Iran’s Supreme Leader with President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian in a ceremony in Tehran, July 12, 2024
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Iran’s Managed Election: Reformist Pezeshkian Wins as Regime Chooses Legitimacy
Since the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s President on July 5, a question has circulated inside and outside the Islamic Republic?
In 2009, the Supreme Leader intervened to declare the re-election of the conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, even though the reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi likely led in the first round. More than a million Iranians marched on the streets. The protests were repressed, and Mousavi, fellow candidate and former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, and Mousavi’s wife, academic and artist Zahra Rahnavard, have been under strict house arrest since February 2011.
So why did Ayatollah Khamenei accept the triumph of a reformist 15 years later?
The answer, from “five people with knowledge of the matter” speaking with Reuters’ Parisa Hafezi: a combination of Iran’s ongoing economic predicament and the prospect of a disastrous turnout of voters of 13% — just over a quarter of the historical low set in the 2021 Presidential election.
An Election For The Regime’s Legitimacy
On May 19, hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, selected by the Supreme Leader’s office to win the 2021 election, was killed in a helicopter crash as he returned from a visit to neighboring Azerbaijan.
Khamenei soon gathered his most trusted aides at his his residence in Tehran. The senior officials and security aides, Khamenei’s advisor and former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, and two senior Revolutionary Guards commanderswould meet three times within days.
The Supreme Leader expressed his concern about the low turnout damaging the regime’s claim to legitimacy. He commanded those present to find a solution.
Khamenei emphasized that Iran needed a President who could appeal to different parts of society, but who would not challenge the ruling theocracy. Several names were considered, with the Supreme Leader suggesting Pezeshkian, a surgeon and former Health Minister.
The birth of the Green Movement and Mousavi’s candidacy in 2009 brought forth demands for widespread changes for rights, justice, and political and social space in the Islamic system. In contrast, Pezeshkian was seen as unlikely to propose any major shift in Iranian policy or its support for militias across the region.
The doctor’s mild manner, Khamenei’s advisors said, would appease disgruntled Iranians, ensure domestic stability, and add a trusted ally for the process to choose a successor to the 85-year-old Khamenei.
A “regional source close to Iranian circles of power” added that the election was engineered to defuse tensions from the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests. The demonstrations were sparked in September by the death in custody of Mahsi Amini, 22, after she was detained and reportedly beaten by “morality police” for “inappropriate attire”.
Supreme Leader’s “Flawless Plan”
Pezeshkian was encouraged by former officials with links to the Supreme Leader’s Office to register for the June 28 first round of the election. All other reformist applicants were disqualified by the Guardian Council, the 12-member body whose members are appointed by the Supreme Leader and the Parliament.
Meanwhile, according to the five sources, the Supreme Leader’s office ensured that the hardliner Saeed Jalili, Iran’s former nuclear negotiator, and the conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf were approved by the Guardian Council. With votes split between them, it would be harder for both to make it to the runoff.
Pezeshkian was not told of the deliberations led by the Supreme Leader. One person close to him said he did not expect to be approved by the Guardian Council.
A Council spokesman insisted, “It was a transparent and impartial election.”
In the July 5 runoff, Pezeshkian defeated Jalili with 53.7% of the vote. Turnout was 49.8%, just above the record low of 2021.
Tehran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz summarized:
It was a flawless plan by the Supreme Leader…which guaranteed the survival of the Islamic Republic.
Pezeshkian will avoid any crisis at home, whether with the nation or the establishment. That will allow top leaders to decide about the succession [to the 85-year-old Khamenei and plan it in a calm atmosphere.
The new President implicitly agrees. He said on State TV, “I thank the Supreme Leader. If it weren’t for him, I don’t think my name would have easily come out of ballot boxes.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader’s strategic move with Pezeshkian aims to stabilize and legitimize the regime amidst low turnout and unrest. ️
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The claim about a prediction of a 13% turnout is well below even that of “Gamaan”, an Internet survey poll conducted by two oppositionist academics based in the Netherlands https://gamaan.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/GAMAAN-Survey-Report-Snap-Elections-2024-English.pdf
“According to the survey, with about 10 days remaining until the presidential elections, approximately 22% of the target population stated that they will definitely vote in the election, while about 65% stated that they will not vote;about 12% are still undecided.”
Phone polls conducted by Iranian organisation were predicting 40-55% even before the announcment of the Guardians Council’s vetting process.
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