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EA on BBC: It Ain’t Over Yet — The GOP’s Iowa Caucuses and What Happens Next
I joined Monocle Radio’s Vincent McAviney on Tuesday to analyze the threat to US foreign policy, alliances, and international security if Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025.
After the caveat that Trump is not yet the Republican nominee, let alone the winner of November’s election, I survey Trump’s incoherent and egotistical approach to foreign policy, his quest to destroy much of the US system, and his inner circle of advisors who will abet him — and sometimes press him to go even farther in the demolition.
I consider the possible effects on alliances such as NATO, the European Union, and partnerships in Asia; on support of Ukraine against the invasion of Trump’s friend Vladimir Putin; and on relations with China.
Listen to Discussion from 2:44:
Trump’s friend Vladimir Putin? Vladimir Putin does not consider Trump to be his friend. You can love someone who doesn’t love you back, but you can’t be friends with someone who doesn’t want to be your friend.
As for the foreign policy comparison: There were some genuine attempts to forge diplomatic relations with Washington’s enemies — e.g. DRPK. All the world has gotten from the Biden Admin is escalation. How can Prof. Lucas defend this? Biden’s foreign policy is far more militant than Trump’s. Trump knew that continued military assistance to Ukraine was going to lead to war. NATO military exercises are expected to take place in the next few months. What will it take, said Prof Richard Sakwa, on RT. One stray missile? Two stray missiles? Sakwa was right when he said that the post-Soviet states adopted Cold War thinking and a militant stance toward Russia so it could never re-merge as a great power. The nature of this conflict originated with Russia refusing to accept the legacy great-power status that Britain, Germany, and Japan were forced to accept — shadows of their former selves subordinated to Washington. Well, that’s not the Russian way. Russia continues to see itself as a great power. Russia will never subordinate itself to Washington. On these points, Sakwa is correct. Russia’s reaction to NATO expansion and a new cold war waged against is a surprising one to Prof. Lucas, but it shouldn’t be.