to self-defense.”