US troops killed in drone attack on Tower 22 outpost in Jordan, January 28, 2024: (L to R) Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett; Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46; Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24

I joined BBC Radio Ulster on Monday to explain Monday’s deadly drone attack by Iran-backed militias on US troops in Jordan.

Listen to Discussion from 24:56

I set out the Iranian oversight of the militias; the years of assaults on American personnel on bases in Syria and Iraq; and the US response.

See also 3 US Troops Killed, 25+ Injured in Drone Attack in Jordan

Then, linking the escalation in attacks to the mass killings in Israel and Gaza, I analyze the possibilities of what happens next between Washington, Tehran, and other actors in the Middle East.

My best estimate is that the US will again strike the Iranian-backed militias in Syria. And the Americans may cooperate covertly with Israel, who has been carrying out a series of attacks on Iranian personnel inside and outside Iran….

There will be a calibration: the US wants to show the Iranians that they can’t do this, but at the same time it doesn’t want the situation to escalate out of control.

See also A Weakened Iran Regime Lashes Out — and Gets Punched in the Nose