Co-published with The Conversation:
EA on Monocle Radio: Why Israel-Gaza Is Unlikely to Derail Kamala Harris and Democrats
Across 6,149 miles and two continents, this was a moment that linked Israel, Gaza, and the US Presidential election in reality and illusion.
In Tel Aviv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that Israel had accepted a “bridging” proposal to move towards a ceasefire in its 10 1/2 months of mass killing of more than 40,000 people — the large majority civilians, most of them women and children — in Gaza. He insisted that it was up to Gaza’s Hamas leadership to say Yes.
But Israeli as well as Hamas officials said that there had been no movement in talks in Qatar. That was far from surprising, given that Israel had assassinated Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital Tehran on July 31.
Israel’s negotiators — Mossad director David Barnea, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, and Gen. Nitzan Alon — had told Netanyahu in a Sunday briefing that after months of negotiations, a deal based on the Prime Minister’s positions is not possible.
So as Blinken made his statement, Netanyahu was telling the families of hostages held by Hamas that he was “not sure there will be a deal”. Under no circumstances would Israel’s forces withdraw from part of Gaza, the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors.
The Hostage Families Forum responded, “The Prime Minister’s remarks are effectively a torpedoing of the hostage deal. Netanyahu won’t face that abandoning the hostages leads to their being murdered in captivity.”
In Chicago’s United Center, as a group of pro-Palestine protesters outside called for an end to the Israeli attacks, the Democratic National Convention was honoring President Joe Biden. The crowd said, “Thank you, Joe,” while also showing relief that he had belatedly stepped aside for Vice President Kamala Harris in the campaign for November’s election.
Biden, who bear-hugged Netanyahu 11 days after Hamas’s mass killing and abduction of Israelis and foreign nationals last October and who never withdrew US support, had his own illusory declaration:
We’ll keep working to bring hostages home, end the war in Gaza, and bring peace and security to the Middle East….I wrote a peace treaty for Gaza. A few days ago, I put forward a proposal that brought us closer to that goal than we’ve been since October 7th.
In a surprise appearance, Harris paid tribute to Biden, “Joe, thank you for your historic leadership….We are forever grateful to you.
The Democratic nominee did not venture any statement on Israel and Gaza. So left hanging was the question: could both the illusion of “ceasefire” and the reality of Netanyahu’s non-stop killing could defeat Blinken, Biden, and her — if not Hamas — in November?
Overcoming Gaza
A month ago, the conventional wisdom among many analysts was that Israel-Gaza could cost Democrats the election. In the swing state of Michigan, there are officially 211,405 Arab Americans, with some estimates of up to 500,000. That group’s votes could be decisive, given the margins of less than 11,000 in the 2016 election and just over 150,000 in 2020.
But then Harris replaced Biden on July 21. Within days, a deficit of 3-7% in polling turned into an advantage of 3-4%, a turnaround which has been sustained by a surging campaign.
Suddenly, the Arab-American vote did not appear to be decisive. And beyond Michigan, Harris was galvanizing young voters, not alienating them because of the Middle East.
Some of this may be due to Harris’s distance from Biden on the issue. This spring, while not breaking from the Administration’s support of Israel, she began putting an emphasis on the welfare of Gaza’s civilians. They should be protected both from attacks and from humanitarian crisis.
In early April, she put down a marker when she commented on a phone call between Biden and Netanyahu:
“We will make sure Israel is never left without an ability to defend itself. At the same time, if there are not changes to their approach, it’s very likely we’re going to change our approach.
In a campaign rally in Michigan on August 7, Harris stumbled when interrupted by protesters. She chided them, “You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
Recognizing the error, the Vice President’s staff prepared her for the next rally in Arizona two days later. This time, she responded to the interruption of “Free, free Palestine”: “I have been clear: now is the time to get a ceasefire deal and get the hostage deal done.”
The Three Realities
That line is not enough for some activists, but the wider context for the campaign is that most prospective voters will have priorities other than Gaza.
On the eve of the Convention, Politico headlined, “Full Steam Ahead” for “at least major protests”. The “Abandon Biden” movement relaunched as “Abandon Kamala Harris” with an all-day conference in Chicago on Sunday.
But on Monday, they were no more than a ripple against the wave of unity inside the United Center, with the acclamation of Biden and the enthusastic ovation for Harris.
If the tide is turning, it does not appear to be because of Gaza. To the contrary, Harris and her popular Vice Presidential pick Tim Walz not only consolidated polling leads in Michigan and Wisconsin and erased Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania. States which appeared lost to the Trumpists on Biden’s watch are now in play: Harris has reversed deficits of up to 8% to take leads in Arizona and North Carolina, erased Trump’s advantage in Nevada, and closed to within 1-2% in Georgia.
At the Convention, Harris fired up the crowd, “This November we will come together and declare with one voice, as one people — we are moving forward.”
She led them in a call and response, “When we fight, we win.”
Meanwhile, yet another Israeli airstrike on a Gazan school, operating as a shelter, killed 12 people.
Amid the illusion of the “ceasefire”, there are three realities: Netanyahu – facing an early election and a possible trial on bribery charges if the war ends – cannot afford one. Harris can win whether or not one is agreed. And Gaza’s civilians will continue to die without one.
