Labour Party leader Keir Starmer celebrates victory in the UK General Election, July 4, 2024 (CNN)
Co-published with the Centre for Brexit Studies:
COVID caught me the previous evening, the red line appearing within a minute of taking the test.
But it would not stop me from pulling an all-nighter. This was the first UK General Election in which I had cast a ballot. And — having resettled in Ireland in late March — it would be the first one since 1983 that I had watched from abroad.
I made a strong cup of tea. I poured an even stronger double of bourbon. And, with soft light over the Irish Sea behind me, I awaited the ten strikes of Big Ben heralding the exit poll.
A Glimpse of 1997
A month earlier I had not even bothered to open the UK section of The Guardian. There were other elections, for Europe, in which Britain had no part and which were my introduction to Irish politics. There were daily walks along the coast, on the beach, to the 3 Lighthouses, and in the hills. There was a different way of life to be lived.
But I was drawn in, not as a participant but as an observer. This was going to be an epic reckoning with the satisfying final scene of the bad guys and gals being carted off to oblivion. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak — a lost if hyper-wealthy man overwhelmed by his job — had called the election in a downpour, his pleads of “Haven’t We Done Well?” answered by a lone protester playing “Things Can Only Better”.
That single by D-Ream was the Labour Party’s tune in 1997, the previous water-cooler moment in British elections when Tony Blair and Co. swept 418 of 650 seats. I watched the downfall of Tories such as the ethically-challenged Neil Hamilton, defeated by the distinguished war correspondent Martin Bell, and the soon-to-be-imprisoned Jonathan Aitken. I cheered the breakthrough of 120 women going to Westminister.
And, yes, I saw the iconic moment when Michael Portillo, the Conservative Defense Minister who had crafted his entire life to ascend to 10 Downing Street, realized he had been defeated by a young, openly gay, and throughly decent man named Stephen Twigg.
The enthusiasm of that evening and the days after had long been drained by Iraq 2003, by the Great Austerity, by the pandemic, and, of course, by the self-inflicted wound of Brexit. But, 27 years later, I felt the pull of a comeuppance for some of those responsible for the dimunition of hope.
Watching The Landslide
The BBC, in a serious pose practiced for decades, follows Big Ben with the dramatic pause, drawing out each introductory word for the exit poll, then intoning: “A Labour landslide”; “majority of 176”; “410 seats”.
As expected. Still, I do a small fist pump at the confirmation.
Conservatives 131. A shocker, a historic low return for the Tories, below the 156 of 1906 and 165 of 1997. But a small wave of disappointment: they have avoided the prospect of 75, 65, even 60 seats in some pre-election models.
Liberal Democrats 61. A bigger fist pump about The Little Party That Could this time around, rebounding from only 8 seats in 2019.
Reform 13. F***. The expletive is knee-jerk at the prospect that the hate-mongering, xenophobic faction mobilized for one man’s ego might again suck all the oxygen out of UK society.
At least the Greens are projected to win a second seat in the Commons.
Not much of substance will happen for the next three to four hours. The BBC’s Establishment seriousness will give way to the pantomime of Who Will Have The Fastest Count? and Jeremy Vine jumping about on CGI graphics far too bright for midnight eyes.
I switch to Channel 4, which I find has seized the high ground of analysis and insight. Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Emily Maitlis, the best anchor to be unjustly thrown out of Newsnight by the BBC, are presiding. Alastair Campbell, long removed from his role of Labour’s Dark Doctor of Spin in the Iraq disaster, and Rory Stewart, removed from the Conservative Party for being too honest and forthright, are there.
Harriet Harman, honored that day as a Baroness after 42 years in the Commons, is on the panel. Kwasi Kwarteng, seeking redemption for his role as Chancellor in the 49-day Truss Government in 2022, has the middle seat. On the extreme right is Nadine Dorries, the ex-Culture Minister whose achievement was a place on “I’m A Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here” — tonight, she shouts over everyone and insists her friend Boris Johnson should return as Prime Minister.
On another table, Mhairi Black — who stepped down as an MP because of the toxic culture in the House of Commons — is honest and incisive about the failure of the Scottish Nationalist Party, the night’s other big loser. To her right, a grumpy, hunched woman grimaces as if she is sucking lemons. Once Ann Widdecombe was a Conservative Home Secretary. Now, having travelled via Strictly Come Dancing and Celebrity Big Brother, she is the vanguard of Nigel Farage’s vanity project Reform. Her task tonight will be to replace any substantial discussion with proclamations of how the Conservatives have betrayed her and, she maintains, all of England.
Through the drip-feed of the initial results — for the record, Houghton and Sunderland South took the Fastest Count crown, coming in at about 75 minutes — the discussions, despite Dorries and Widdecombe, have depth. There is consideration of how the Liberal Democrats, who have usually been a figure of fun for most of the UK media, made their mark with a focus on health and social care. There is caution that the coming years, despite the marked change in government, will be Labour Austerity, Labour Brexit. Harman concisely forecasts “civil war in the Conservative Party. They will be a shambles.” Nadim Zahawi, Chancellor for two months under Boris Johnson, shares the concern.
John McDonnell, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor during the descent of the Corbyn years, speaks of the challenge when 30% of the children in his outer London constituency live in poverty. The panel sets the likely contrast for the new Government of “Get The Party Started” v. “Managed Decline”.
But then the mood rallies. The boisterous trio of Carol Vorderman, entrepreneur Richard Walker, and Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall are unrestrained in hailing the demise of 14 years of bad Government. They point not only to the Labour alternative but also those of the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and a politics which values people rather than self-interest and division.
Rachel Reeves, soon to be the UK’s first woman Chancellor, promises in her acceptance speech that there will be a “focus on delivery” and “a growing economy”. Keir Starmer speaks in his of “politics as public service”.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan emphasizes the fundamental, “Reassure people that mainstream politics works.”
The Fall of the “Big Beasts”
Finally, about 3 a.m., the portents of landslide are fulfilled. Defense Minister Grant Shapps turns an 11,000-vote majority into a 3,800-vote defeat. The moment lacks the drama of Portillo’s 1997 exit, but only because it was so anticipated — this will be only the first of the “big beasts” to fall.
Former Conservative leader Iain Duncan-Smith survives, but only because of a split in the local Labour Party. The more significant act is that of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Defending a small majority in the newly-drawn Godalming and Ash, he wins by doing the unthinkable: campaigning day-on-day in the consituency, rather than posing on TV or in ill-fated photo opportunities. It is a Conservative win which I half-welcome: at least one high-profile pragmatist remains against the hard-right dog whistlers — Braverman, Patel, Badenoch, Jenrick — who will vie for the Tory leadership.
But Education Secretary Gillian Keegan — “Does anyone ever say you’ve done a f***ing good job?” — is out. So are Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer, Science Secretary Michelle Donelan, Chief Whip Simon Hart, and Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer. Welsh Secretary David TC Davies is defeated — an appropriate goodbye, given that the Tories lost all of their seats in the country.
In May 2023, Penny Mordaunt was being touted as a future Prime Minister after the viral video of her carrying of the ceremonial sword at the coronation of King Charles III. Now she is speaking at the last rites — for now — of her ambitions as she congratulates Labour’s Amanda Martin: “Democracy is never wrong….You can speak of all you like about security and freedom, but you can’t have other if you are afraid….That is why we lost.”
Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will retain his seat. But he looks nervous and a bit petrified as the returning officer gives the count in his Richmond constituency. Gone is the bluster of the campaign’s final days. Instead, he acknowledges, “The British people have delivered a sobering verdict,” and — in a likely glance at the threat of Donald Trump across the Atlantic — hails a “peaceful transition of power”.
His prospective successors as Conservative leader are already circling. Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch implicitly launches her bid, “Conservatives have lost their trust and people have lost their trust in politics.” Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman does not even bother with subtlety: “I’m sorry that my party didn’t listen to you….The country deserves better.”
Meanwhile, there is news on other fronts. The exit poll, so accurate in the past, has vastly inflated the Reform Party’s storming of democratic barricades. Labour incumbents easily hold seats such as Barnsley North and Barnsley South.
Lee Anderson, the former Conservative Party chairman pushed out because of his Islamophobia and conspiracy theories, race-baits in his victory — “I want my country back” — and Nigel Farage preens in Clacton. But in the end, Reform are down to a Gang of Five, with egos more likely to be posturing on outlets such as Talk TV and GB News rather than in the House of Commons.
The Liberal Democrats are exceeding even the high bar in the exit poll. They easily pass 60 seats, overturning Conservatives throughout the Blue Belt in southern England and making inroads in Scotland with the SNP’s collapse. They will finally reach 72 on Friday afternoon when Inverness, Skye, and West Ross-shire is the last constituency to declare.
The Greens have held Brighton Pavilion and fulfilled the exit poll’s prediction of a gain in Bristol Central, defeating Labour’s Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire. And there’s more, to the cheers of Fearnley-Whittingstall in the Channel 4 studio — a third seat in Waveney Valley, a fourth in North Herefordshire.
Jeremy Corbyn, turfed out of the Labour Party in 2020 after his turbulent reign as leader, is still in the Commons as an independent with a comfortable majority in Islington North, the constituency he has represented since 1983.
George Galloway, the former Labour MP, has finally gone one loud step too far with his self-promotion and agitation — he doesn’t even show up at the Rochdale count for confirmation of his defeat. But there are other independents who will dent Labour’s triumph, winning seats largely because of discontent over Israel’s mass killings in Gaza: Adnan Hussain in Blackburn, Ayqub Khan in Birmingham Perry Barr, Iqbal Mohamed in Dewsbury and Batley, Shockat Adam in Leicester South.
And there is the curious anomaly of watching UK elections from the Irish Republic. In London, there are only fleeting references to what is happening in the Six Counties and 18 Parliamentary seats. But here, coverage in the rest of the UK is relegated to BBC 2 — on BBC 1, wire-to-wire commentary is examining a changing era in the North. Sinn Fein has for the first time won both the most seats — 7 — and the largest share of the vote (27%). Ian Paisley Jr. has finally lost the North Antrim seat that he or his father held since 1970, out-flanked by an even more stauch Unionist.
Goodbye to The Lettuce
It is now close to daybreak, but still there are moments to be captured live.
I fix another strong cup of tea and watch the pop-up but well-planned rally in London. The crowd, carefully arranged for the cameras, is buzzing. Keir Starmer is animated and passionate, leaving behind the measured, cautious lawyer of the campaign: “Change begins now….Sunlight of hope….Get our future back” — Country first, party second”. And, in a marker of how far Labour has moved since Corbyn in 2019, an emphasis on “security” and “protecting our borders”.
The celebration is disrupted with a reminder of how fragile the UK remains — and what is needed to counter the hate exploiting that fragility. At the count in Birmingham, Labour MP Jess Phillips is enduring abuse from men in the audience linked with Galloway’s “Workers Party”. Tired and shaken, she talks of how women have been threatened and harassed during the campaign, how she had to turn down an offer by the family of Jo Cox — the MP murdered in 2016 by a supporter of the hard right — to attend the count, how she didn’t bring her children “because they deserve better”.
But she pushes back against the “pretty gruesome” spectacle: “I understand that a strong woman standing up to you is met with such reticence.” She contrasts the hecklers with the everyday decency of the multi-cultural community in Birmingham Yardley, the pride that the constituency instilled in her parents and in her, and the progress that women are making in British politics.
In a more sedate hall in North East Somerset, Jacob Rees Mogg — the Tory MP posing as a 19th-century aristocrat and the former “Minister of Brexit Opportunities” — is facing his reckoning. He has done so with good grace across the airwaves throughout the night, smiling at the Conservative collapse around him and battling away questions about the future with a grin.
Labour’s majority is more than 5,300 votes on a swing of almost 20%. All the candidates applaud Rees-Mogg. He and the others applaud the victor Dan Norris. In contrast to the turmoil of the Brexit shambles, in which Jacob played his part, it is all very polite and English.
My wife gently nudges me from my dozing. “The Lettuce. You have forgotten The Lettuce.”
For a moment, I try to sort out a hallucination about the grocery list. Then I recall that while the other Conservative big beasts had come and gone, Liz Truss — already commemorated her 49-day reign as Prime Minister, the shortest in British history — has not shown up.
And she still hasn’t. The recording officer and the other candidates in South West Norfolk are on the stage. They have been waiting restlessly for several minutes. The audience has begun a slow hand clap.
Truss finally materializes on the far right of the dais, stiff and stone-faced. The reason for the delay and the demeanour is evident: having enjoyed a majority of 26,195 in 2019, The Lettuce has converted it into a 630-vote margin for Labour.
Unlike Rees-Mogg, she does not applaud. She does not, as is customary, give a concession speech or best wishes to the new MP, Terry Jermy.
Hope and Change?
Fatigue, and the still-lingering COVID, finally overtake adrenaline. I hide under the covers for a few hours, until the traditions of Starmer going to King Charles III and then to 10 Downing Street.
Elation is still bordered with concern. Reform’s “Gang of Five” will be a small, ego-ridden gaggle in the Commons — when and if they show up — but they will be nasty, brutish, and across their toxic TV and radio outlets. The Conservatives are likely to veer hard right in their Brexiteer, car-crash, far-from-joy ride. The Liberal Democrats and Greens will have good intentions but, given the legacy of first-past-the-post politics, will struggle to get a look in.
And Starmer’s Labour, however competent, however pragmatic, will be governing with one hand tied behind their back. Only 24 hours before the vote, the new UK Prime Minister said there would be no return to the Single Market, let alone the European Union, in his lifetime.
Which means that during my lifetime — I’m also 61 — the UK will likely remain in its self-inflicted economic malaise, cutting itself off from partnerships that might bring progress and a bit of prosperity. And if/when that malaise continues, then the politics of resentment, frustration, and anger might bring destructive, exploitative politicians to the front bench in Westminster.
But for now, I go to sleep with a recognition beyond both joy and worry. An unexpected recognition that I would have not countenanced at the beginning of the evening.
For having separated myself, emotionally and physically, from the country where I lived for almost 40 years, I realize about this damaged, often discordant, far-from-United Kingdom….
….That I still care.
And if I still care, then perhaps I can rest and recharge with a glimmer of hope.
