Iran President Ebrahim Raisi (L) with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (File)
Beginner’s Guide: What Now for Iran’s Regime After Death of Its President?
UPDATE 1751 GMT:
Alistair Bunkall, the Middle East for Sky News, and I joined RTE Radio 1’s Claire Byrne to analyze further the position of the Iranian regime at home and abroad after the deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
We discuss the political, economic, and social situation and evaluate the regime’s options.
Listen to Discussion
ORIGINAL ENTRY: I joined France 24 English on Monday to evaluate the significance of the deaths of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash in the northwest of the country.
I discuss the domestic political situation, with hardline and conservative factions vying for the favor of the Supreme Leader, and who might be put in the President’s seat in “managed” elections in July.
I look at Raisi’s role in the Iranian system as a placeholder for the interests of the Supreme Leader and hardliners, and I evaluate the likelihood of unrest amid ongoing political, economic, and social problems.
We’ve seen historic lows in voter participation in recent elections. This doesn’t mean that Iranians want to rise up and replace the regime, but many of them — after years of being ground down economically, socially, and politically — are in a state of resignation about what their leaders are doing and where they go next.
[Editor’s Note: There is a big difference between the reporting of Bozorgmehr for the Financial Times and the propaganda of the Iran regime and the commenter.
Bozorgmehr refers to “millions” as the total number of mourners “during a three-day procession in five big cities”. Regime outlets claimed “millions” for the turnout in *each* of the cities.]
And, finally, confirmation of the “MILLIONS” who attended Raisi’s funeral processions: https://www.ft.com/content/61c343e7-5ce2-4719-9d99-526ce5c4a7be
“Iran’s late president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last weekend, was buried on Thursday after millions of mourners paid tribute during a three-day procession in five big cities.”
Najmeh Bozorgmehr is a journalist based in Iran who works for the Financial Times. Mashhad drew bigger crowds than did Tehran, Qom, Birjand and Tabriz put together.
Just too bad these “mourners” are not iranians. Well, probably iranians were partying in celebrations.
Iran claims over 100,000 Afghan immigrants attended Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral
https://www.khaama.com/iran-claims-over-100000-afghan-immigrants-attended-ebrahim-raisis-funeral/
“The General Directorate of Foreign Nationals and Immigration of Khorasan Razavi claimed that over one hundred thousand Sunni and Shia Afghan immigrants participated in the funeral of Ebrahim Raisi.”
Massive crowds gather in Tehran for Iranian president’s funeral procession: https://www.9news.com.au/world/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-funeral-tehran-massive-crowds/1b4fb8fc-a1c0-4f81-8024-9ba232a9e8ce
One of the few Western media reports with a headline that is reflective of reality.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg66l42ngnro
BBC journalist David Gritten writes: “Tens of thousands of people have taken part in the funeral processions in recent days” despite footage showing hundreds of thousands, if not millions in total, on the streets of Tabriz, Qom, Tehran, Birjand and Mashhad.
He goes on: “However, many more people have stayed at home, with some even celebrating the president’s death despite prosecutors warning that they could face prosecution. Millions despised Raisi for overseeing the deadly crackdown on the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests that erupted in 2022, a year after he took office.”
It is a given that more people stay at home than go to demonstrations. However, today in Mashhad, it really did look like the entire city’s population was out on the streets. The “millions” who hated Raisi is not based on any actual figure. The claims of people celebrating is based on a handful of videos on soclal media and comments of users/bots.
“The claims of people celebrating is based on a handful of videos on soclal media and comments of users/bots.”
You are just too stupid, we established that a long time ago. Did you expect people to come out and dance in the streets when your murdering regime thugs already had announced publicly what would happen if anyone in media made or public made any expression of what happened in this episode??
You are really genetically defective.
[Editor’s Note: The Iranian regime’s line via State outlet Press TV….]
How Raeisi revitalized Iran’s intl. standing with pragmatic foreign policy: https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/05/23/726063/Long-Read–How-Raeisi-revitalized-Iran-s-intl–standing-with-pragmatic-foreign-policy
The Iranian president is regarded by many in the West as a powerless administrator, especially concerning foreign policy. However, the fact is that as head of both the Cabinet and the SNSC, and the person who travels abroad to meet with foreign leaders, he sets the tone and direction for the country. Under Khatami. Iran reached out to the West and the Gulf states. Under Ahmadinejad, Iran reached out to Russia, China, Latin America and Africa. Under Rouhani, Iran pivoted to the West again. Raisi did pretty much the same as Ahmadinejad but focused even more strongly on regional countries, repairing relations broken during Rouhani’s tenure. Foreign policy success will be Raisi’s enduring legacy.
Raisi’s Economic Legacy: Trail of Unkept Promises and Escalating Hardships
https://iranwire.com/en/economy/129797-raisis-economic-legacy-trail-of-unkept-promises-and-escalating-hardships/
It is very interesting that how fast the regime and its tentacles are scheming over how and what happened to raisi….
The regime stray dog aka reza/varhan is filling the space about the next thing. But he doesn’t have any questions about the possible causes of raisi’s demise….
Iran may hold the presidential election on June 28th (with a possible second round on July 5th): https://www.isna.ir/news/1403023123353
Registration could begin as early as next Tuesday. All factions will now need to decide who they want to support.
More information about the forthcoming election: https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1403/02/31/3089822
Registration of candidates: May 30th till June 3rd
Vetting by the Guardians Council: June 4th till June 11th
Campaigning by the approved candidates: June 12th till June 27th
Election day: June 28th
Run-off (possible): July 5th
Presidential inauguration: July 12th
Personally, I would like to see a contest between Mehrdad Bazrpash and Mohammad-Javad Jahromi, both in their early forties.
I always felt that Raisi should have completed his term as judiciary chief before running for president. His route to the Leadership did not involve becoming president also.
Patrick Wintour echoes the editor’s view that the “regime will choose a candidate and then run an election for show”: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/20/president-ebrahim-raisi-death-iran-election-analysis
“Recent experience suggests the regime will opt for the safety of an election in which its chosen candidate has no serious rival, even if this leads to a lower turnout and a disillusioned electorate.”
There is likely to be no single “regime candidate”. There will, rather, be a mix of conservative , moderate and likely reformist candidates drawn from the political elite after the vetting process is completed. Voters will be able to choose any one of them.
“I discuss the domestic political situation, with hardline and conservative factions vying for the favor of the Supreme Leader, and who might be put in the President’s seat in “managed” elections in July.”
Here is a list of potential candidates
1. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf: wants to be president but is facing re-election for the Speakership next week. He could be forced to remain in his current role.
2. Saeed Jalili: the former SNSC chief could make another bid for the presidency.
3. Mehrdad Bazprash: The transport minister, who accompanied Raisi to the dam, is young but also experienced.
4. Ezzatollah Zarghami: the Cultural Heritage minister is a conservative who has reached out to reformists.
5. Mohsen Rezai: The former IRGC chief has been in many presidential elections but has health problems.
6. Ali Larijani: the former Speaker was blocked last time but may decide to try again.
7. Ali Shamkhani: the former SNSC chief and defense minister is close to reformists and conservatives but was tainted by association with a British spy.
8. Mohammad-Javad Jahromi: the young and erudite former communications minister under Rouhani may fancy his chances.
9. Ali Motahari: approved by the Guardians Council to run for parliament, he could try his luck.
10. Mohammaed-Reza Aref: the former reformist VP under Khatami was approved to run in 2013 and could be a natural choice for reformists.
11. Eshaq Jahangiri: the former reforrmist VP was blocked to run last time owing to corruption charges but could try again.
12. Hassan Khomeini: a wild card – has the support of Khamenei but not many clerics. Popular with reformists.
13. Mohammad-Javad Zarif: the former foreign minister is unlikely to run but is popular.
14. Abdolnasser Hemmati: the former CBI head was approved to run last time and could do so again.
15. Masoud Pezeskhian: the veteran MP was not qualified last time but could try his luck again,
16. Masoumeh Ebtekar: the reformist politician and former student leader is the best prospect for a woman to run.