I joined Australia’s ABC News on Thursday to analyze the status of Russia’s 27-month invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow — facing a limited window before the belated arrival of US and European aid to Kyiv — tries to seize territory in the east and northeast and carries out daily missile and drone strikes on civilian areas.

Chatting with Beverley O’Connor, I explain how Russia’s frontline gains, while getting excited media coverage, are limited so far. I consider the war beyond the frontlines, including Ukraine’s attacks on vital Russian positions — oil refineries, naval and air assets, and supply and logistics — in Crimea and inside Russia.

And I look at the economic and propaganda fronts before concluding that Vladimir Putin’s best — perhaps last — hope for “victory” is in his political warfare, exploiting pro-Kremlin activists, and the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

After all, “this is a marathon, not a sprint”.