Vladimir Putin walks to his “inauguration” in the Kremlin, Moscow, Russia, May 7, 2024
EA-Times Radio Special: Will US Aid Help Turn Tide in Ukraine v. Russia’s Invasion?
UPDATE, MAY 9:
I spoke further with RTE’s Radio 1 on Thursday about Putin’s spectacle to maintain power in Russia and to cover up his failure in his invasion of Ukraine.
It’s essential. As long as his quest to conquer Ukraine is unfulfilled, the show must go on in Russia.
#UkraineWar
The conversation follows commentary by James Waterhouse, the BBC’s correspondent in Ukraine.
Listen to Discussion from 7:10
ORIGINAL ENTRY, MAY 8: A day after Vladimir Putin’s “inauguration”, I joined Times Radio on Tuesday for an 11-minute analysis of the reality and illusion of his power at home and in his invasion of Ukraine.
I evaluate how Putin is likely to maintain his leadership — despite economic, political, and military tensions — by manipulating the combination of autocracy and oligarchy in Russia.
But far from complementing “victory” in Ukraine, Putin’s spectacle is covering up his failure to conquer a neighboring country. While Russia may make marginal gains in the east of Ukraine, the window is closing before US and European aid reaches the frontline. And behind that frontline, Ukraine is hitting Putin’s forces hard with its missile and drone strikes.
What Putin wants to project is “I’m in charge here, I’m in control”.
To the extent that he has triumphed inside Russia against anyone who wanted to take his authority, he has succeeded.
But is he triumpant in Ukraine? That is far more problematic.
So, what will Ukraine’s backers offer Russia when the conflict ends? It seems both sides are going to have to make painful concessions. Will Ukraine have to sign a treaty similar to the one Austria signed in 1955, a declaration of neutrality? That might be acceptable to Russia. That was what Putin always wanted. And will the West be able to integrate Ukraine into the EU and other non-military institutions? What will happen to the pro-Russia Ukrainians who live in the breakaway republics? If Kiev gets those territories back, will the people in these breakaway republics be granted the degree of autonomy they were promised under the Minsk Accords?
Concerning the most recent developments: UK Foreign Minister Cameron and French President Macron’s stated intentions in recent days have backfired, now that Moscow has threatened to retaliate with strikes on French and British territory. So, it seems unlikely that there will be strikes on Russian territory using British missiles, and no French troops will be sent to Ukraine. We know that both countries’ ambassadors were called to the Foreign Ministry in Moscow. I’m sure Dr. Lucas wishes he had been a fly on the wall to hear all that was said at those meetings. So, what’s next for the West? What will the West do to prevent Ukraine’s military from collapsing?